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PODCAST

Van Hesser"s 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast

Each week, KBRA"s Chief Strategist, Van Hesser will address three things that caught his attention in credit markets that are relevant to credit investors.

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All Episodes

12:02

3 Things in Credit: April 14, 2022

Van Hesser"s 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast ·

2022/04/14

In this week's episode: 1. Security. A new world order demands it, and it touches several sectors in credit markets. 2. Sinking surveys. Watch what they do, not what they say is being tested. 3. Corporate pricing power. Watch out for consumers voting with their feet.

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10:26

3 Things in Credit: April 8, 2022

Van Hesser"s 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast ·

2022/04/08

In this week's episode: 1. Recession risk. It’s rising. We lay out a timetable. 2. Homebuilder blues. How is this possible amid a chronic house shortage? 3. Jamie Dimon’s letter. There’s always a lot to unpack.

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10:17

3 Things in Credit: April 1, 2022

Van Hesser"s 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast ·

2022/04/01

In this week's episode: 1. Earnings are normalizing. That means weakening. We’ll explore what that means for credit. 2. Moving to late cycle. So why are spreads tightening? 3. Yield curve inversion. Does it really matter?

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9:47

3 Things in Credit: March 18, 2022

Van Hesser"s 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast ·

2022/03/18

In this week's episode: 1. Extreme volatility. We cannot rule out contagion just yet. 2. New issue supply. Against a rash of unfavorable forces impacting corporate credit performance in 2022, this could be a bright spot. 3. Fed confusion. We’re not sure the messaging squares up with what we’re seeing.

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10:07

3 Things in Credit: March 11, 2022

Van Hesser"s 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast ·

2022/03/11

In this week's episode, KBRA Chief Strategist Van Hesser discusses: 1. Small business. This all-important economic engine is sputtering. We’ll explore. 2. Earnings durability. Estimates remain at a cyclical peak. Does that make sense? 3. Places to hide. Some sectors are built better for this kind of environment. We’ll name names.

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10:59

3 Things in Credit: March 4, 2022

Van Hesser"s 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast ·

2022/03/04

In this week's episode, KBRA Chief Strategist Van Hesser discusses: 1. Geopolitical shocks and credit. At what point do geopolitical events impact markets? 2. China. Can it play a positive role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict? 3. Russia facing another possible default. What’s the risk of contagion?

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9:37

3 Things in Credit: February 25, 2022

Van Hesser"s 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast ·

2022/02/25

In this week's episode, KBRA Chief Strategist Van Hesser discusses: 1. Russia. While Russia and Ukraine represent less than 2% of the global economy, Russia’s invasion will play a key role in an emerging new world order. 2. Normalization and the risks to credit. We’ve written an extensive piece about what that means. We’ll give you the highlights. 3. Falling cyclicals. That doesn’t square up with macro views of economic growth prospects. We’ll explore.

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9:34

3 Things in Credit: February 18, 2022

Van Hesser"s 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast ·

2022/02/18

In this week's episode, KBRA Chief Strategist Van Hesser discusses: 1. Equity volatility. It does bleed into credit spreads. Keep an eye on it. 2. A bank examiner’s view of credit risk. It doesn’t quite square up with what we hear from the banks. 3. Supply chains. Here’s an easy way to mark their progress in opening up.

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10:35

3 Things in Credit: February 11, 2022

Van Hesser"s 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast ·

2022/02/11

In this week's episode, KBRA Chief Strategist Van Hesser discusses: 1. Inflation fears. It’s become a national obsession. Our thoughts on what it means for credit markets. 2. Consumer debt jumps higher. A sign of confidence or stress? We’ll explore. 3. Recession risk. One respected reading suggests there is a 50% likelihood for a recession within the next 12 months. We’ll clue you in.

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9:39

3 Things in Credit: February 4, 2022

Van Hesser"s 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast ·

2022/02/04

In this week's episode, KBRA Chief Strategist Van Hesser discusses: 1. Slowing growth. Q4’s extraordinary GDP print feels like ancient history. Best to prepare for what’s ahead. 2. The ISM manufacturing index. This indicator has proven to be a useful guide to where credit spreads are headed. 3. Larry Fink’s annual letter to CEOs. Here’s what his 2022 message means for creditors.

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10:54

3 Things in Credit: January 28, 2022

Van Hesser"s 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast ·

2022/01/28

In this week's episode, KBRA Chief Strategist Van Hesser discusses: Jerome Powell’s even more hawkish pivot. A more aggressive tightening stance introduces additional risk into our outlook. Stocks versus bonds. Why has credit held in relatively well compared to equities’ powerful sell-off? We’ll explore. The all-important U.S. consumer. We’ll canvas three big consumer lenders’ Q4 results for insights into just how durable the consumer is.

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10:51

3 Things in Credit: January 21, 2022

Van Hesser"s 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast ·

2022/01/21

In this week's episode, KBRA Chief Strategist Van Hesser discusses: Big bank earnings. All of the attention was directed at expense growth, which ignores a remarkable development that is far more important to creditors. Recession risk. It’s back on our radar, and history tells us it needs to be on yours. The energy transition. Spiking oil prices are one sign that this is not likely to be a smooth one.

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9:13

3 Things in Credit: January 14, 2022

Van Hesser"s 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast ·

2022/01/14

In this week's episode, KBRA Chief Strategist Van Hesser discusses: Turning inward. The world’s two economic superpowers, the U.S. and China, have their respective plates full of domestic issues that threaten to slow global growth. Wide margins. Corporate pricing power, which is contributing to the highest inflation in 40 years, has boosted margins. The credit cycle. Some say we’re mid-cycle and others say late. We’ll have a look.

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9:35

3 Things in Credit: January 7, 2022

Van Hesser"s 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast ·

2022/01/07

In this week's episode, KBRA Chief Strategist Van Hesser discusses: 1. Risks. There is no shortage of things on this list, but we’ll highlight the ones that we are paying close attention to. 2. The jobs report. Our focal point remains more on growth in the labor force and less on the unemployment rate. 3. Supply chains are broken and driving the inflation narrative, right? The latest data shows the predictable correction is happening.

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10:49

3 Things in Credit: December 17, 2021

Van Hesser"s 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast ·

2021/12/17

In this week's episode, KBRA Chief Strategist Van Hesser discusses: Linear thinkers. The crowd that believes the recovery will be a straight line based on past experience runs the risk of pushing the Fed into a recession-producing policy error. We’ll explain. Geopolitical hot spots. As the Biden administration focuses internally on navigating America’s toxic politics, the likelihood of flare-ups increases. We’ll tell you what we’re watching. Corporate earnings are forecast to rise 9%

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10:50

3 Things in Credit: December 10, 2021

Van Hesser"s 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast ·

2021/12/10

In this week's episode, KBRA Chief Strategist Van Hesser discusses: 1. The leveraged loan market saw deals pulled this week, prompting some market heavyweights to wonder if this is the start of something bigger. We’ll weigh in. 2. China has become a remarkably fluid story influencing credit markets. Here’s what to watch in 2022. 3. Small to midsize business indicators are flashing yellow. Don’t lose sight of what is happening in this sector that is so important to economic growth.

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11:42

3 Things in Credit: December 3, 2021

Van Hesser"s 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast ·

2021/12/03

In this week's episode, KBRA Chief Strategist Van Hesser discusses:1. Omicron. We’ve sifted through all the noise to come up with useful perspective to creditors. 2. Nordstrom’s big earnings miss. What’s the correlation to the retailing sector? 3. One measure of investor sentiment has swung wildly in the past week. We’ll walk you through the equities-versus-credit story.

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10:00

3 Things in Credit: November 19, 2021

Van Hesser"s 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast ·

2021/11/19

In this week's episode, KBRA Chief Strategist Van Hesser discusses: 1. The fading away of COVID, at least in terms of its ability to disrupt. New developments on the therapeutic front might just make that statement true. 2. Retailers had a really strong week. Is the retail apocalypse over? 3. Raging inflation means margin pressure, right? Not so fast—we’ll check Q3 earnings to see where we stand.

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12:32

3 Things in Credit: November 12, 2021

Van Hesser"s 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast ·

2021/11/12

In this week's episode, KBRA Chief Strategist Van Hesser discusses: 1. Inflation. It’s back, but will it stay? Here is some much-needed perspective. 2. General Electric’s cautionary tale. Did investors overweight the benefits of diversification? 3. The Fed’s semiannual report on risks to the financial system is out, and it’s fairly benign. Should we be worried?

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9:27

3 Things in Credit: November 5, 2021

Van Hesser"s 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast ·

2021/11/05

In this week's episode, KBRA Chief Strategist Van Hesser discusses: 1. The spike in home values. We remain comfortable with the risks to markets and the broader economy, and there are opportunities emerging in what could be a housing “super-cycle.” 2. Where did all of the savings go? Apparently, it’s been spent, taking away one oft-discussed engine of future spending growth. 3. Government bond market volatility. Should we care?

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