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PODCAST

Markets Update with TreasuryONE

Markets Update with TreasuryONE

Risk management covers a range of responsibilities that must be managed well in order to secure and maintain the proper level of liquidity, control the organisations’ assets, bring exposures in line with risk appetite and ensure efficient processes in a dynamic environment. TreasuryONE’s highly skilled market risk team has navigated the risk areas of foreign exchange, interest rate, and commodities for the last 23 years on behalf of our clients and is regarded as experts in the design,

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All Episodes

00:05:23

SA core inflation hindered by a weaker rand,...

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/07/19

It’s already been a busy week with an interest rate announcement still to come as well. Credit ratings agency, Fitch has fired a warning shot calling on the South African government to keep its debt to GDP ratio in check, or face a further downgrade into junk territory. Failing state owned enterprises and municipalities have drained the fiscus, non more so than Eskom, which, by the way, is possibly coming into more troubles. It’s former Chief Operating Officer, Jan Oberholzer will officially exit

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00:04:25

FED minutes take centre stage

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/07/12

The Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting took centre stage last week---almost all the Fed officials voted to pause in June to buy time to assess the impact of its monetary tightening so far---which is a cumulative 500 basis points to date….and the cracks from the tighter monetary conditions are starting to show up here and there…the non-farm payroll data, published on Friday, while still reflecting was softer than expected. But not sufficiently so to stop the Fed’s plans to bump rates by

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00:05:27

SA power crisis continues to take its toll on the...

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/07/05

Last week we watched Russia; this week it’s France, where nightly riots and looting events have popped up in some places - including Paris - following the death of a teenager at a roadblock. Although events may be losing steam, fears remain that similar flare-ups could spread. It is reflective of how flammable some parts have become due social inequality, income disparities and xenophobic trends in some parts of the world. Back in South Africa, President Ramaphosa’s Phala- Phala hangover

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00:05:05

Dust has settled in Moscow - what’s going to happen...

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/06/27

The dust has now settled in Moscow and now everyone is wondering what’s going to happen next. Yevgeny Prigozhin marched on the capital city –in what he says was to protect the Wagner group. The events of the past weekend followed months of tension between Prigozhin and Russia’s military leaders who have been pushing for control over the mercenary group. But the Wagner leader was never going to give up his cash cow without a fight. Any case…the one thing that we can take with some degree of

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00:02:49

The Rand is having a good June

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/06/21

The Rand is having a good June—managing to reverse May’s losses and even made back a little more ground. It has now reached a point where in the absence of a fresh catalyst, the ZAR faces a tough task punching through the R18-20 to the Dollar mark..it could enjoy a more consolidative trading session this week—barring any corrections in the US Dollar.

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00:03:42

MPC raises repo rate 50 bps to 8.25%, highest level...

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/05/25

#SARB #IntererestRate #Inflation

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00:04:42

The Rand recorded its weakest closing levels against...

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/05/22

The Rand recorded its weakest closing levels against the US Dollar on Friday - as South Africa’s risk profile continues to deteriorate. But the ongoing US debt ceiling discussions have put the greenback on the defensive - however a breakthrough is expected soon, which is expected to settle the markets somewhat and provide a boost for a broader risk appetite. The Rand is expected to take direction from Thursday’s MPC announcement. If the central bank’s response is considered too soft, the Rand could

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00:11:21

Andre Cilliers on Kaya Biz FM

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/05/16

Andre Cilliers, director and currency strategist at TreasuryONE gives insight on the performance of the rand #KayaBizzFM #TreasuryONE #AndreCilliers #ZAR #CurrencyMarkets

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00:12:53

The Dedollarisation Debate

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/05/15

A thought-provoking discussion about the concept of dedollarisation. In this episode, we explore the potential signs of a shifting global landscape away from the dominance of the US dollar and the implications it may have on international trade, currencies, and economic stability. #Dedollarisation #FinancialMarkets #GlobalEconomy #TreasuryONE #ETMAnalytics

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00:01:32

Rand calmer start to the week

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/05/15

After the vast moves from last week, we have seen that the Rand has started to stabilize a little. The Rand briefly broke below R19.00 against the US dollar but has traded sideways between R19.03 to R19.12 for most of the day. We did see the Rand move stronger in the Asian trade, and one can only hope that a few days of no new headlines could help the Rand break below the R19.00 level. The US dollar also firmed up in Asian trade, which allowed the Rand to gain more on the crosses, with the Euro and

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00:01:41

Record-breaking Rand

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/05/12

The Rand has been hitting the headlines for all the wrong reasons of late, and we did see the Rand touch a new all-time level, with the Rand touching R19.50 at its height today. The Rand did have some reprieve and is currently trading at R19.3000 against the US dollar. With headlines currently in focus, it only takes a negative headline to see the Rand break higher again, and the world now has its magnifying glass on the Rand due to the allegations of supplying munitions to Russia. All the

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00:02:00

USD-ZAR to near-record highs

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/05/11

The report that SA has been arming Russia has been the final nail in the coffin for the ZAR today, pushing the USD-ZAR to near-record highs. The USD-ZAR intraday high stood at R19.33, marking a week-to-date loss of more than 5% for the rand against the USD. If the accusations are true and hold water, sanctions on SA become a real possibility.

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00:11:11

Update on rand underperformance

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/05/10

George Glynos from ETM takes us through all the local factors that are hampering the rand currently, highlighting the problems at Eskom. #Eskom

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00:01:14

Risk sentiment remains unfavorable for EMs

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/05/08

Rand Update The rand is trading back towards the middle of our wider range, currently floating just above the R18.30 handle. Risk sentiment remains unfavorable for EMs, with most currencies unmoved on a lackluster day. Focus is shifting towards the US inflation print on Wednesday, with inflation expected to ease to 5.5% in April. That said, the dollar is holding its ground against the euro and the pound. Commodity Sector rebounds The recent turmoil in the commodity space has seen some reprieve

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00:02:06

US non-Farm Payrolls hurt EM

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/05/05

US non-Farm Payrolls hurt EM US non-farm payrolls surprised on the top side once again, coming out at 253,000 versus the 185,000 expected. Unemployment in the US fell to 3.4% in April from 3.5% a month prior. Average hourly earnings are also up. Treasury yields are also rising as interest rates could stay higher longer. We have seen the US dollar on the front foot, with the greenback trading below the 1.1000 level after the release of the number, and this has caused the Rand to weaken to within

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00:01:24

ECB follows Fed

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/05/04

ECB follows Fed The ECB followed in the footsteps of the FOMC last night by hiking 25bps earlier today. The ECB commented that they are not yet close to pausing interest rate hikes and are closely following inflation and pressures on the financial system. The gold price continued to rally during the day, with the yellow metal testing $2,070. The impact of tightening monetary policies and global recession fears backdrop have seen other commodities like Oil drop further and could continue to pressure

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00:01:30

Oil continues to fall

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/05/03

Oil continues to fall Oil is down for a third straight day, with WTI oil below $70 a barrel. The prospect of the US recession and the spillover effects worldwide is curbing oil demand. OPEC+ members will loom to cut supply, and with inventories in the US falling by less than expected, will this halt the slide? All eyes on the US Fed Will Fed Chair Jerome Powell speak dovish or hawkish after the interest rate announcement is key this evening? The market is fully expecting the Fed to hike by 25bps

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00:01:57

Risk-off ahead of the May FOMC meeting?

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/05/02

Risk-off ahead of the May FOMC meeting? JOLTS data came out under expectations for the second month in a row. It shows that job openings are declining and now sits at the lowest level in 2 years, indicating that the US labor market is cooling. The US equity markets are under pressure on the back of this. We are seeing more risk-off creeping into the market, with the May FOMC meeting starting tonight. Markets have fully priced in a 25bps hike, but the focus will purely be on the commentary post the

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00:01:16

Sideways until FOMC

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/04/28

The Rand and other currencies traded sideways for most of the day, with the Rand trading in a 10-cent range. We had a little flurry of activity after the PCE inflation release, but the action was quelled quickly as the number came out as expected (4.6%). The US dollar has been trading around the 1.1000 level for most of the day, and we believe markets will continue to trade in a sideways fashion, at least until the FOMC meeting next week. One thing to keep an eye on is the banking crisis in the US

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00:01:48

Mixed signals and uncertainty give Rand the jitters

Markets Update with TreasuryONE ·

2023/04/26

With renewed questions about the banking sector in the US and risk-off regarding the recession talk in the market, we have seen the market unsure of what can happen next, and the market has been trading erratically on the back of that. Just how erratic the market has been, we have seen the US dollar almost touching the 1.1100 level against the Euro, but the Rand and some other emerging markets have been under pressure. We have also seen Gold on the front foot. Generally, in a risk-off rally, we see

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