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Markets Update with TreasuryONE

Markets Update with TreasuryONE

Risk management covers a range of responsibilities that must be managed well in order to secure and maintain the proper level of liquidity, control the organisations’ assets, bring exposures in line with risk appetite and ensure efficient processes in a dynamic environment. TreasuryONE’s highly skilled market risk team has navigated the risk areas of foreign exchange, interest rate, and commodities for the last 23 years on behalf of our clients and is regarded as experts in the design,

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All Episodes

00:07:33

Dominance of US dollar

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/04/25

Andre Cilliers on Kaya FM 95.9 - Breakfast

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00:01:56

Market trading sideways ahead of busy week

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/04/24

Market trading sideways ahead of busy week Currency markets traded sideways today with the data-filled week ahead of us. The Euro managed to breach the 1.10 level while the other majors are relatively flat for the day. The rand continues with the current range between R18.00 and R18.50, as local bond inflows remain lackluster. The US data could perhaps provide a pivotal view of future Fed Hikes, but the market is confident that the Fed will raise the interest rate by 25bps next week. Commodity

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00:01:12

Rand gains are still stubborn, and dollar data is...

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/04/21

Rand gains are still stubborn, and dollar data is still important The rand is still struggling to manage a break below R18.00. Poor local infrastructure and concerns over South Africa’s “Russian Ties” keep investors from flooding into our already high-yielding bonds. This week’s higher-than-expected inflation print and the Fed talking a big game has led to economists excepting another 2 x 25bps by the MPC this year to accommodate inflation and the Fed hiking cycle. That said, we close the week

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00:01:13

Rand testing the bottom of the range

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/04/20

Rand testing the bottom of the range For the third time in a week, the Rand is testing the bottom of the R18.00/50 range, as the Rand enjoyed the fact that the US dollar slipped a little today. The question now becomes whether the Rand is forming a base here or has enough momentum to break below R18.00. With little in the way of significant data left for the week, we suspect that the Rand could struggle to make a meaningful break of R18.00. We did see some weaker-than-expected employment numbers

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00:01:27

Global inflation is still sticky

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/04/19

Global inflation is still sticky Although some countries have seen inflation starting to turn downward, as we can see from the chart, the bulk of the countries' worldwide inflation is still in an uptrend (blue line), with the inflation only down slightly, depicted by the white line. Our local inflation came out higher than expected today, and the UK's inflation printed above 10% for the 7th month in a row. Inflation seems to be like toothpaste, easy to get out but a little tricky to put back

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00:01:19

Dollar gains fade, EM's stronger for the day

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/04/18

Dollar gains fade, EM's stronger for the day Recent dollar gains have faded today after Fed speakers' hawkish rhetoric has been the markets' main driver in the past few days. The dollar has lost ground across the board, and markets will likely turn their attention back to US Data out in the coming weeks. The rand has benefited from the softer dollar and improving risk sentiment, grinding out a 0.7% gain for the day and hovering below R18.20. Tomorrow's local CPI print is expected to

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00:01:07

Fed speakers not keen to pause on interest rate hikes

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/04/17

Fed speakers not keen to pause on interest rate hikes The dollar has been on the front foot for the day as Fed speakers are still talking about a big hiking cycle game. The market is fully pricing a 25bps hike at the May meeting and is only slightly pricing in more hikes after that. The 2Y treasury yields have rallied around 30bps in the last two days. The problem the Fed sits with is that the whole yield curve is almost now inverted, and given this shape, there is stubbornness in pricing a “Fed

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00:01:17

Dollar losing more ground

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/04/13

Dollar losing more ground US PPI for March came out below expectations, increasing 2.7% vs. the 3% expectation. Apart from that, Jobless claims increased for a third week in a row, perhaps indicating that the labour market is not as solid as the Non-Farm Payroll number indicated on Friday. The data followed a week where CPI also printed below expectations, and the Fed warned that they are weary of the stability in the financial sector, causing the Euro to bounce to 1.1050 and the pound to 1.2530

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00:01:34

US inflation

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/04/12

US inflation The inflation in the US was released, and now the question is will the Fed continue to hike interest rates? Headline inflation came out at 5% which is below the expected 5.2% in March. However, the Fed is keeping a firm eye on core inflation and services inflation. Looking at the graph one can see this remains stubbornly sticky. The market is still largely pricing in a 25bps hike at the May FOMC meeting. This will be the last inflation data print before the meeting. Rand reaction The

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00:01:19

Rand recovers after long weekend

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/04/11

Rand recovers after long weekend After Friday's US non-farm payroll number and a lack of liquidity in the market yesterday, we saw the Rand touching the R18.50 level. We expected the Rand to recover slightly as liquidity returned to the local market. That turned out to be the case as we saw the US dollar slipping against the Euro, and that bodes well for the Rand as the Rand clawed back some of its recent losses and is currently trading at R18.30 against the US dollar. The Rand has also lost

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00:01:10

Range-bound Rand

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/04/05

Range-bound Rand The rand has been looking comfortable between the R17.80 to R18.00 range, with the market moving in a very narrow range for most of the day. Late afternoon we have seen an increase in market movement, with the rand testing the R18.00 handle. The Greenback lost more ground against other majors early today but is grinding back late afternoon as markets perhaps look to close off positions ahead of the long weekend. ISM Non-Manufacturing data also came in below expectations after

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00:01:25

Weaker than expected U.S. data

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/04/04

Weaker than expected U.S. data U.S. job openings in February dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years, suggesting that the labour market was cooling. Along with the PMI number miss yesterday, data out of the U.S. is slipping a little. We will have to wait until Friday and the U.S. non-farm payroll number before we can see the state of a trend should the non-farm numbers disappoint. The U.S. dollar slipped further against the Euro as the pair traded above 1.0950 after starting the day below

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00:01:30

US PMI data lower

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/04/03

US PMI data lower Markets have been consolidating for most of the day, with the dollar creeping back losses it suffered. ISM Manufacturing PMI was expected to come in at 47.5, but the number came in lower at 46.3 as the US data continued to print lower. The rand tested R17.95 earlier as the dollar started to find some traction, but since the release of the ISM data, we have traded back to the R17.80 level. There is still some event risk later this week with payroll data in the US on Friday,

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00:01:05

US inflation continues to fall

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/03/31

US inflation continues to fall Consumer prices rose less than expected in February, the latest monthly update of the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation showed, the core PCE deflator. The annual rise in core PCE prices edged down to 4.6% from 4.7% in Jan, matching the lowest it has been since the end of 2021. Looking at the chart, CPI, PPI and PCE are trending down, although the pace lower is a bit slower than it was on the way up. This release can possibly prompt the Fed to stop

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00:01:00

Slightly risk-on

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/03/29

Slightly risk-on The dollar has been trading under pressure for the day, with most currencies posting gains. The markets are starting to price rate cuts in the US more aggressively. This can possibly cause the US treasury yield curve continues to remain deeply inverted, an early indication that a US recession is looming. The market expects the Fed to not hike rates again and to start cutting interest rates in the second half of 2023. If the current liquidity crunch in the banking sector

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00:01:16

Rand remains range-bound

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/03/28

Rand remains range-bound We previously mentioned that markets are calmer with stability in the financial system helping volatility to ease, but we have yet to see any sustained reprieve for the rand. Although the rand is 0.5% stronger for the day, we basically just regained ground lost yesterday. Markets are continuously focusing on US data and Fed speakers, but local issues have played their part in the rand’s performance over the past two months. Dollar still hovering softer against its peers The

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00:01:20

Markets are calmer

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/03/27

Markets are calmer Should we say the calm after the storm, with markets calmer today than it was for most of last week? The fact that no new banks came under pressure over the weekend has helped the market ally fears from last week. US Treasury yields rose amid reduced demand for the safety of government paper as tensions in the banking sector eased. This has caused safe-haven assets like Gold and the US dollar to have eased a little today. The US dollar is trading at 1.0780 against the Euro, and

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00:01:01

Markets treading water

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/03/24

Markets treading water Markets are fairly calm this morning with bets on a pause in rate hikes by the Fed offsetting some of the concerns over the stability of the financial system and a possible US recession. US Treasury yields are lower at the short end of the curve with the 2-year quoted at 3.79%. The Dollar closed firmer against the Euro last night but lost ground against the Pound and Yen. The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank raised rates by 25bps and 50bps respectively yesterday, in

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00:00:56

A sense of calmness after the storm

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/03/23

A sense of calmness after the storm Markets have reacted positively after what people describe as a dovish hike by the FOMC last night, and we have seen the Volatility Index drop nearly 7% on the day. Equity markets and EM’s are finding life easier since, and we saw the rand test below R18.10 earlier today. This level has proven difficult for the rand to sustain a break below at the past two attempts and seems to be the same this time around. Local concerns are still priced into the rand as a risk

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00:01:23

Rand rallies before FOMC

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/03/22

Rand rallies before FOMC Hours before the FOMC meeting, we have seen the US dollar trading near the 1.0800 level against the Euro. Whether this level will hold after the meeting is another matter. We expect the FOMC to hike interest rates by 25 basis points, citing the latest banking crisis in the US as one of the reasons why the FOMC will not go 50 basis points. The market will pay more attention to the forward guidance by the FOMC as the market will look to any news on a Fed pivot. Should the

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