PODCAST

FiveThirtyEight Politics

ABC News, 538, FiveThirtyEight, Galen Druke

The 538 team covers the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

news politics

All Episodes

42:54

Our 2024 Superlatives

FiveThirtyEight Politics ·

2024/12/16

How do you measure a year? In votes cast? Money spent? Or in “seasons of love”? On this end-of-2024 installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew tries to find out by making a yearbook and assigning superlatives.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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40:17

What Happens To Trump's Legal Cases Now?

FiveThirtyEight Politics ·

2024/12/12

Earlier this year, as President-elect Donald Trump mounted his campaign to return to the presidency, it seemed like one of the biggest barriers to his election would be the battery of criminal and civil cases that had been filed against him. Now, as we near Trump’s inauguration day, what will happen to them?Law professor and former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth joins the podcast to unpack the fate of the legal cases against Trump. She provides clarity on the status of the major cases, discusses

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32:42

A Topsy-Turvy Week In Review

FiveThirtyEight Politics ·

2024/12/09

What even happened last week?! On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew catches Galen up as he returns from a rare week away from his push notifications. They take a look at President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet picks, the status of House Republicans’ slim majority, and examine the polling on President Joe Biden’s controversial pardon of his son Hunter. They also turn an eye to foreign affairs, checking in on recent developments in South Korea and Syria.Learn more about your ad

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48:35

Your Post-Election Questions, Answered

FiveThirtyEight Politics ·

2024/12/05

In this post-election mailbag episode, the crew tackles your burning questions about the 2024 election. Why did Democrats have lower turnout than four years ago? Is misinformation skewing some voters’ view of reality? Did Harris lose because of her candidacy and campaign style, or due to the broader political environment? And where does post-election voter data even come from, anyways?Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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39:30

The 2026 Midterms Are Only 701 Days Away

FiveThirtyEight Politics ·

2024/12/02

Galen is out today, so 538’s Nathaniel Rakich steps in to guide the crew through the numbers. They unpack President Joe Biden’s surprise decision to pardon his son Hunter, exploring the historical context for such a move and how it might resonate with the American public. They also turn their attention to the 2026 midterm elections, analyzing the prospects for both the House and Senate. They discuss whether Republicans can hang on to their trifecta, and examine the challenges Democrats face in their

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42:14

Voters Lose Their Appetite For Incumbents

FiveThirtyEight Politics ·

2024/11/25

In this Thanksgiving week installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew sits down for a three-course discussion. First, a new poll suggests that economic sentiment data might be even more warped by partisanship than we thought. After that, it’s another round of "Buy, Sell, Hold." Will the Senate confirm Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence? Will President-elect Donald Trump pardon himself? Finally, the crew considers whether 2024 will go down as the death knell of the incumbent

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28:22

How The Polls Did In 2024

FiveThirtyEight Politics ·

2024/11/21

Election Day was a moment of truth for pollsters. After high-profile misses in 2016 and 2020, and with a public that has become less trusting of polling, 2024 had the potential to be a make-or-break year for the polls.Two weeks later, pollsters are, on the whole, breathing sighs of relief. Polls were less error-prone this year than in 2016 and 2020. By one measure, state-level polling was the most accurate it’s been in at least 25 years. But that’s not the whole story. In this installment of the

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40:36

What Americans Expect From Trump's Second Term

FiveThirtyEight Politics ·

2024/11/18

We are beginning to get a clearer view of what a second Trump administration might look like. President-elect Donald Trump is announcing his cabinet picks, the size of Republicans' majority in Congress is coming into focus, and this has all led to predictions about what will and won’t happen in a second Trump administration.In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we turn to predictions markets and polling to assess the expectations that consumers, Wall Street traders, online bettors and

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41:11

A 'Realignment' Among Latino Voters

FiveThirtyEight Politics ·

2024/11/14

Latino voters made a big jump to the right this election cycle. While the numbers aren’t final, AP Votecast reports an 8-point shift and Edison exit polls indicate more than a 14-point swing. Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, joins us on the podcast to unpack why Latino voters shifted right. He discusses the importance of issues like the economy and immigration, Trump’s appeal and how Latino voters have emerged as one of the nation’s most prominent swing groups. Learn more about your ad

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40:35

The Best And Worst Post-Election Hot Takes

FiveThirtyEight Politics ·

2024/11/11

Since Election Day, there’s been no shortage of hot takes explaining what happened and what it all means. Have Democrats lost the working class? Does President-elect Donald Trump have an unprecedentedly powerful mandate? Were the polls wrong? On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew dives into these questions and others, determining which ones are more fact than fiction. They also check in on the status of the House and Senate and discuss how many downballot Democrats managed to

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35:56

Donald Trump Wins The Presidency

FiveThirtyEight Politics ·

2024/11/06

In this late-night, election-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the results showing Donald Trump winning a second presidential term.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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43:41

An Hour-By-Hour Guide To Election Night

FiveThirtyEight Politics ·

2024/11/05

At long last, Election Day is upon us. In this final pre-results episode, the crew shares a guide for what to expect on election night — from the first poll closures in Indiana, to the last poll closures in Alaska. They set expectations for how long the vote may take to tally and which counties to keep an eye on.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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41:33

The Pollercoaster Takes A Final Plunge

FiveThirtyEight Politics ·

2024/11/04

Polls were coming in hot and heavy over the weekend! In fact, 164 surveys were entered into the 538 database since Friday. In this Election Day eve episode of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with senior researcher Mary Radcliffe and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik about what we are seeing in those final polls. They discuss the famed Iowa Poll from Ann Selzer, which showed a rosy picture for Harris, and the battleground polling from the New York Times, which showed results

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40:40

Galen’s Cauldron Of Queries

FiveThirtyEight Politics ·

2024/10/31

It’s not just election season; it’s spooky season, too.In this Halloween installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew opens up the mailbag and answers listeners’ questions. Does favorability matter? Can bad weather affect turnout? And what would you do with an election crystal ball? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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36:34

Will 2024 Be A Disputed Election?

FiveThirtyEight Politics ·

2024/10/30

Looking back on the 2020 election, the time between Election Day and Inauguration Day stands out as one of the most fraught and uncertain in recent American history. Will 2024 follow a similar path? In this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks with Larry Norden, vice president of the Elections and Government Program at the Brennan Center, to provide a clearer picture of what we might expect after Election Day. They discuss when results could be expected, the types of misinformation that

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36:38

Do Voters Care About Democracy?

FiveThirtyEight Politics ·

2024/10/28

Last week, John Kelly, former President Donald Trump’s longest-serving chief of staff, said Trump fit the definition of a “fascist.” Democrats have seized on the comment, using it to underline Trump’s anti-democratic tendencies in these final days before Election Day.On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses how much voters care about democracy. And they look at a new poll that might shed light on the behavior of a new group of swing voters: young men. Learn more about

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33:42

The Most Valuable Data Point

FiveThirtyEight Politics ·

2024/10/24

We are awash in data. As Election Day draws near, and new polls continue to pile up, our information overload will only intensify. So today on the 538 Politics podcast, we’re simplifying. We asked 11 very smart people just one question: What is the most valuable data point you’re watching to understand this election? These are their answers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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41:16

How the Diploma Divide Took Over Our Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics ·

2024/10/23

For decades, Republicans were thought of as the country club set, while Democrats were the party of the working class. But increasingly, education has become a larger dividing line in American politics than economic status. This trend has seen college-educated voters move toward the Democratic Party and non-college-educated voters shift toward Republicans.In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Matt Grossmann and David Hopkins, authors of "Polarized by Degrees: How the

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39:11

A New Kind Of Undecided Voter

FiveThirtyEight Politics ·

2024/10/21

With Election Day just two weeks away, Republicans and Democrats are zeroing in on undecided voters. But the profile of the typical swing voter has changed. Move over, soccer moms. Say hello to … podcast bros? In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew looks at who the undecided voters are in this election. They also examine what appears to be a surprisingly competitive Senate race in ruby-red Nebraska. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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45:58

A 538 Election Road Trip

FiveThirtyEight Politics ·

2024/10/17

We talk plenty about the presidential race on the 538 Politics podcast, but of course, that is not the only thing on the ballot this November. Americans will cast their votes in races for the U.S. Senate and House, as well as dozens of ballot initiatives. In this installment of the podcast, we’re going on a road trip across the country to cover as many noteworthy downballot races as possible. We start in the 538 podcast studio in New York state, where House Democrats are hoping for a better outcome

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