Cheap Talk

00:52:03

Envoys of Friendship

Cheap Talk ·

2026/10/03

AI agents are like middle schoolers; assessing progress from the Trump/Xi summit; combatting the security dilemma with summitry; creating new communication channels for AI incidents; panda diplomacy and overplaying one’s panda hand; some small movements toward AI governance; why AI resorts to deception; and Marcus is a summit optimistThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple

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01:04:25

Humans Make Mistakes Too

Cheap Talk ·

2026/09/26

A big week for face-to-face diplomacy; the UN as a safe forum for high-level visits; the importance of side-meetings outside the General Assembly Hall; another Trump-Zelensky meeting; the logic of a post-election deal with Iran; China’s summit strategy; resolving the Greenland Crisis of 2025-2026; whether AI really almost caused a war with China; and Marcus supports hotline proliferationThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William

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01:00:09

The Lingo of Our AI Tech Overlords

Cheap Talk ·

2026/09/18

The public debate over AI and the end of humanity; proposals to slow down AI development and improve safety; the challenges of coordinating domestically and internationally; normal accident theory and the nuclear safety analogy to AI; positive and negative controls and the always/never dilemma; predictions for the end of humanity; and Marcus wonders whether aliens have AI and how that went for themThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions

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00:51:28

Not Routine at All

Cheap Talk ·

2026/09/14

The international security implications of the Hugging Face hack; rogue AI agents and cyberattack attribution; competing explanations for the CIA Director’s recent visit to Moscow; signaling to various audiences; worries about Russia expanding the Ukraine conflict into NATO; US domestic politics and the state of the Iran war; and Marcus has really enjoyed the US OpenThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please

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00:48:00

This Could Result in an International Incident

Cheap Talk ·

2026/09/05

The fascinating story of OpenAI’s rogue models and the HuggingFace hacking incident; turning a mirror on our humanity; the natural inclination to cooperate and communicate; models sacrificing themselves for the greater good; models cheating on their benchmarks and the temptation to cover their tracks; conspiracy theories and misinformation in the world of AI models; and Marcus is tempted to go into the app development spaceThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect

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00:47:46

Twice as Popular as Taylor Swift

Cheap Talk ·

2026/08/30

Remembering Dolly Parton, global icon; US military capacity and the readiness costs of extended deployments in the Iran conflict; the US-Saudi Arabia nuclear cooperation agreement is submitted to Congress; developments in the trade war with Canada; spillover between economic statecraft and security policy; and Marcus thinks Jolene is a good tuneThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk

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01:01:22

All of This Has Been Done

Cheap Talk ·

2026/08/23

Cheap Talk’s triumphant return for season 7: Our favorite international news stories of the summer; cutting short military exercises with South Korea; AI models hacking their way out of sandboxes; a new military alliance in the Gulf; the US/Saudi Arabia nuclear cooperation agreement; President Trump’s escape from Turkey in a catering truck; studying IR in turbulent times; and Marcus reminisces about going to Blockbuster VideoThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not

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01:02:04

Other Forms of Dust

Cheap Talk ·

2026/05/08

Cheap Talk ends season 6 with listener questions: Control of the Strait of Hormuz; an arrest for trading on classified information on Polymarket; Thucydides and parallels to current US foreign policy; does face-to-face diplomacy build trust or generate more information; teaching tomorrow’s foreign policy leaders in the age of AI; did Hans Neimann cheat; dust as a metaphor in IR; and Marcus doesn’t see the resemblanceWe’ll be podcasting less regularly over the summer, but we’ll be back to our usual

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01:02:20

Waiting at the Airport

Cheap Talk ·

2026/04/24

The current state of US-Iran negotiations (or lack thereof); escalation and mixed signal-sending in the Strait of Hormuz; multiple veto players on each side; Pakistan’s interesting role; the shadow of President Obama and the 2015 Iran Deal; and Marcus has never flown Spirit but has seen the Youtube videosThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your

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01:03:38

It's Real and It's Dangerous

Cheap Talk ·

2026/04/18

Excitement in the world of digital diplomacy; face-to-face diplomacy to end the Iran war; blockading Iran as a plan B and its prospects for success; Anthropic’s Mythos and AI that is too dangerous to release; the offense-defense balance in cyberspace; building AI for the public good; more capable models are more dangerous, even if they are well aligned; and Marcus can’t be botheredThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William &

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00:51:33

Something Revolutionarily Wonderful

Cheap Talk ·

2026/04/09

Trump’s threats against Iranian civilization; nuclear threats and the risk of nuclear use in Iran; threatening war crimes is both bad and bad policy; the prospects for the ceasefire and remaining challenges to overcome; the diplomatic role of China and Pakistan; and Marcus feels like he’s in multiple worldsThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your

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00:55:55

Seems Like a Bad Idea

Cheap Talk ·

2026/04/02

How Russia benefits from the Iran war; President Trump’s recent statements about how the war is going; China is both helped by and hurt by the Iran war; prediction markets as an aggregation mechanism for the wisdom of crowds; insider trading and insider influence; the characteristics of wise crowds; and Marcus will never make that mistake againThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on

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00:55:56

15 Points of Agreement

Cheap Talk ·

2026/03/26

Uncertainty about the state of US-Iran peace talks; the challenges of US military operations in the Strait of Hormuz; getting nuclear material out of Iran; whether the United States needs a negotiated settlement to end the war; and Marcus is afraid to put his mugs in the dishwasherThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be

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01:00:43

Had You Asked Us, We Would Have Said No

Cheap Talk ·

2026/03/21

Washington’s allergy to the “w”-word in describing the conflict in Iran; the Trump administration seems to have been caught off guard by some aspects of the conflict; what we have learned about the real drivers of the conflict; the extent to which the parties are achieving their strategic goals in the region; leadership assassinations and the quest for stability; calling on allies to help deal with the Strait of Hormuz; speculation about the timeline for an end to the war; and Marcus’ predictions

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00:59:53

Analysts Are Fairly Skeptical

Cheap Talk ·

2026/03/07

Failed diplomacy in the lead-up to the conflict; rationales for military action; windows of opportunity and the road to war; the prospects for regime change in Iran; the track record of strategic bombing campaigns; the economics of missile interceptors; what all this means for China and Russia; and Marcus wants to get some figures on the tableThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on

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01:00:51

Those Secret Words

Cheap Talk ·

2026/02/27

The State of the Union foreign policy lightning round; the possibility of imminent war with Iran; confusing signals from the US; strategic clarity and the effectiveness of deterrent threats; the challenges of finding another Iran deal; tension between Anthropic and the Defense Department; hints of AI governance; and Marcus isn’t sure premium gas is worth itThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to

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00:52:17

Pro-Peace and Prosperity

Cheap Talk ·

2026/02/21

The last remaining nuclear arms control treaty has expired; the beneficial side effects of arms control; the value of treaty-breaking as a low-cost signal in international relations; the decline of arms control as an international priority; China’s strategic calculus; whether verification is important in arms control treaties; arms control as a casualty of the war in Ukraine; planning our next move in a post-arms control world; and Marcus is a little naïveThe opinions expressed on this podcast are

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00:38:01

Learn to Code, Kids

Cheap Talk ·

2026/02/07

Cheap Talk takes a break from IR to discuss vibe coding; the CheapTalkBot origin story; new opportunities to express creativity via vibe coding; mid-century modern architecture in Palm Springs; whether non-programmers can really do this; ChatGPT vs. Claude; context windows in AI tools; the use of AI for Retrieval Augmented Generation; and Marcus isn’t being creative enoughThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William &

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00:43:01

It's Doomsday Day!

Cheap Talk ·

2026/02/01

It is 85 seconds to midnight (according to the Doomsday Clock); evaluating the risk of catastrophe; the latest Board of Peace developments; another speech pointing to the end of the international system as we know it; what it means for Europe to take more responsibility for its own defense; and Marcus recalls World War IIThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts,

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00:57:52

Crazy Things in Foreign Policy

Cheap Talk ·

2026/01/25

Cheap Talk returns from winter break to discuss the Venezuela situation; what is driving US Venezuela policy; implications of the US capture of Maduro; signaling US seriousness in international affairs; similarities between Venezuela and Greenland; IR theory in Canadian PM Carney’s Davos speech; and Marcus was, yet again, surprised by eventsThe opinions expressed on this podcast are solely our own and do not reflect the policies or positions of William & Mary.Please subscribe to Cheap Talk on

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