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The Kākā by Bernard Hickey

Bernard Hickey

Bernard Hickey and friends explore Aotearoa’s political economy together. thekaka.substack.com

news politics

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24:23

Interview: RBNZ wary of any administered inflation...

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/02/24

Long story short, I interviewed Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Paul Conway yesterday in the full video above about:* the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to cut the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points to 3.75% last week;* the bank’s projection in its Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) for three more 25 basis point cuts over the next six months or so;* its forecasts for modest recovery in economic growth later in the year to start reducing unemployment, now that interest rates are

8:52

Govt set to hike insurance costs $400/year

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/02/23

Long stories short, the top six things that stood out to me in our political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Monday, February 24:* The Government is considering allowing the EQC to increase its levy tacked on to household insurance bills by around $400 per year or as much as 72%;* Inexorable Government pressure downwards on education spending growth and the exodus of skilled workers overseas has increased this year’s teacher shortages to 1,150;* Napier plans to close its library for

14:38

A mini-hoon on the OCR cut & the housing market

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/02/19

Long story short, I spoke to Core Logic Head of Research Nick Goodall & Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) CEO Jen Baird for a 15 minute mini-Hoon last night after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced it had cut the Official Cash Rate 50 bps to 3.75% and projected another 75 bps of cuts this year. We also spoke in the video and podcast above about the REINZ's January sales data showing another slight fall in house prices with a rise in sales volumes. In essence, we agreed the

9:15

'Where will your kids raise your grand-kids?'

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/02/18

After seeing yet-more-months of political debate and policy decisions to ‘go for growth’ by pulling the same old cheap migration and cheap tourism levers without nearly-enough infrastructure, or any attempt to address the same old lack of globally conventional tax incentives for investment, I thought it would be worth issuing a challenge to the opponents of tax reform in the form of an open letter, which can be read, listened to and shared publicly because I’ve taken the paywall off this one

5:36

The ambulances at the bottom of our cliffs are full

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/02/17

Long stories short, the top six things in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Tuesday, February 18 are:* A NZ Herald investigation published yesterday into the performance of EDs has found almost a third of a million patients were not seen within the recommended times in the first half of last year;* ED doctor Gary Payinda pointed in his substack post yesterday at international research showing overcrowding and ‘bed blocking’ resulted in the deaths of one in every 83

4:56

‘The funds for infrastructure projects need to be...

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/02/16

Long stories short, the top six things in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Monday, February 17 are:* Engineering New Zealand CEO Richard Templer said yesterday hundreds of engineers are losing their jobs and leaving the country as work dries up due to stalling infrastructure projects;* Templer pleaded for the Government to free up funds to restart stalled projects, but Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop simply responded the Government had approved projects,

8:13

Recession & local protests drag National below Labour

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/02/15

Long stories short, the top six things in our political economy around housing, climate and poverty in the week to Sunday, February 16 were:* Leading and lagging indicators showed the economy is struggling to get out of its three-year-long recession in per-capita terms, with some green shoots in manufacturing and trucking being over-shadowed by another fall in retail spending and confirmation of the loss of over 200 jobs at Kinleith.* Poll results published over the last week showed support for the

5:13

Concrete production slumps to 2014 levels

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/02/12

Long stories short, the top six things in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Thursday, February 13 are:* The coalition Government’s early 2024 ‘fiscal emergency’ freeze on funding, planning and building houses, schools, local roads and hospitals helped extend and deepen the economic and jobs recession through calendar 2024, as evident in concrete production figures released yesterday, which showed output fell 7.7% over 2024 to a five-year low that is 10% below 2019

8:24

Business doubts about National’s growth tactics growing

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/02/11

Long stories short, the top six things in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Wednesday, February 12 are:* Business frustration is growing about a lack of economic growth, with some arguing certainty and confidence is needed on Government-funded anchor projects such as hospitals, roads and railways as a priority, rather than deficit and public debt reduction;* The last National-led Government borrowed to kick-start an economy out of a deep recession, including the

18:41

First polls of 2025 show coalition losing

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/02/10

Long stories short, the top six things in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Tuesday, February 11 are:* Polls out overnight from Curia and Verian confirmed last week’s reading from a Talbot Mills’ poll that combined support for the governing coalition of National, ACT and New Zealand First fell behind the combined support for Labour, Green and Te Pāti Māori in the first six weeks of 2025;* The polls also showed voters thought the governing coalition had put the

14:31

Why NZ's new looser 'golden visa' won't 'turbocharge'...

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/02/09

Long stories short, the top six things in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Monday, February 10 are:* A loosening of rules to entice rich foreigners to invest more here is unlikely to “turbocharge our economic growth,” as claimed by the Government, because they will still have to rent when they live here, and most of the money will be lent to the Government in bonds, rather than invested directly in businesses;* The revelation in yesterday’s Herald on Sunday-$$$

13:48

Bernard’s Saturday Soliloquy for Feb 8

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/02/07

Long stories short, the top six things in our political economy around housing, climate and poverty in the six days to Saturday, February 8 were:* The Government announced it was stopping building new state houses to reduce its deficit and cut $5 billion of borrowing, but the housing market remains in crisis and reliant on the private sector to flood the market with affordable housing, which it has failed to do for 30 years;* Local business and political leaders are growing uneasy over the

16:11

Govt grasping at economic growth straws

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/02/06

Long stories short, the top six things in our political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Friday, February 7:* PM Christopher Luxon and Finance Minister Nicola Willis are set to announce another apparently splashy growth policy on Sunday of offering residence visas to wealthy migrants, but like the Invest NZ foreign direct investment policy announced last month, it is another low-impact and slow-burn measure that won’t do much to juice economic growth this year;* The political

14:49

Govt to sell billions of dollars worth of state...

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/02/04

Long stories short, the top six things in our political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Wednesday, February 5 are;* Housing Minister Chris Bishop yesterday announced Kāinga Ora would be stripped of its ‘non-core’ activities of developing new land, managing First Home loans and KiwiSaver withdrawals and consenting its own projects;* Bishop detailed plans to add a net 145 new homes this year before capping the state housing stock at 78,000 for the next 30 years, with renewal and

6:55

NZ jobs contracting as Australia's expands

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/02/03

Long stories short, the top six things in our political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Tuesday, February 4 are:* Social Development Minister Louise Upston yesterday announced a toughening of sanctions on jobseekers to force them into work, but job ads, beneficiary numbers and new employment data show those being sanctioned are trying to find work when there are fewer job ads and employment is flat to falling;* The tougher sanctions requiring more job-seeking and training come on the

15:33

How Donald Trump's tariff shock will change our...

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/02/02

Long stories short, the top six things in our political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Monday, February 3 are:* Donald Trump unveiled 25% across-the-board tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada on Sunday, plus a new 10% across-the-board tariffs on imports from China;* Canada and Mexico hit back with their own tariffs and China warned it was considering similar measures, with Trump warning again he plans to slap tariffs on Europe and elsewhere;* The tariffs are much deeper and

12:13

The chart deck calling b******t on Luxon’s ‘just...

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/01/31

Long stories short, the top six things in our political economy around housing, climate and poverty this week were:* PM Christopher Luxon and Transport Minister Chris Bishop announced the immediate reversal of the previous Labour Government’s 100 km/hr to 80 km/hr speed limit reductions on 38 sections of state highway, saying it would save around 3 minutes per trip on average;* Luxon trumpeted the news as another sign the Government was speeding up the economy, saying “we're really pleased that we

5:59

Govt sets 'shockingly unambitious' new climate target

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/01/30

Long stories short, the top six things in our political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Friday, January 30:* Climate Change & Energy Minister Simon Watts announced the Government’s new Paris Agreement target for emissions reductions last night, extending the targeted reduction to 51-55% by 2035 from 50% by 2030, which experts described as “shockingly unambitious” and out of step with our trading partners’ more aggressive plans;* The Climate Commission had recommended the Coalition

11:18

Luxon stumbles into toxic privatisation debate

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/01/28

Long stories short, the top six things in our political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Wednesday, January 29 are:* PM Christopher Luxon has either allowed himself or has been forced into a politically unpopular debate ahead of next year’s election about privatising state houses, parts of the health sector, power companies and polytechs;* Luxon and Finance Minister Nicola Willis have begun framing the issue as ‘there is no alternative’ (TINA) to asset sales to raise funds for public

16:57

Bernard’s Soliloquy for Monday Jan 27

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/01/26

Here’s the six things I think mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to January 27 around housing, climate and poverty:* PM Christopher Luxon bought himself another six months of National caucus peace and tried to reassure an increasingly restive business community by massively reshuffling his key personnel in the big-spending ministries after just a year in charge;* Luxon then refocused on ‘going for growth’ this year without a viable new strategy, launching a drive to bring in

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