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"Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write." - H.G. Wells

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NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

Stats Chat ·

2025/09/30

Team Ratings for the Grand Final The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Storm 8.36 9.29 -0.90 Roosters 8.04 7.44 0.60 Panthers 7.83 8.50 -0.70 […] The post NRL Predictions for the Grand Final first appeared on Stats Chat.

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Briefly

Stats Chat ·

2025/09/28

From the Guardian: Exclusive: Study gives 85.7% probability Badminton House version of The Lute Player is by 17th-century master. As I said about a previous rating from the same company, there’s no way this probability is meaningful to three significant digits (except potentially to the computer). The company’s head, Dr Carina Popovici, told the Guardian: […]The post Briefly first appeared on Stats Chat.

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Panadol scare

Stats Chat ·

2025/09/22

R.F. Kennedy Jr managed to predict almost perfectly the day on which his research initiative would “find” “the” “cause” of autism. Of course, it’s easier when you don’t have to actually do any new research. What do we actually know about paracetamol and autism or ADHD? About a decade ago, there was a surprise finding […] The post Panadol scare first appeared on Stats Chat.

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Estimating rare proportions

Stats Chat ·

2025/09/22

There is a statistic circulating on social media claiming that the average person in the USA thinks 21% of the population is transgender. Obviously this isn’t true (both obviously it isn’t 21% and obviously that isn’t what the average person believes). It’s similar in some ways to the claim that some Americans think Iran is […] The post Estimating rare proportions first appeared on Stats Chat.

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United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 1

Stats Chat ·

2025/09/22

Team Ratings for Week 1 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Leinster 13.41 13.41 0.00 Bulls 8.86 8.86 -0.00 Glasgow 6.18 6.18 -0.00 Stormers […] The post United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 1 first appeared on Stats Chat.

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 4

Stats Chat ·

2025/09/22

Team Ratings for Round 4 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 10.67 11.56 -0.90 Bordeaux Begles 4.76 4.78 -0.00 Toulon 3.58 3.49 […] The post Top 14 Predictions for Round 4 first appeared on Stats Chat.

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1

Stats Chat ·

2025/09/22

Team Ratings for Round 1 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Bath 10.30 10.30 0.00 Sale Sharks 6.70 6.70 -0.00 Leicester Tigers 5.55 5.55 […] The post Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1 first appeared on Stats Chat.

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NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Stats Chat ·

2025/09/22

Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Storm 8.07 9.29 -1.20 Panthers 8.05 8.50 -0.50 Roosters 8.04 […] The post NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals first appeared on Stats Chat.

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 9

Stats Chat ·

2025/09/22

Team Ratings for Week 9 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Taranaki 9.03 5.30 3.70 Bay of Plenty 8.70 6.48 2.20 Canterbury 8.68 4.02 […] The post Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 9 first appeared on Stats Chat.

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AFL Predictions for the Grand Final

Stats Chat ·

2025/09/22

Team Ratings for the Grand Final The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Geelong Cats 30.57 15.04 15.50 Western Bulldogs 25.54 18.20 7.30 Hawthorn Hawks […] The post AFL Predictions for the Grand Final first appeared on Stats Chat.

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 3

Stats Chat ·

2025/09/15

Team Ratings for Round 3 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 11.71 11.56 0.10 Bordeaux Begles 3.95 4.78 -0.80 Toulon 3.58 3.49 […]The post Top 14 Predictions for Round 3 first appeared on Stats Chat.

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NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2

Stats Chat ·

2025/09/15

Team Ratings for Finals Week 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Storm 8.07 9.29 -1.20 Roosters 8.04 7.44 0.60 Panthers 7.21 8.50 -1.30 […] The post NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2 first appeared on Stats Chat.

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 8

Stats Chat ·

2025/09/15

Team Ratings for Week 8 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Canterbury 9.65 4.02 5.60 Taranaki 8.13 5.30 2.80 Bay of Plenty 7.41 6.48 […] The post Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 8 first appeared on Stats Chat.

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9

Stats Chat ·

2025/09/15

Team Ratings for Round 9 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Lions 13.60 10.01 3.60 Griquas 3.64 -2.85 6.50 Bulls 2.01 5.94 -3.90 Cheetahs […] The post Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9 first appeared on Stats Chat.

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AFL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Stats Chat ·

2025/09/15

Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Geelong Cats 27.86 15.04 12.80 Hawthorn Hawks 26.01 21.95 4.10 Western Bulldogs […] The post AFL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals first appeared on Stats Chat.

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 2

Stats Chat ·

2025/09/08

Team Ratings for Round 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Stade Toulousain 11.97 11.56 0.40 Bordeaux Begles 4.48 4.78 -0.30 Toulon 3.95 3.49 […]The post Top 14 Predictions for Round 2 first appeared on Stats Chat.

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NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

Stats Chat ·

2025/09/08

Team Ratings for Finals Week 1 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Roosters 8.56 7.44 1.10 Storm 8.07 9.29 -1.20 Panthers 6.62 8.50 -1.90 […] The post NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1 first appeared on Stats Chat.

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 7

Stats Chat ·

2025/09/08

Team Ratings for Week 7 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Canterbury 10.33 4.02 6.30 Taranaki 9.08 5.30 3.80 Bay of Plenty 8.19 6.48 […] The post Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 7 first appeared on Stats Chat.

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 8

Stats Chat ·

2025/09/08

Team Ratings for Round 8 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Lions 11.59 10.01 1.60 Cheetahs 2.36 4.33 -2.00 Griquas 2.32 -2.85 5.20 Bulls […] The post Currie Cup Predictions for Round 8 first appeared on Stats Chat.

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AFL Predictions for Finals Week 2

Stats Chat ·

2025/09/08

Team Ratings for Finals Week 2 The basic method is described on my Department home page. Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference Geelong Cats 27.86 15.04 12.80 Western Bulldogs 25.54 18.20 7.30 Hawthorn Hawks […] The post AFL Predictions for Finals Week 2 first appeared on Stats Chat.

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