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The Kākā by Bernard Hickey

Bernard Hickey

Bernard Hickey and friends explore Aotearoa’s political economy together. thekaka.substack.com

news politics

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3:43

Thursday's Chorus: OCR slashed as poll shows NZ on...

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/10/08

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit thekaka.substack.comBriefly in the news this morning in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate:* The Lead: The Reserve Bank has cut the Official Cash Rate by a ‘bazooka’-sized 50 basis points to 2.5% and has indicated it may cut by more in November and February. Financial markets see the OCR dropping as far as 2.0%. Kiwibank Economist Jarrod Kerr told me last night a sub-2.0% OCR is possible if the economy

13:27

Survey shows economy 'stuck in the mud'

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/10/07

Briefly in the news this morning in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate:* The Lead: The NZIER’s September quarter survey of business confidence found a slump in expectations about the wider economy and businesses’ own activity in the next three months. Businesses reported they shed more staff during the quarter and were no more confident about employing more in the December quarter.* The Sidebar: The survey results increased the chances the Reserve Bank would cut the

11:46

PM tells jobless youth to leave to find a job. So...

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/10/06

Briefly in the news this morning in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate:* The Lead: Facing criticism over cancelling benefits for 4,300 jobless youth and forcing them to go home and be supported by their parents, PM Christopher Luxon said last night there were plenty of jobs in regional areas and these 18-19 year olds should move to find work. Luxon said: “If you want a job, you go where the jobs are. I encourage anyone to do what it takes to get a job.”* The Sidebar:

15:32

Thursday's Chorus: Where's the solar plan?

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/10/01

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit thekaka.substack.comBriefly for all today in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate:* The Lead: The Government’s electricity reforms yesterday focused on a vague, expensive and slow construction of an LNG port facility. But why didn’t it look at a fast and big rollout of grid-scale solar panels and electric battery parks? Especially given the one Meridian has built at Ruakaka in Northland has already suppressed

27:54

Wednesday's Chorus: Performative power politics

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/09/30

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit thekaka.substack.comBriefly for all today in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate:* The Lead: The Government has this morning announced a series of measures to try to get the mostly state-owned gentailers to build more electricity generation and try to restrain double-digit power price inflation. * The Sidebar: But the moves fall far short of the transformational reforms called for by consumers, and small and

18:45

Mini-Hoon: 'Why don't we buy back the shares?'

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/09/30

On the eve of the Government’s big electricity market reform announcement this morning, I chatted in a ‘pop-up’ ‘Mini-Hoon’ with CTU Economist Craig Renney about a CTU proposal for the Government to use the gentailers’ dividends to buy back the privately-held shares in the 51% state-owned Meridian, Mercury and Genesis, if they chose not to build much more power generation capacity to stop rampant inflation.Craig argues the gentailers chose to generate cash for dividends rather than invest in new

8:34

Tuesday’s Chorus: Some new New Building Standards

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/09/29

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit thekaka.substack.comBriefly for all today in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate:* The Lead: The Government announced new earthquake strengthening standards that redefined away $8.2 billion worth of strengthening work. It was widely welcomed by business owners, especially in provincial cities hit hard with empty old main street buildings sitting empty for years, unable to sell.* The Sidebar: Donald Trump has

10:08

Daily Chorus: The problems for our new 'Laser Kiwi'

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/09/24

I’m making the video above freely available to all free and paying subscribers as an experiment. If you like what you see, subscribe to the paid version of The Kākā to support this work being done in public. Paying subscribers can see more analysis and detail below the paywall fold in the text and chart version published earlier today plus my Pick n’ Mix Six of today’s scoops and deep-dives elsewhere. Paying subscribers can also comment on these articles and participate in The Kākā’s chat room

15:57

Choosing marginally lower mortgage rates

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/09/21

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit thekaka.substack.comBriefly in my Picks n’ Mixes and Daily Chorus of the top news, scoops and deep-dives in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate on Monday, September 22:* 1News reports this morning Christchurch Hospital Emergency Department doctors have sent a letter to Health NZ pleading for more staff, funds and space. * The doctors say they’re massively overloaded, often in code red and some patients wait so

57:09

The Weekly Hoon: The GDP shock; Economic capture;...

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/09/18

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking with regular guests Cathrine Dyer and Robert Patman about the global economy, local and international politics and climate change. This week’s special guests were CTU Economist Craig Renney and Monopoly Watch’s Tex Edwards.This week’s Hoon featured:* The fall of US democracy;* Israel’s invasion (again) of Gaza and whether New Zealand will recognise Palestine

26:45

Voters & business leaders now blaming Govt for...

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/09/16

Just briefly in our political economy today, two new surveys show both voters and business leaders are now blaming the current National-led Government, rather than the previous Labour Government, for an ongoing economic slump that worsened again in August.There is more detail and analysis below, and in the video and podcast above. I have published a lightly-edited transcript of my video below. I’m able to do this work in public covering Aotearoa’s political economy because of support from paying

54:13

The Weekly Hoon: Productivity & workplace safety;...

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/09/11

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking with regular guests Cathrine Dyer and Robert Patman about the global economy, local and international politics and climate change. This week’s special guest Simplicity Chief Economist Shamubeel Eaqub .This week’s Hoon featured:* An initial discussion between Peter and Bernard about the death of Charlie Kirk and Rupert Murdoch’s ‘Succession’ deal with his

10:39

Why a record-high 201 NZers a day are emigrating

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/09/11

A record-high 201 New Zealanders emigrated each day on average in the year to the end of July, with 58% going to Australia. Australia’s labour market is now accelerating ahead of New Zealand’s stalled market, further widening the 30% wage premium over the Tasman and providing job openings there while there are none here. Both long and short term policy decisions by the New Zealand and Australian Governments and Reserve Banks have driven the widening gap over both the last 30 years, and the last two

16:23

Govt gaslights voters on health costs/GDP

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/09/09

Briefly in my Picks ‘n Mixes and Daily Chorus on Wednesday, September 10, the top news, scoops and deep-dives in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate are:* To justify continued health sector wage and hiring restraint, the Government has repeatedly argued New Zealand’s health spending was actually higher than similar OECD countries as a share of GDP, having risen during Covid. * But a fresh report from Auckland University health finance experts shows the argument is

10:24

Why National can't afford true RBNZ independence

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/09/01

Briefly in this deep-dive below on the political economy of Reserve Bank independence:* A debate is now raging around the Government’s pressuring of the Reserve Bank on interest rates and bank capital policies, along with the opaque and messy exits of both its Labour-appointed Governor, Adrian Orr, and its long-time Chairman, Neil Quigley.* Both Finance Minister Nicola Willis and PM Christopher Luxon have breached the 35-year-long convention of not putting pressure on the Reserve Bank, which was

14:20

The Government just administered an inflation shock

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/08/31

Briefly in this deep-dive below on the political economy of administered inflation below:* The Government was elected in 2023 on a wave of public revulsion at inflation, which voters blamed on the then-Labour Government. Initially, inflation fell through 2024 because global oil and food prices had fallen in the previous 18 months. But it has come surging back in 2025, thanks to another burst of global food price inflation and a surprising cascade of new and higher Government and council fees, fines,

17:11

RBNZ says it remains 'fiercely independent'

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/08/28

Just briefly, RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway talks in the interview above about the central bank's meetings with politicians and how it remains "fiercely independent." Governments that interfere in monetary policy get higher inflation, he said.Also, Conway said:* The RBNZ was doing a ‘mini-review’ of whether it should have taken a more moderate approach to hiking interest rates in the current cycle, similar to that adopted by the Reserve Bank of Australia, which hiked 425 basis points in 2022 and

13:07

Still captured, after all these years

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/08/27

Briefly in my Picks ‘n Mixes and Daily Chorus on Thursday August 28, the top news, scoops and deep-dives in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate are:* The Lead: Economic Growth Minister Nicola Willis decided yesterday not to pursue a structural separation of the supermarkets duopoly, opting instead to bring supermarkets into the fast-track regime and hope that the likes of Costco chooses to expand beyond West Auckland. However, Costco was consented for a Christchurch

8:58

Govt goes for growth by selling residencies

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/08/27

Briefly in my Picks ‘n Mixes and Daily Chorus on Tuesday August 26, the top news, scoops and deep-dives in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate are:* The Lead: The Government has announced a new ‘Business Investor Visa’ (BIV) that awards residency to migrants who buy a business for at least $2 million, and a three-year fast-track work-to-residency for buyers of businesses worth over $1 million.* The Sidebar: The Government has yet to announce if these new BIV residents

17:48

What Christopher Luxon is doing to ensure 'modest,...

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2025/08/26

Briefly in my Daily Chorus on Tuesday August 26, the top news, scoops and deep-dives in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate are:* The Lead: PM Christopher Luxon let slip yesterday he met with Reserve Bank Governor Christian Hawkesby last week just before the bank’s surprisingly dovish rate cut. Luxon told Hawkesby the central bank had been too slow to cut rates. He also welcomed the Reserve Bank’s proposals announced yesterday to loosen the capital requirements for bank

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