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PODCAST

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast is a modern geopolitics podcast that wades deep into the machinery of our global systems. We explore not just what happened this week, but why it happened, and what it means for markets, money, and the people living through it. Geopolitics is the intersection of geography and politics. Each episode, geopolitical analyst Jacob Shapiro sits down with economists, strategists, scientists, journalists, and people on the ground to follow one story to its roots: the US-China

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All Episodes

57:54

#241 - U.S. Election 2024 Preview

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2024/11/01

The U.S. election next week. Even those of us that hate following this have no choice but to bite the bullet – so this week, Rob and Jacob make predictions, offer scenarios, and most importantly, try to impart some advice about how to think about what is going to happen in the next 4 years no matter who resides in the White House. --Timestamps:00:00 - Introduction 02:46 - Election Scenarios and Market Implications04:43 - Economic Indicators and Predictions10:06 - Cultural and Political Dynamics15:40

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43:17

#240 - The Illusion of Moral Decline

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2024/10/22

Jacob welcomes Adam Mastroianni onto the show to discuss his 2023 article in Nature about how it is human nature to assume that the world is always getting worse. This is that rare bit of content that is entirely optimistic – it invites you to consider that our perception of the world is grounded not in what is actually happening in the world but in how we are programmed to think about it. --Timestamps:00:01 - Introduction to Adam Mastriani00:15 - The Illusion of Moral Decline00:31 - Human

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59:01

#239 - Introducing Club CI

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2024/10/18

Jacob and Rob take a break from geopolitics and markets to talk about changes at Team CI – why they are moving their asset management activities to The Bespoke Group, how Cognitive Investments is changing… and how you can be a part of it... They unveil the launch of Club CI, a new community designed for like-minded individuals seeking to deepen their understanding of geopolitics, technology, and personal growth. This episode dives into the structural changes within Cognitive Investments,

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01:01:53

#238 - The Future of the Middle East: Reflections on...

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2024/10/11

Jacob and Rob consider how the world has changed (or hasn’t) since the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct 7, 2023. From there, they offer thoughts on innovation in seemingly random countries like Iraq and Chile, before turning to more traditional topics like the U.S. economy. They close with a few bright spots…and a dumpster fire in Pakistan.--Timestamps:00:01 - Intro00:55 - Reflections on October 7, 202303:49 - The Impact of Global Events on Trade09:00 - The Situation in Iraq and Food

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56:11

#237 - Fires, Strikes and Brazilian Success

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2024/10/04

Rob and Jacob take a step back from a crazy week to talk about some of the other stories that have been outshone by the explodey events of the week: port strikes in the U.S., the pitfalls of protectionism, Brazilian success, insurance markets, and more.The podcast delves into the significant labor unrest currently affecting ports on the Gulf and East Coast of the United States, marking the first major strike since 1977. Jacob Shapiro and Rob Larity explore the implications of this strike,

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49:45

#236 - Iran’s Strategic Loneliness

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2024/10/02

Jacob welcomes Hamidreza Azizi, Visiting Fellow at German Institute for International and Security Affairs, onto the podcast for a special episode on the escalation of fighting between Iran and Israel. This podcast episode delves into the complex and precarious situation faced by Iran amidst escalating regional tensions and internal political strife. Hamidreza shares his insights on Iran's strategic options, which he characterizes as increasingly grim and desperate. The discussion highlights Iran's

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01:48:00

#235 - Trump v Harris Victory Scenarios w/ Cousin Marko

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2024/10/01

Jacob and Marko talk for a Joe-Rogan-amount of time – in this two-hour episode, they cover the Iranian threat to bomb Israel and what it does (and doesn’t) mean for the Middle East, whether China’s stimulus is real, and what’s next for the Russia-Ukraine war. They also explore Trump v Harris victory scenarios…and close out with the best NBA analysis money can buy.--Timestamps:00:01 - Introductory Remarks00:57 - Middle East Tensions: Iran and Israel01:27 - Reassessing Israel's Strategic Goals02:29 -

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01:06:10

#234 - Alberto Fujimori, 1938-2024

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2024/09/30

Elo returns to the podcast to give his thoughts about Alberto Fujimori, Peru’s former dictator President. He was Bukele before there was Bukele, Milei before there was Milei, even Chavez before there was Chavez. His rise and fall tells us so much about the history of Latin American geopolitics – and points to a melancholic not-so-shining path forward.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:14) - Who was Fujimori(09:37) – Japan and Peru(14:12) – The Rise of Fujimori(28:33) – Vladimiro Montesinos(35:45) –

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59:35

#233 - Bladerunner 2024 and China Stimulus

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2024/09/27

Jacob and Rob dive into the microgeopolitics of Los Angeles before focusing on the big macro news of the week: Chinese economic stimulus. They give the bull and bear case for China’s moves to stimulate the economy. Also, the geopolitics of noodles.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:00) - Microgeopolitics of LA28:00 – Ports, France, and Brazil30:00 – China--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter:

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01:11:10

#232 - Why Simplify When You Can Complicate?

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2024/09/23

Jacob welcomes PauloMacro onto the podcast to discuss his macro view, oil, grains, emerging markets… and why the time might have finally come for Brazil.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:22) - Paulo’s view(13:05) – US elections(19:32) – Oil(33:08)– China(41:20) – Grains(51:10) – Brazil--Referenced in the Show:Link to Paulo’s Substack: https://substack.com/@paulomacro--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter:

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01:02:39

#231 - Paging Hezbollah

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2024/09/20

Jacob and Rob discuss the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates, the BIOSECURE Act, Israel’s new front against Hezbollah, and Mexico’s judicial reforms. The overall theme of the podcast, despite a general overtone of paranoid dystopianism from the week’s events, is the slow and steady breaking of rules and norms in so many aspects of global politics and trade.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:05-10:00) – Fed(09:10) – BIOSECURE Act(22:23) – Hezbollah and Israel(42:51) – Mexico’s judicial reforms--Jacob

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50:30

#230 - Microgeopolitics of Fargo and Brazil v. X

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2024/09/07

Jacob and Rob are back from vacation! They share some microgeopolitical takes from their respective journeys and talk about the faceoff between Elon Musk and Brazil.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(00:40) – Fargo(19:50) – Briancon(30:00) – Brazil vs X--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShapCI Site: cognitive.investmentsSubscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep--Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides

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53:25

#229 - Understanding WHO's Mpox Declaration

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2024/09/04

Jacob welcomes Alexandra Finch on the podcast to talk about the mpox outbreak in the context of the international legal frameworks that apply including WHO’s emergency declaration, how they are being applied, and how they are/should be reformed.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:30) - Mpox emergency declaration(06:30) - Needs v. realities(12:56) - How does the WHO actually work? Who pays for the vaccines?(22:30) – International Health Regulations and Global Pandemic Treaty(33:55) – Pitfalls of

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34:38

#228 - The Arabian Gulf's Expanding Conflict + Modi's...

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2024/08/28

John Fowler and Jacob Shapiro dive into the current geopolitical landscape, beginning with a lively discussion about the Democratic National Convention and Kamala Harris's rising poll numbers. They touch on the ongoing conflict in the Arabian Gulf, examining the Red Sea Tanker attack and its implications for global shipping. They also speculate on the growing tensions between Israel and Hamas amidst rumors of a call between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. Narendra Modi's significant visit to

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45:10

#227 - The Tactical Objectives of Ukraine's Offensive...

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2024/08/23

Rob is on vacation, so Jacob welcomes Sim Tack to join him in his weekly Friday slot to discuss Ukraine’s invasion of Russia. The two address the logistical challenges facing Ukraine, such as air support and ammunition shortages, and analyzes the strategic and tactical objectives of the Ukrainian offensive. They explore various potential motivations behind the invasion, including creating negotiation leverage and affecting Russian forces' deployment. The conversation also delves into broader

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51:03

#226 - Monkeypox and AI

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2024/08/16

Jacob and Rob talk about the expanding monkeypox global health emergency. From there they turn to artificial intelligence to talk about whether comparisons to previous bubbles in rail and telecoms are good models for thinking about it going forward.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro (01:39) – Nordstream sabotage(04:16) – Monkeypox(11:00) – Government responses(20:20) – Investment implications(26:43) – Artificial Intelligence--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter:

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58:32

#225 - Great Power Network Competition and Bitcoin...

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2024/08/12

Matthew Pines rejoins the podcast to talk about the virtue of Bitcoin as a part of U.S. national security policy. Come for the philosophical discussion on Bitcoin and the role of the U.S. dollar – stay for Matt’s updates on aliens at the end.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro (03:00) - Bitcoin(12:55) – Philosophical considerations(27:05) – Rails / assets(40:37) – China’s ability to exploit vulnerabilities(50:30) – Aliens--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter:

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55:30

#224 - Sober Liquidity

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2024/08/09

Rob dissects the market volatility of the week with characteristic apolmb. From there, Rob and Jacob tackle the overthrow of Bangladesh’s government and a discovery in Japan that may change the way the semiconductor industry works. Also, Rob’s take on the Olympics.--Timestamps:(00:00) -Intro(00:41) -Market Madness: A Week of Financial Turbulence(02:46) -Understanding Market Volatility(08:37) -Investment Strategies in Volatile Markets(19:18) -Bangladesh Political Crisis(28:26) -Bangladesh's Garment

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58:50

#223 - Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren...

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2024/08/02

Jacob and Rob talk briefly about emerging markets and a return to orthodox economic policies in places like Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Egypt. After a brief digression into the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates, they spend the rest of the podcast discussing a study that looked at the impact of direct cash transfers on labor supply and quality – and what it means that the key takeaway was that people want to have fun. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:47) - CI Club Concept(05:45) - Global

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01:00:00

#222 - Maduro and Venezuela

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2024/08/01

Jacob welcomes Elohim Monard back to the podcast for an emergency conversation about the deteriorating situation in Venezuela. While they both bring idealism to the conversation, it is hard to conclude that the current situation will lead to change – and that instead it will empower rogue elements, criminal enterprises, and authoritarian regimes around the world.--Timestamps:Coming Soon (Jacob the Producer is sick rn)--Referenced in the Show:--Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.comJacob Twitter:

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