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PODCAST

Excess Returns

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

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All Episodes

00:52:06

Big Rally. First Sell Signal Since April | Katie...

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/08

Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, joins us for her quarterly technical outlook on markets, sectors, and asset classes. In this episode, Katie breaks down what her indicators are showing for equities, discusses the implications of new DeMark signals on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and explores opportunities across sectors like healthcare, utilities, and energy. She also analyzes key macro charts including gold, oil, Treasury yields, and the dollar, and explains how

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00:55:27

Electricity Is the New Oil | Rob Thummel on the...

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/06

In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined by Rob Thummel of Tortoise Capital to discuss the critical intersection of energy and technology. Rob explains why “electricity is the new oil” as AI and data center demand reshape global power needs. We explore the future energy mix, investment opportunities across natural gas, nuclear, and renewables, and how investors can position for decades of transformation in the energy ecosystem.Topics covered:How AI is driving a new era of electricity

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01:08:35

The Expensive Truth About Cheap Investing | Bogumil...

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/05

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with investor and author Bogumil Baranowski to discuss one of investing’s most important mindset shifts: moving beyond cheap stocks to paying up for quality and exceptional opportunities. Drawing on lessons from Warren Buffett, Ben Graham, and his own journey, Bogumil explains how value investing evolves across three key phases—buying cheap, buying good, and learning to pay up. The conversation explores patience, conviction, dead money

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00:58:34

Evidence Based Factor Investing | Matt Zenz

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/04

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Matt Zenz of Longview Research Partners to explore factor investing, evidence-based strategies, and the challenges and opportunities in today’s markets. Matt shares insights from his engineering background, his time at DFA, and his current work running the Longview Advantage ETF (EBI). We cover the nuances of value, momentum, size, implementation, and how investors can think more effectively about long-term returns.Topics covered:Matt’s journey

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01:01:39

A Volatility Masterclass | Timeless Lessons from 30...

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/02

In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined by Noel Smith, co-founder and CIO of Convex Asset Management. Noel shares his unique journey from biochemistry and the military to market making, high-frequency trading, and running a volatility-focused hedge fund. We dig deep into volatility, regime models, income strategies, dispersion, tail hedging, and more, offering a rare look inside the world of professional options and volatility trading.Topics covered:Noel’s background: biochemistry, military,

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00:55:37

A Practical Guide to Market Valuation with Ben Carlson

Excess Returns ·

2025/09/29

In this episode, we sit down with Ben Carlson of Ritholtz Wealth Management and A Wealth of Common Sense to talk about market valuations, the rise of AI, investor behavior, and what history can teach us about investing today. Ben shares his perspective on why valuations are harder to use than ever, how market structure has shifted, and the lessons he’s learned as both a writer and an investor navigating major market cycles.Topics covered in this episode:Why market valuations are harder to use today

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01:08:41

The New Valuation Regime | Jim Paulsen on Confidence,...

Excess Returns ·

2025/09/27

In this episode, we sit down with Jim Paulsen to analyze the latest economic and market data through his lens of decades of market experience. Jim shares insights from his Paulsen Perspectives research, covering the job market, the Fed, inflation, valuations, investor confidence, and what they all mean for the future of the economy and markets. We explore why confidence is so low despite a bull market, how Fed policy is shaping market dynamics, and where investors might want to focus as the cycle

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00:57:18

Finding the Next Great Tech Compounders | John Tinsman

Excess Returns ·

2025/09/25

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with John Tinsman, portfolio manager of the AOT Growth and Innovation ETF (AOTG). John shares how his investing journey began, the lessons he learned from both successes and failures, and how those experiences shaped his current investment philosophy. We dive deep into the concepts of low marginal cost, profitable growth, digital toll booths, and the transformative impact of AI. John also discusses his approach to valuation, position sizing, and why he

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01:22:05

Finding Decade-Long Compounders with Joseph Shaposhnik

Excess Returns ·

2025/09/22

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Joseph Shaposhnik, founder of Rainwater Equity and former star portfolio manager at TCW. Joseph shares the investment philosophy that drove his track record of outperformance, why he focuses on recurring revenue businesses, and how he evaluates management quality and capital allocation. We also explore lessons from great investors like Warren Buffett, Bill Miller, and Peter Lynch, along with insights on valuation, portfolio concentration, and the

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01:26:29

The Average Return That Never Comes | Sam Ro on 10...

Excess Returns ·

2025/09/20

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Sam Ro to revisit his widely read post “10 Stock Market Truths” and explore how each principle holds up in today’s market. From the long game of investing to short-term risks, valuations, AI, and earnings, Sam shares a timeless framework for navigating markets and separating noise from signal.Topics covered:• Why the long game is undefeated• Short-term volatility and how to prepare for it• The myth of average returns• Asymmetric upside in markets

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00:56:29

Exceptionalism Is Ending. New Winners Are Rising |...

Excess Returns ·

2025/09/17

In this episode, William Blair Global Strategist Olga Bitel joins us to unpack her “Perpetual Growth Machine” framework and what it means for investors navigating AI, tariffs, inflation volatility, market concentration, and a shifting global order. We dig into why growth often emerges from solving problems, how monopolies can stunt future innovation, where AI’s productivity dividends could accrue, and why she sees the next decade’s best opportunities outside the United States. Olga also walks

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00:59:49

Bull Market on Borrowed Time | Ned Davis Chief...

Excess Returns ·

2025/09/15

Ned Davis Research’s Chief Global Investment Strategist Tim Hayes joins us to break down NDR’s “360°” weight-of-the-evidence framework—how price, breadth, sentiment, macro and valuation fit together—and what those signals are saying right now. We dig into why he still classifies this as a secular bull market with rising secular-bear risks, how to separate real breadth thrusts from dead-cat bounces, the evolving bond/equity correlation, mega-cap concentration risk, the case for value/EM in a

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01:03:31

Brent Donnelly on the Fed, Inflation, and Why 2% No...

Excess Returns ·

2025/09/12

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Brent Donnelly, veteran trader, author, and president of Spectra Markets, to dive deep into macro markets, trading philosophy, the role of the Fed, and how AI is changing the way traders operate. Brent shares insights from his decades in FX and macro trading, his flexible approach to positioning, and the lessons he’s learned about risk management, narratives, and humility in markets.Topics Covered:Why the Fed is becoming more political and what

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01:07:12

Cullen Roche on Inflation, AI and Why the Debt Crisis...

Excess Returns ·

2025/09/10

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Cullen Roche of Discipline Funds for an in-depth conversation on the economy, markets, demographics, AI, and investing frameworks. Cullen cuts through the noise to explain the real forces shaping inflation, interest rates, the role of the Federal Reserve, and why he believes the U.S. faces more disinflationary pressures than inflationary risks. We also dive into his “defined duration” investing framework and preview his upcoming work on portfolio

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01:04:32

This Hasn't Happened Since 1930 | Eric Pachman on Why...

Excess Returns ·

2025/09/07

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with EricPachman of Bancreek Capital to explore the intersection of data, economics, andinvesting. Eric shares his unique journey from the corporate world tohealthcare transparency and ultimately to building a data-driven investmentfirm rooted in information theory. We dive deep into employment trends,healthcare’s role in the economy, immigration, inflation, and how hissystematic process identifies companies with the endurance to thrive. ### Topics

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00:52:27

Cole Smead on Deficits, Inflation, and the Erosion of...

Excess Returns ·

2025/09/03

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Cole Smead of Smead Capital for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, history, and the principles of value investing. Cole shares his perspectives on fiscal largesse, inflation, passive flows, energy markets, U.S. exceptionalism, and the timeless lessons of Buffett and Munger. His insights bridge economic history with today’s market realities, giving investors a framework to think about risk, capital allocation, and opportunity costs.Deficits,

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00:57:45

31 Years of Lessons: Northwestern Mutual CIO Brent...

Excess Returns ·

2025/08/31

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Brent Schutte, CIO of Northwestern Mutual, to discuss the current macro landscape and what it means for investors. Brent shares his balanced perspective on the Fed, inflation, tariffs, concentration risk in markets, and why diversification may be more important now than ever. With over 30 years of investing experience, Brent provides valuable lessons from past cycles that help put today’s environment in context.The Fed’s dual mandate and why both

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01:01:43

The Hidden Risks of High Income Options Strategies |...

Excess Returns ·

2025/08/29

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Shawn Gibson and Eric McArdle of Liquid Strategies to explore the rapidly growing world of option-based ETF strategies. With the rise of covered calls, buffered products, and hedged equity funds, it’s more important than ever for investors to separate smart solutions from risky marketing gimmicks. Shawn and Eric break down how their firm approaches overlays, income generation, and downside protection in a way that helps advisors and investors

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01:01:55

Jim Paulsen on Growth, the Fed and the Case for a...

Excess Returns ·

2025/08/28

In this episode, Jim Paulsen of Paulsen Perspectives joins us to break down the state of the economy, the Fed’s policy stance, inflation risks, and what’s really happening beneath the surface of the stock market. Jim explains why the headline numbers often mask the struggles of many companies, why the S&P 500 looks stretched while much of the market remains undervalued, and what investors should watch as we head into the fall.Weak GDP growth, jobs slowdown, and why the U.S. may avoid recession

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01:03:30

Mike Philbrick on Gold, Bitcoin, and Rethinking...

Excess Returns ·

2025/08/26

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Mike Philbrick of Resolve Asset Management to discuss why the traditional 60/40 portfolio may no longer be enough, the role of “psychological commodities” like gold and Bitcoin, and how return stacking can change the way investors think about diversification. Mike shares insights on macro regimes, investor psychology, and why these once-fringe assets may now be foundational in building resilient portfolios.Topics Covered:Why the 1982–2020 period

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407 results

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