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PODCAST

Multipolarity

Charting The Rise Of A Multipolar World Order Philip Pilkington is an unorthodox macroeconomist. Andrew Collingwood is an equally skeptical journalist. Lately, both have realised that - post-Ukraine, post-Afghanistan withdrawal - the old, unipolar, US-led world order is in its death throes. In its wake, something new is being born. But what shape will that take? That will depend on a combustible combination of economics and geopolitics; trade and military muscle. Each week, our duo take

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All Episodes

48:20

India Bans Rice Exports?, The UK Gilts Crisis, Home...

Multipolarity ·

2023/07/27

Ukraine has lost its grain deal. Russian fertiliser is struggling to get to market. Now India wants to ban exports of non-Basmati rice. The ratchet on food prices is by no means over. Now, the ratchet on politics really begins. Where are the next big food riots going to come from?Call in the plumbers: there’s a big blockage in the UK gilt markets. Why is liquidity suddenly drying up in a two trillion Pound pool? And what happens next – now that the British government might be forced to double its

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01:18:15

Special Edition: De-Dollarisation and the New...

Multipolarity ·

2023/07/20

De-dollarisation. We've been warning about it since the start of the show. But it won't happen overnight. To arrive at a place where the dollar is just one of many global currencies is the work of years, maybe decades. In this Special Edition, our duo are taking the long view. We're going right back to Bretton Woods, to Nixon & The Gold Window, to the Emerging Markets Crisis of 97 and 98, and to the long sag of post-2008, to trace the internal logic of the dollar system. Then, we're peering into

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01:15:44

Special Edition. Malcom Kyeyune: The Twilight of the...

Multipolarity ·

2023/07/14

Malcom Kyeyune (@Tinkzorg on Twitter) is one of the smartest, most far-seeing commentators out there. Someone the lads have really chimed with. Earlier in this bonanza week, we paired him with Elbridge Colby, for a Twitter Spaces debating whether America could ever take a Realist turn. Now, he's back for a solo show. The lads go deep into Chairman Kyeyune Thought: from the worthlessness of much US military hardware, to the unrecognised shrinkage of the US economy on a PPP basis, to the cosplaying

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56:23

Braving The Elements, Western Pacific Treaty...

Multipolarity ·

2023/07/13

Can you still get your Germanium on AliExpress? After the US restricted Chinese access to high-end chips, China is looking to ban this vital chip ingredient.So where do we go from here? Can America ban the stuff that makes Germanium? Or is this the Chinese going one step up in the chip wars?For months, elements within NATO have been piling on the pressure to open a liaison office in Japan.The French think that’s a terrible idea. This week, they finally exercised their veto. So as the world becomes

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01:37:30

Twitter Spaces: The Realism Debates: Malcom Kyeyune...

Multipolarity ·

2023/07/12

This week, we hosted a special Twitter Spaces debate, now re-published as a podcast. The topic was: "Is Realism realistic for America, or will liberal idealists and neocons always control US foreign policy?" Can America's animal spirits shift strategy? We were joined by two of the world's top thinkers on the question, each with a distinct angle. @ElbridgeColby is the architect of the 2018 US National Defence Strategy, is the principal of the Marathon Initiative, which develops strategies to prepare

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48:24

Let Them Eat Lidl, China’s Trade Superweapon,...

Multipolarity ·

2023/07/06

As France mops up the ashes of the burnt-out banlieues, data shows national food spending is down thirty per cent year on year. It’s not quite Les Miserables, but right across Europe, it seems that hangry might turn out to be the dominant political mode of 2023.China is building a trade superweapon. They’ve just created a brand new foreign relations department that will have the scope to take charge of tariffs and imports. It feels like we’ve arrived at the mutually assured destruction phase of a

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53:38

Back To The Falklands, Monetarism’s Meltdown, A New...

Multipolarity ·

2023/06/29

The Chinese are backing the Argentinian claims to the Falklands, with hot anti-colonialist rhetoric. With America still neutral, is Britain heading towards a Suez two-point oh moment? And perhaps more importantly: have we reached a sinister new milestone in the multipolar era – where old colonial grievances become brand new proxy wars?Back in Britain, the Bank of England are looking to re-bottle the inflation genie with another big rate hike. Are they being too aggressive? When it comes to

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47:02

Ranking Nanjing, Bundeswehr Backdown, Iran's Nuclear...

Multipolarity ·

2023/06/21

This week leads on an extraordinary story. A new metric, from the world-leading science journal Nature has put Chinese universities above some of the most famous names in higher ed. MIT, Caltech, Cambridge and Imperial are all ranking lower than the likes of Nanjing and Tsinghua. Andrew Collingwood is interested in how far behind the times our cultural imagination is with regards to China. While Philip Pilkington senses that the gains to being world-best will soon start to turn exponential. Both are

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50:24

The Commercial Property Bust, Eurovision War Contest,...

Multipolarity ·

2023/06/15

This week, the lads are down the shopping mall... Commercial property is looking increasingly un-commercial. As businesses bail out of downtown post-Covid, it’s threatening to create a downward spiral that drags the banks with it. But will the banks then drag entire cities down with them?America has spent decades taking out Europe’s trash. But if there were a war in Taiwan, a new survey suggests there’s almost no European appetite to back them up. So why don’t young Belgians want to die to prevent

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49:30

America’s Capitalist Missionaries, Let a Thousand...

Multipolarity ·

2023/06/08

Tim Cook. Elon Musk. Warren Buffet. Jeff Bezos. Jamie Dimon.Lately, a who’s who of American business power has been sent over to meet their Chinese counterparts. With embassy-level diplomacy increasingly in the deep freeze, are they using their corporate rockstars to do what the State Department can’t?Meanwhile, inside China, as the post-Covid recovery slows, we may be about to see the economy of Keynes’ dreams swing into action, as the Chinese get busy building. Will it be a clunking fist, or a

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01:47:29

Twitter Spaces: Britain's Industrial Policy - with...

Multipolarity ·

2023/06/06

What is Britain's industrial policy? What should it be? In this Anglo-centric Twitter Spaces debate, we're joined by 'rising star of the Tory right', Miriam Cates MP. Talking alongside her is SDP leader William Clouston, and Michael Taylor, who runs Coldwater Economics, and publishes an excellent Substack called The Long March. After several off-beat editions, we'll be back to the normal format on Thursday.

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02:29:26

Turkey Elects; Micron Matters, Twitter Spaces

Multipolarity ·

2023/05/29

This episode is brought to you by Twitter Spaces. With an elephantine 2.5 hour running time, we've gone gonzo, and turned one of our regular Twitter Spaces into a hybrid episode of Multipolarity, recorded live. In addition to all the usual Pilkington-Collingwood goodness, we were joined by a range of listener-guests, including the Ireland commentator Peter Ryan, and the Swedish gadfly Malcom Kyeyune (@Tinkzorg).

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01:18:44

Special Edition: Q&A - The Problem With Peter Zeihan...

Multipolarity ·

2023/05/25

Peter Zeihan is a big noise these days. He put in a stellar appearance on Joe Rogan. He's got a new book out: The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization. Zeihan is making big-picture geopolitics cool, creating a mass audience for the kinds of things we do at Multipolarity.But the lads also have some issues with PZ. His takes can seem awfully deterministic. And he's obsessed with demography, in a way that seems to miss more subtle factors at play. In this

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57:13

Piling On The Pounds, California Screaming, Marco...

Multipolarity ·

2023/05/18

In the week after the Bank of England once again raised rates, our geopolitics lads are entertaining the theory that this is about more than just crushing inflation. Britain is being forced to shadow the Fed, as 'carry' becomes ever-more important in an unsettled global forex market. Andrew Collingwood sees Zungzwang in Britain's future: the unpleasant consequences of stagnation and debt overhang are all coming home to roost. In the UK today, when it rains it pours. Meanwhile, California's budget

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01:03:21

Twenty Years of Monetary Failure, The Deindustrial...

Multipolarity ·

2023/05/11

Interest rates policy has bedevilled the West ever since Alan Greenspan first put the Fed on the floor in the wake of 9/11. With rates finally returning to realistic levels, we're seeing the impact of what you might call a two decade bubble: banks being squeezed to breaking point. Philip Pilkington is angry at what he sees as central banks using their rates policy as a thermostat 'to turn consumer demand up or down'. Meanwhile, Germany has just recorded a ten per cent dip in industrial output - the

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48:33

Special Edition with Harvard's Neo-Realist Stephen...

Multipolarity ·

2023/05/04

This week, our lads find themselves in the presence of Professor Stephen Walt. A professor of politics at the Harvard Kennedy School, Walt is the arch neo-realist, often bracketed alongside John Mearsheimer. Walt made his name opposing the Iraq War. He has long taken a cautious approach to US and Western foreign policy. He recently wrote that he sees a role for a Sino-American peace plan in Ukraine. Historically, Walt has advocated for looser relations with Iran; he was sympathetic to maintaining

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47:51

Quit All That Yellen, The Chips Fall Where They May,...

Multipolarity ·

2023/04/27

This week, ordinary geopolitics lads Andrew Collingwood and Philip Pilkington are back on the case of Janet Yellen. A week ago, she made incoherent comments about American foreign policy. Now, she's giving a big speech about China, and the results are only marginally better. Is Yellen being given contradictory objectives by her boss? Or is it simply the case that, with US hegemony haemorrhaging away, all the options are now bad? As China retaliates over the US chip ban, the global microprocessor

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51:00

Avant Lagarde, The IRA Blows Up, Xi Gets A Brazilian

Multipolarity ·

2023/04/20

This week, the lads have been heartened and dismayed by public statements from the two most eminent female economists of our time. Christine Lagarde and Janet Yellen. But while Yellen fell back onto tired old State Department talking points, Lagarde gave a pitch-perfect introduction to the multipolar age. Does the global elite finally get it? And if so, how will they trim their sheets from here on out? While he was dealing with the Irish Republican Army on his foreign trip last week, Joseph Biden

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55:35

"The Leak", Multipolar Macron, Rare Earth Getting Rarer

Multipolarity ·

2023/04/13

This week, the lads are trying not to speculate on the exact nature of the Pentagon 'leak' that came out over the Easter weekend. Is it disinfo or just someone with an axe to grind? It's unclear, which is why we're casting out to what may happen beyond the summer - what if catastrophic collapse does indeed come to Ukraine's teetering defences? Who wins what, and how do we keep the fragile world order together? Before he'd touched down in Paris from his China trip, Emmanuel Macron was back on

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53:53

CPTPP: Trade Deal or No Deal, Macron's Beijing...

Multipolarity ·

2023/04/06

After years of carping from the Remain establishment, Britain has finally come to its senses and joined a big trading bloc. But no - not that one. Will life in Asia’s CPTPP allow the UK to export their famous services economy? And what will Brits do with all the cheap leggings they get in return?As China leans ever-further into an eventual Ukrainian peace, France is looking to broker the brokering. At least, that seems to be the key motive of President Macron’s trip to Beijing.The boys wonder

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