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PODCAST

Global Data Pod

J.P. Morgan Global Research

Economists from J.P. Morgan Global Research offer their analysis on the economic data, macro trends and monetary and fiscal policy impacting the world today.

business

All Episodes

34:48

Global Data Pod Weekender: Inflation, politics, and...

Global Data Pod ·

2025/07/18

The latest data keep the inflation and growth backdrop challenging for central banks. Politics are an added wrinkle for the Fed.Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 18 July 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed

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32:26

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation monitor: June...

Global Data Pod ·

2025/07/17

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson to discuss key takeaways from the June CPI reports and key drivers shaping the outlook. Global core inflation remains stuck close to a 3%ar following a broad-based––and somewhat unexpected––firming in services inflation (ex Asia) in June, and broad stability in core goods inflation. US inflation data show increasing evidence of tariff pass-through to core goods prices but overall core inflation has still come in softer than we expected in recent months

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31:59

Global Data Pod Weekender: Let me count the ways

Global Data Pod ·

2025/07/11

Our global forecast looks for a sharp slowing in growth in the coming months, concentrated in the US. Despite this contrasting with the more benign outlook apparent in risk markets, we see downside risks edging higher on US trade and immigration policies. Recent US fiscal policies should provide some offset but likely less than advertised.Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 11 July 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional

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37:54

Global Data Pod Weekender: Taking stock at midyear

Global Data Pod ·

2025/06/27

We published our midyear outlook this week, highlighting expectations for a significant stagflationary shift in 2H25 and our limited confidence in forecasting the magnitude of this shift. We expect global GDP growth to fall well below potential, while the US tariff shock is expected to increase overall global inflation. Despite the uncertainty, we are observing a shift in market signals away from the narrative of weaker growth and rising inflation. One key message from the markets is a growing

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38:27

Global Data Pod Weekender: You can get there from here

Global Data Pod ·

2025/06/20

The first half is tracking roughly in line with our trend-like outlook just ahead of the US election last year. However, 2H25 should deliver a very different picture if our forecast is right. Assessing risks ahead of such an anticipated slowing is difficult but this does not stop us from debating. Central banks are leaning dovish in light of the downside growth risks, with the exception of the Fed facing upside tariff-related inflation risks. The Mideast war adds a new supply shock to complicate the

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35:22

Global Data Pod Weekender: Gauging the coming slowdown

Global Data Pod ·

2025/06/13

The drags on global growth related to the trade war are building but there remains considerable uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of the coming downshift in global growth. For its part we expect the FOMC will remain cautious this week and reduce the easing incorporated in its 2025 projections even in the face of benign inflation news.Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 13 June 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only

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28:43

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor:...

Global Data Pod ·

2025/06/12

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss key takeaways from the May CPI reports and the outlook for the rest of the year. While May inflation surprised softer in both the US and Euro area, pass-through from tariffs is still expected to push US core inflation higher with core PCE rising to 3.4% on a 4q/4q basis. At the same time, the Euro area’s path to 2% core HICP looks more assured after the unwind of the April Easter effect. We still think US trade policy

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29:57

Global Data Pod Weekender: Identification in the time...

Global Data Pod ·

2025/06/06

The global economy looks to be posting trend-like growth in 1H25. How much of this is underlying resilience in a healthy expansion and how much is transitory front-loading set to reverse in 2H25 is central to the outlook. The data show resilience, notably in job growth, but cracks are growing in global industry. We maintain a baseline of no recession while also seeing risks elevated at 40%.Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 6 June 2025. This communication is

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32:12

Global Data Pod Weekender: Not so fast on the off-ramp

Global Data Pod ·

2025/05/30

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton to discuss their view that hopes of a court-led off-ramp to the US war on trade are overstated. They maintain that the risks are skewed toward higher, not lower, tariffs. However, the trajectory of growth is complicated by prior front-loading and there is debate about how to track resilience. Weakness could presage recession, muddle-through, or rebound. The latter scenario risks Fed cuts only to be followed by hikes.This podcast was recorded on May 30, 2025

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37:04

Global Data Pod Weekender: A whole lotta shakin’...

Global Data Pod ·

2025/05/24

Our forecasts are in flux as a result of uncertainty around the transmission of the trade war shock and the potential for more policy surprises. That said, the data flow this week aligned with our forecast of continued resilience in April activity and May surveys, alongside a rebound in May sentiment readings from depressed levels. Our forecasts are in flux as a result of uncertainty around the transmission of the trade war shock and the potential for more policy surprises. That said, the data flow

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26:15

Global Data Pod Weekender: Short-term pain? No way

Global Data Pod ·

2025/05/16

The increased risks of recession and signs of significant disruptions in the goods market have likely played a role in getting the US to back off its draconian trade war policies, culminating this week in a substantial markdown in the tariff on China. We no longer see a US recession as likely but still see growth being weak over the rest of the year and also note downside risks if the trade war re-escalates.This podcast was recorded on May 16, 2025. This communication is provided for information

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21:09

Global Data Pod Weekender: Threat assessment

Global Data Pod ·

2025/05/09

The hard activity data continue to show resilient growth in the first four months of the year. We maintain our recession call owing to 1) front-loading that will impart a drag going forward, 2) material trade war drags that will further damp activity, and 3) sentiment that is falling sharply and risks becoming a drag on its own. Trade war news this week does not move the needle in our view. The Fed is equally balanced on rising risks to both sides of its dual mandate and unlikely to act absent a

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33:45

Global Data Pod Weekender: Transitioning

Global Data Pod ·

2025/05/02

Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss how the activity data continues to show resilience, an encouraging development that will help weather the coming US policy storm. Whether it is enough to support the transition to the trade war is the central question. Regardless, even absent recession, the risk of an extended period of soft growth should also be a concern. One factor underlying this risk is a lack of potential policy offsets, particularly in the US where the Fed is likely to remain on extended

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29:11

Global Data Pod Research Rap: Inflation Monitor

Global Data Pod ·

2025/04/30

Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss key takeaways from the latest Global Inflation monitor and the impact of tariffs on inflation in the US and the rest of the world. After a broad-based upside surprise in January, core inflation has shown a similar widespread moderation. The US CPI data show limited impact from tariffs through March, but we look for core inflation to jump to a 6%ar this quarter and next. At the same time, inflationary impulses in the rest of the world appear tilted to the

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35:24

Global Data Pod Weekender: Short-term pain, long-term...

Global Data Pod ·

2025/04/25

The hard data continue to highlight strength but it increasingly looks like we are reaching peak front-loading. The survey data are falling faster and point to a material deceleration. Whether this turns to recession will depend on the degree to which the US backpedals its war on trade. Beyond any near-term outcome, the risk is that the dismantling of the global trading order will do permanent damage.Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 25 April 2025. This

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31:17

Global Data Pod Research Rap: US-China: cost...

Global Data Pod ·

2025/04/24

China economists Haibin Zhu and TingTing Ge join Nora Szentivanyi to discuss the impact of a 100%+ US tariff rate on China's cost competitiveness on the US market and the scope for US-China trade to decouple as a result. With recent tariff hikes on China going well beyond our expectations of a hike to 60% ,we also discuss our latest assessment of the associated drags on China’s growth and what policymakers might do to mitigate the trade shock. This podcast was recorded on April 24, 2025. This

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38:01

Global Data Pod Weekender: Turn of the screw

Global Data Pod ·

2025/04/17

Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss how the goods sector activity boomed through 1Q but the signal to take is far less clear, particularly as sentiment looks to be souring. We maintain our recession call but also see the uniqueness of the event and note that timing is uncertain in an otherwise resilient expansion. Central banks turn a bit more cautious.Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 04/17/2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only

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45:57

Global Data Pod Weekender: When elephants fight

Global Data Pod ·

2025/04/11

Bruce Kasman is joined by Joe Lupton and Jahangir Aziz to discuss the post-Liberation Day back-peddling that has led some to breathe a sigh of relief. Not us. A 10% universal tax is still a very large shock (7.5x the 2018-19 trade war) and the huge 145% tax (and rising) on China is prohibitive. You cannot stop trade between the world’s two largest economies and not expect pain everywhere. We maintain our call for a 60% likelihood of a US/global recession.This podcast was recorded on 04/11/2025

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32:46

Global Data Pod Weekender: That’s gonna leave a mark

Global Data Pod ·

2025/04/04

A dramatic shift from the Trump administration toward less business-friendly policies leads us to revise up our already above-consensus recession odds to 60%. Along with the magnitude, the design of US tariff policies is hard to make sense of. Tit-for-tat retaliatory policies are underway. Beyond the cyclical damage, the long-term harm to the US is a much larger concern. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 4 April 2025. This communication is provided for

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29:34

Global Data Pod Weekender: Debating the R word

Global Data Pod ·

2025/03/28

Our baseline forecast incorporates sustained expansion but recession risks have become elevated – to a 40% probability – on concerns that aggressive US policies hit business and household sentiment. With the latest tariff increases set to push US core inflation above 4%ar next quarter, a household sector with a healthy balance will need to show a willingness to lower its saving rate to cushion this blow.Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 28 March 2025. This

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