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PODCAST

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

The official audio version of Astral Codex Ten, with an archive of posts from Slate Star Codex. It"s just me reading Scott Alexander"s blog posts.

technology

All Episodes

10:57

Updates on Lumina Probiotic

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2024/05/03

Lumina, the genetically modified anti-tooth-decay bacterium that I wrote about in December, is back in the news after lowering its price from $20,000 to $250 and getting endorsements from Yishan Wong, Cremieux, and Richard Hanania (as well as anti-endorsements from Saloni and Stuart Ritchie). A few points that have come up: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/updates-on-lumina-probiotic

en

01:38:51

Highlights From The Comments On The Lab Leak Debate

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2024/04/26

Original post here. Table of contents below. I want to especially highlight three things. First, Saar wrote a response to my post (and to zoonosis arguments in general). I’ve put a summary and some my responses at 1.11, but you can read the full post on the Rootclaim blog. Second, I kind of made fun of Peter for giving some very extreme odds, and I mentioned they were sort of trolling, but he’s convinced me they were 100% trolling. Many people held these poorly-done calculations against Peter, so I

en

17:15

Links For April 2024

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2024/04/12

[I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I will have caught them all by the time you read this.] https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/links-for-april-2024

en

03:32

Spring Meetups Everywhere 2024

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2024/04/12

Many cities have regular Astral Codex Ten meetup groups. Twice a year, I try to advertise their upcoming meetups and make a bigger deal of it than usual so that irregular attendees can attend. This is one of those times. This year we have spring meetups planned in over eighty cities, from Tokyo, Japan to Seminyak, Indonesia. Thanks to all the organizers who responded to my request for details, and to Meetups Czar Skyler and the Less Wrong team for making this happen. You can find the list below,

en

01:34:38

Practically-A-Book Review: Rootclaim $100,000 Lab...

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2024/04/12

Saar Wilf is an ex-Israeli entrepreneur. Since 2016, he’s been developing a new form of reasoning, meant to transcend normal human bias. His method - called Rootclaim - uses Bayesian reasoning, a branch of math that explains the right way to weigh evidence. This isn’t exactly new. Everyone supports Bayesian reasoning. The statisticians support it, I support it, Nate Silver wrote a whole book supporting it. But the joke goes that you do Bayesian reasoning by doing normal reasoning while muttering

en

18:04

In Continued Defense Of Non-Frequentist Probabilities

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2024/04/05

It’s every blogger’s curse to return to the same arguments again and again. Matt Yglesias has to keep writing “maybe we should do popular things instead of unpopular ones”, Freddie de Boer has to keep writing “the way culture depicts mental illness is bad”, and for whatever reason, I keep getting in fights about whether you can have probabilities for non-repeating, hard-to-model events. For example: What is the probability that Joe Biden will win the 2024 election? What is the probability that

en

11:49

The Mystery Of Internet Survey IQs

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2024/03/20

I have data from two big Internet surveys, Less Wrong 2014 and Clearer Thinking 2023. Both asked questions about IQ: The average LessWronger reported their IQ as 138. The average ClearerThinking user reported their IQ as 130. These are implausibly high. Only 1/200 people has an IQ of 138 or higher. 1/50 people have IQ 130, but the ClearerThinking survey used crowdworkers (eg Mechanical Turk) who should be totally average. Okay, fine, so people lie about their IQ (or foolishly trust fake

en

04:49

In Partial Grudging Defense Of Some Aspects Of...

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2024/03/20

Both the Atlantic’s critique of polyamory and my defense of it shared the same villain - “therapy culture”, the idea that you should prioritize “finding your true self” and make drastic changes if your current role doesn’t seem “authentically you”. A friend recently suggested a defense of this framework, which surprised me enough that I now relay it to you. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-partial-grudging-defense-of-some

en

03:39

Verses On Five People Being Killed By A Falling...

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2024/03/20

(inspired by Aid Airdrop Kills Five People In Gaza After Parachute Fails) https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/verses-on-five-people-being-killed

en

28:09

Mantic Monday 3/11/24

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2024/03/20

Robots of prediction, predictions of robots https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-31124

en

08:18

Spring Meetups Everywhere 2024 - Call For Organizers

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2024/03/20

There are ACX meetup groups all over the world. Lots of people are vaguely interested, but don't try them out until I make a big deal about it on the blog. Since learning that, I've tried to make a big deal about it on the blog twice annually, and it's that time of year again. If you're willing to organize a meetup for your city, please fill out the organizer form. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/spring-meetups-everywhere-2024-call

en

20:56

How Should We Think About Race And "Lived Experience"?

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2024/03/15

The consensus says "biological race doesn't exist". But if race doesn't exist, how do we justify affirmative action, cultural appropriation, and all our other race-related practices? The consensus says that, although race doesn't exist biologically, it exists as a series of formative experiences. Black children are raised by black mothers in black communities, think of themselves as black, identify with black role models, and face anti-black prejudice. By the time they're grown up, they've had

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10:08

ACX Grants Followup Impact Market

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2024/03/15

I. What’s Going On We got 351 proposals for ACX Grants, but were only able to fund 34 of them. I’m not a professional grant evaluator and can’t guarantee there aren’t some jewels hidden among the remaining 317. The plan has always been to run an impact market - a site where investors crowdfund some of the remaining grant proposals. If the project goes well, then philanthropists who missed it the first time (eg me) will pay the investors for funding it, potentially earning them a big profit. In our

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16:34

Who Predicted 2023?

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2024/03/15

Winners and takeaways from last year's prediction contest I. The Annual Forecasting Contest …is one of my favorite parts of this blog. I get a spreadsheet with what are basically takes - “Russia is totally going to win the war this year”, “There’s no way Bitcoin can possibly go down”. Then I do some basic math to it, and I get better takes. There are ways to look at a list of 3300 people’s takes and do math and get a take reliably better than all but a handful of them. Why is this interesting,

en

03:46

Book Review Contest Rules 2024

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2024/03/15

All right, let’s do this again. Write a review of a book. There’s no official word count requirement, but previous finalists and winners were often between 2,000 and 10,000 words. There’s no official recommended style, but check the style of last year’s finalists and winners or my ACX book reviews (1, 2, 3) if you need inspiration. Please limit yourself to one entry per person or team. Then send me your review through this Google Form. The form will ask for your name, email, the title of the book,

en

31:04

Links For February 2024

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2024/03/10

[I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I will have caught them all by the time you read this.] https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/links-for-february-2024

en

06:15

Less Utilitarian Than Thou

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2024/03/10

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/less-utilitarian-than-thou

en

07:14

Who Does Polygenic Selection Help?

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2024/03/10

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/who-does-polygenic-selection-help

en

56:31

Highlights From The Comments On Polyamory

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2024/03/01

[Original posts: Contra The Atlantic On Polyamory (subscriber only), You Don’t Hate Polyamory, You Hate People Who Write Books] 1: Comments I Can Respond To With Something Resembling Actual Statistics 2: Comments I Will Argue Against Despite Not Having Statistics, Sorry 3: Comments By People With Personal Anecdotes 4: Comments On Children 5: Other Comments https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-polyamory

en

25:51

Mantic Monday 2/19/24

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2024/03/01

AI forecasters come of age / Prediction market reality TV dating show? / OpenAI's Sora https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-21924

en

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