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Markets Update with TreasuryONE

Markets Update with TreasuryONE

Risk management covers a range of responsibilities that must be managed well in order to secure and maintain the proper level of liquidity, control the organisations’ assets, bring exposures in line with risk appetite and ensure efficient processes in a dynamic environment. TreasuryONE’s highly skilled market risk team has navigated the risk areas of foreign exchange, interest rate, and commodities for the last 23 years on behalf of our clients and is regarded as experts in the design,

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00:01:24

Dollar index dips further

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/03/20

The dollar has treaded water during the day, and we see the euro and pound up 0.54% for the day, while the Yen is slightly up as well. The impact of this has seen the dollar index dip further, quoted at 103.37. The 2yr Treasury Yield is slightly up this afternoon at 3.92%, but price action has been more stable today following the buyout of Swiss Bank Credit Suisse. Gold has been as volatile over the past week, with the price topping $2,000 earlier today before sentiment improved and the metal

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00:01:24

Brent Crude falls further, while gold is up

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/03/17

We have seen markets trading sideways with a slight sense of risk-off sentiment today after global banks concerns have taken over this week. The bailout of banks in Switzerland and the US has dominated headlines, while the ECB stuck to their 50bps hike yesterday as inflation remains a concern in the eurozone. Markets have calmed down following the bailouts and now fully focus on next week’s FOMC meeting, where we will see if the downward trending inflation and financial market instability this week

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00:01:25

ECB hikes by 50 basis points

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/03/16

ECB hikes by 50 basis points The ECB kept its promise by hiking 50 basis points despite the current market turmoil surrounding Credit Suisse, and the ECB warned that some banks might come under pressure with increased interest rate hikes. The ECB stated that inflation would be higher for longer. Thus, they had no option other than hiking rates. We have seen the US dollar trading slightly stronger after the press conference indicating that the market believes the Fed can also hike rates next week at

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00:01:51

Market Mayhem

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/03/15

Market Mayhem Equities markets are under pressure, with markets very alarmed about the possibility of a default by Swiss Bank Credit Suisse. Looking at equity markets, we see all major USD indexes trading well down, and therefore it is safe to say EM’s will not perform well either. The rand has lost 1.4% and testing the R18.40 level at the moment. This is far from the worst-performing currency for the day, with the euro taking severe punishment and losing 1.6% as the possibility of a contagion

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00:01:46

CPI gives Fed options

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/03/14

US inflation came in bang on the expected 6% y-on-y for Feb. US core inflation is also on the number at 5.5%. This gives the Fed the option to do no hikes rates at its next meeting next week, given the state of the banking system in the US. We have seen that the Us dollar is trading above 1.0700, which suggests that the market has moved out of US dollars and into Gold which is another safe haven. The Rand has enjoyed the move out of the US dollar and is currently trading at R18.1100, with its sights

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00:01:28

SVB collapse shatters Treasury Yields

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/03/13

SVB collapse shatters Treasury Yields The main topic today has been the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, with Treasury Yields and Equity Markets both finding life difficult. The 2yr US Treasury Yield fell even further and dipped below 4% earlier today, while the 10yr yield is on 3.45%. This is important to understand because the 2yr yield has lost 100bps since Friday afternoon, with markets now heavily concerned about the contagion effect it will have on the banking sector. The market has started to

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00:01:31

Unemployment rate the cat in the bag?

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/03/10

Unemployment rate the cat in the bag? The dollar has been under pressure after the payroll data were released, with the unemployment rate likely the guilty party for it. Yesterday we saw Jobless claims increased during February, while the unemployment rate rose to 3.6% for the February print. This places the FOMC betting on a resilient labour market under debate, and the focus will firmly shift to the CPI print next week. Rand recovers, still down for the week After opening close to the R18.10

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00:01:06

Market taking a breather

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/03/09

Market taking a breather The market is caught between the testimony from Fed Chair Powell the previous two days and the US non-farm payroll numbers that will be released tomorrow. Unsurprisingly, most of the market drifted sideways today, with the Rand being case in point with the currency trading within a 10-cent range and currently finding itself at R18.60. We did see the US jobless claims coming in worse than expected (215k vs. 195k), which is a downturn from the last good data that we have seen

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00:01:40

Rand in a vulnerable space

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/03/08

The rand managed to close below the major technical level of R18.55 yesterday but lost ground during the day to test a new multiple-year high of R18.70 earlier today. Since then, we have seen some recovery on the local currency, whereby it drifted back below R18.60. The rand is treading water in a vulnerable area, with Friday’s Non-Farm payrolls and next week’s CPI numbers likely the next pivotable key for the dollar to push further. We have seen more of the same during the day, with a stronger

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00:01:23

GDP disappoints

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/03/07

GDP disappoints The intensifying load shedding we saw has severely impacted the growth numbers. The economy shrank by 1.3% q-on-q versus the 1.8% growth in Q3. Loadshedding continued and probably intensified in Q1 of this year, so the prospects for Q1 of 2023 are not looking rosy. If we have another negative quarter of growth, the South African economy will find itself in recession. The economy is limping along and is now back at GDP levels pre the Covid pandemic. Rand under pressure The rand is

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00:01:21

Big week ahead

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/03/06

Big week ahead In the US, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver testimony and take questions from lawmakers on Tuesday and Wednesday. He's expected to echo fellow central bankers in suggesting interest rates will go higher than policymakers anticipated just weeks ago. ECB's Lagarde is also due to speak on Wednesday. In Japan, the Bank of Japan's governor is set to make his final interest rate announcement, which will continue to be no change on Friday. We also have the US non-farm

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00:00:57

ISM Services better than expected

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/03/03

ISM Services better than expected US February ISM Services came out at 55.1 versus 54.5 expected. This means services are continuing to expand in the US, and things like dining out and paid vacations are continuing to grow, although it seems that consumer confidence is lower. After trading on the backfoot for the most of the day, the dollar is currently trading stronger after the ISM. Treasury yields in the short end are up again with the 2Y yields just shy of 5%, currently up at 4.92% after dipping

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00:01:53

Dollar trading firm

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/03/02

Dollar trading firm The dollar is trading with new wind in its sails as Treasury Yields continue to rise. The 2yr yield has edged up to 4.92%, while the 10yr yield is up at 4.07%, creating the most inverted yield curve since the early 1980s. The market is seemingly pricing in that inflation is here to stay and that the Fed will need to keep Rates higher for longer, with the possibility of a 50bps hike during the March meeting rising. Range bound Rand Locally we have been mostly wedged in the R18.12

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00:01:11

Rand recovers some lost ground

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/03/01

Rand recovers some lost ground The rand recovered almost 40c from the high of R18.51 yesterday at a stage today, only to slip back in late afternoon trade. Some good data out of China added the rand’s recovery as there was some position squaring after the valuation of the rand was stretched, but ISM Manufacturing data came out and it showed that prices paid ticked up. This is a concern for the inflation narrative out of the US. The rand was the worst performing currency out of the basket that gets

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00:01:14

Rand struggles

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/02/28

Rand struggles The Rand continues to struggle despite the weaker US dollar. The US dollar has moved out to the 1.0630 level against the Euro, with most EM currencies catching the tailwinds of this move except the Rand. The Rand is still stuck in the R18.35-50 range, with local issues anchoring the Rand with little strength. We have seen the Rand touching the R18.50 level, but like it has done a couple of times, it has bounced back off the level, and we are currently trading at R18.40. We are

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00:01:16

Durable goods

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/02/27

Durable goods Durable goods sank 4.5% in January because of a pullback in volatile passenger-plane bookings. Yet business investment rose at the fastest pace in five months in another sign of strength for the economy early in the new year. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 3.6% drop in orders for durable goods. These are products like cars, planes, and computers meant to last at least three years. The dollar is back The question certainly is how long will the current

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00:01:41

Good US data weighs on Rand

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/02/24

While most of the headlines will be hogged by the fact that South Africa has been greylisted, the Rand reacted more to the higher-than-expected PCE data out of the US (4.7% vs 4.2% exp). The PCE is the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, and with inflation looking like it is sticky, it has sent some fears that the Fed needs to be more aggressive and that more rate hikes than previously thought will be needed. This has caused the US dollar to break below the 1.0600 level against the Euro and is

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00:01:33

Rand trading firmer

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/02/22

Rand trading firmer Headlines that Stage 7 load-shedding would be implemented spooked the market earlier this morning, and we saw the rand sell-off to R18.38. However, the market reacted positively on the release of the budget speech’s embargo, as we saw the rand firm to R18.13 before settling below R18.20. A concern from the budget speech would be that Eskom is receiving a bailout of R254 billion, which would effectively see Debt to GDP peak at 73.6% in 2026, slightly higher than what was expected

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00:01:13

Rand still looking vulnerable

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/02/21

Rand still looking vulnerable As we head into the calm before the storm, the Rand looks a little vulnerable around the R18.20 mark. We have seen the US dollar on the front foot today, as it tested 1.0650 against the Euro, which was the primary cause for the Rand to weaken. One also has to remember that the US was out of the market yesterday, and the early move in the US dollar could be the repositioning of market players. However, the overall theme is that the US dollar is on the front foot, and the

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00:01:19

Rand slightly disconnected from other EMs

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/02/20

Rand slightly disconnected from other EMs The rand softened during most of the day, trading in a 15cent range, while other EM’s grinded out small gains. The rand’s performance over the past few weeks has not been the best, and we could expect the rand to remain under pressure with load-shedding pushed back to stage 6 and the upcoming budget speech on Wednesday. We expect little to change overnight, with the US market being closed, and we could see our local market trade slightly more risk-off

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