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PODCAST

Hold Your Fire!

International Crisis Group

Join Crisis Group"s Executive Vice President Richard Atwood as he dives deep into the conflicts that rage around the globe with Crisis Group analysts and special guests. These experts bring a unique, on-the-ground perspective to understanding both why those conflicts persist — and what could bring them to an end. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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All Episodes

41:58

What Hope Do the Ceasefire Proposal and Minerals Deal...

Hold Your Fire! ·

2025/05/03

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia Director, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, to discuss Donald Trump’s ceasefire proposal for Ukraine. They unpack what is known about the U.S. proposal and its potential implications, including the prospects of U.S. recognition of Russia’s claim to the Crimean Peninsula and Kyiv agreeing not to pursue membership in NATO. They examine Ukraine and its European backers’ counterproposal and

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45:00

Will Myanmar’s Devastating Earthquake Impact its...

Hold Your Fire! ·

2025/04/04

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Myanmar expert Richard Horsey about the devastating earthquake that struck Myanmar last week, challenges facing relief efforts and implications for the country’s civil war and its military leaders.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Myanmar expert Richard Horsey to discuss the aftermath of the earthquake that struck central Myanmar last Friday. They examine the devastation in Myanmar’s second largest

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44:54

South Sudan on the Brink of Another War

Hold Your Fire! ·

2025/03/29

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Daniel Akech and Alan Boswell about escalating violence across South Sudan, President Salva Kiir’s dismissal of both loyalists and opposition leaders, the impact of neighbouring Sudan’s conflict and hope of averting a return to civil war in the world’s youngest country.In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell and South Sudan expert Daniel Akesh to discuss the

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50:05

Israel Goes Back to War in Gaza

Hold Your Fire! ·

2025/03/22

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Max Rodenbeck, Mairav Zonszein, Amjad Iraqi and Michael Wahid Hanna to discuss the breakdown of the Gaza ceasefire, the likely effect on Palestinians in Gaza and the goals of both Israel’s renewed military campaign and the U.S. strikes on the Houthis in Yemen. Richard first talks to Max, Mairav and Amjad about Israel’s return to war, including its retreat from a three-phase ceasefire deal it struck with Hamas in January

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46:03

Trump, France and European Security

Hold Your Fire! ·

2025/03/17

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Gérard Araud, Crisis Group Trustee and former French ambassador to the U.S., the UN and Israel. They take stock of U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy so far, his administration’s seemingly competing visions for European security and how European capitals are reacting. They talk about diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine, whether the Trump administration can get genuine concessions out of Russia and the prospect of

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48:14

What Does the PKK Ceasefire Mean for Türkiye, Iraq...

Hold Your Fire! ·

2025/03/08

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group experts Berkay Mandıracı, Lahib Higel and Dareen Khalifa to discuss the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)’s announcement of a ceasefire with Türkiye following imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan’s call for the group to disarm and dissolve. They discuss the motivations behind the Turkish initiative to end the 40-year conflict with the PKK (a group designated as terrorist by Ankara and several Western capitals). They unpack

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49:22

A Decisive Turn in Sudan’s War?

Hold Your Fire! ·

2025/03/01

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell, to discuss the Sudanese army’s military advances against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Khartoum and other parts of Sudan amid a devastating humanitarian crisis. They assess what explains the shifting battlefield momentum and why an end to the conflict appears out of sight despite the RSF’s setbacks. They examine how both the army

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45:24

U.S. and Russia Start Ukraine Talks, Transatlantic...

Hold Your Fire! ·

2025/02/22

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe/Central Asia director, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, to talk about talks between U.S. and Russia over the Ukraine war and the growing rift in transatlantic relations. They unpack Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's remarks at NATO, apparently ruling out Ukraine’s return to its pre-2014 borders or NATO membership and Vice President JD Vance’s criticisms of European democracy at the Munich Security

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45:03

How Will Trump Deal with Iran?

Hold Your Fire! ·

2025/02/14

In this episode ofHold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director and Senior Adviser to the President, to talk about U.S. President Donald Trump’s Iran policy. They discuss Trump’s return to his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran even as he signals willingness for dealmaking with Tehran. They examine how Iran’s leadership views the Trump administration and whether supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s dismissive stance on diplomacy with Washington leaves any room for talks. They

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45:37

Trump’s Gaza Plan

Hold Your Fire! ·

2025/02/08

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein, Amjad Iraqi, Michael Hanna and Rob Blecher to talk about Donald Trump’s shock proposal for Gaza and its implications for the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Richard first speaks with Mairav, Amjad and Rob about Trump’s plan, which would include relocating Palestinians out of Gaza and placing the territory under U.S. control and how it has been received among Palestinians, Israelis and

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49:15

Can Diplomacy Stop Rwandan-backed Rebels in the...

Hold Your Fire! ·

2025/02/01

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Great Lakes Director Richard Moncrieff to discuss the fall of Goma, the capital of DR Congo’s North Kivu province, to the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group and its implications for Kinshasa and the broader region. They unpack the rapid collapse of Congolese forces in Goma, the role of Rwandan troops in the offensive, and how the city’s residents view the M23. They look at the Rwandan army’s presence in the Kivus, Kigali’s

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51:38

What's Next for Syria?

Hold Your Fire! ·

2025/01/25

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Dareen Khalifa and Nanar Hawach to discuss what’s ahead for Syria after the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. They unpack the offensive led by Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other rebels, the rapid disintegration of regime forces and Syrians’ hopes after more than a decade of war. They look at the challenges Syria’s new authorities are facing under HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, including protecting public order,

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50:32

Trump in Africa

Hold Your Fire! ·

2024/11/29

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Africa director Murithi Mutiga to discuss the implications of a second Trump administration for Africa. They examine how African leaders have reacted to Donald Trump’s election victory and why some might favour a more transactional Washington. They assess the Biden administration’s legacy in Africa, the shifts a second Trump administration might bring and the possible plans of outside powers jockeying on the continent for

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40:07

North Korean Forces in Russia and North East Asia...

Hold Your Fire! ·

2024/11/15

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Kyung-wha Kang, former South Korean Foreign Minister, CEO of Asia Society and Crisis Group trustee, to discuss North Korea and Russia’s strategic partnership, potential change Donald Trump might bring to U.S.-South Korea relations and what they mean for the Korean peninsula. They talk about North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia’s Kursk region to assist Moscow in its war against Ukraine, what Pyongyang and Moscow seek to gain from

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56:19

Trump and the World

Hold Your Fire! ·

2024/11/09

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Olga Oliker, Michael Wahid Hanna, Renata Segura, Ali Wyne and Amanda Hsiao to talk about Donald Trump's return to the White House and what it means for the world, whether the wars in Europe and the Middle East or crises and flashpoints elsewhere. He first talks with Olga about Trump’s pledge to end the Ukraine war. Does that means subjugating Kyiv to Russian influence? What does a more transactional Washington portend for

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48:33

Strongmen and Geopolitical Jostling in Central Africa

Hold Your Fire! ·

2024/11/02

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Central Africa project director, Enrica Picco, to talk about Chad, the Central African Republic and Cameroon. They discuss Chadian President Mahamat Déby’s consolidation of power since the death of his fatherIdriss in 2021, his approach to dealing with the fallout from Sudan’s war and his outreach to new security partners alongside Chad’s traditional ally France. They also talk about neighbouring Central African Republic

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46:05

The “Generals’ Plan”, Sinwar’s Death and a Year in Gaza

Hold Your Fire! ·

2024/10/26

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Tahani Mustafa and Rob Blecher to discuss Israel’s intensified military operations in northern Gaza, the implications of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s death and what is left of Gaza a year into the war Israel launched in response to Hamas’ 7 October attacks. They talk about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, particularly in the besieged north, where access to aid remains restricted. They discuss the “generals’ plan”, a

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39:17

Can Either Trump or NATO Membership Help End the...

Hold Your Fire! ·

2024/10/11

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia director Olga Oliker and senior Ukraine analyst Lucian Kim to discuss the latest developments in the Ukraine war. They talk about President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent visit to the U.S., what we know about his proposed “victory plan” and his efforts to ensure support from both sides of the aisle in Washington. They unpack the latest battlefield dynamics, including Ukraine’s Kursk offensive, Russia’s

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51:29

“Restoring Deterrence”: Dangerous Words in the Middle...

Hold Your Fire! ·

2024/10/04

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard speaks to Crisis Group colleagues Christina Boutros, David Wood, Ali Vaez and Mairav Zonszein about Israel’s military campaign in Lebanon, Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel, how Israel might respond and whether the Biden administration can avert an all-out confrontation that would draw the U.S. in. Richard first discusses with David and Christina Israel’s bombardment and ground invasion of Lebanon, its humanitarian toll, whether Hezbollah will fight back

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40:11

Will Israel’s Bombing Start an All-out War or Force...

Hold Your Fire! ·

2024/09/25

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein, Heiko Wimmen and Michael Hanna about the intensified Israeli strikes on Hizbollah militants in Lebanon and whether both sides can still step back from the brink of all-out war. They unpack calculations on both sides, why Israel has ramped up attacks recently and why Hizbollah hasn’t yet responded more forcefully. They discuss what an escalation into a full-scale war would mean for both countries and the

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204 results

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