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PODCAST

Telltales

An investing podcast + substack for people who want to compound their wealth over the long run and don"t mind sailing analogies telltales.substack.com

business investing

All Episodes

31:56

From Pasteur to Pay Packages in the Trillions (e2538)

Telltales ·

2025/09/10

SHOWNOTESA brisk, cash-flow-first tour through energy, technology, and healthcare: oil and gas realities, the federal balance sheet, big labor revisions, and the AI build-out—plus biotech’s backstory and fresh FDA/advertising policy moves.[00:00] Intro (n/a)[00:19] DisclaimerReminder that the episode is informational only and not investment advice. Listeners should do their own work and assume no guarantee of completeness or accuracy.[00:30] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand Oil pricing “stuck”

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27:04

Search Shake-Up: Google’s Win, AI’s Real Threat (e2536)

Telltales ·

2025/09/03

SHOWNOTESThis week we open with the Google antitrust decision, then dive into Exhibits C (Oil), B (Natural Gas), and A (U.S. finances) before a tech deep-dive on AI capacity, TPUs vs GPUs, and close with healthcare policy shifts.[00:00] Intro[00:38] DisclaimerGeneral investing discussion only; do your own work. Views are the hosts’ alone.[00:51] Exhibit C – Oil (Exhibit C)Geopolitics keeps crude “stuck” around $62–64 with a flat curve (no backwardation). Spare capacity from Saudi/UAE plus tepid

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36:56

Software History Part 7 - AI (e2535)

Telltales ·

2025/08/27

SHOWNOTESA fast-moving episode: Hunt opens with Exhibits C/B/A (oil, gas, U.S. finances), then we sprint through a crisp history of AI from Turing to Transformers before closing on healthcare—Berkshire’s UNH stake and how MFN drug pricing pressures PBMs.[00:00] Intro (—)Welcome to Telltales with Mike, Jason, and Hunt. Grab the weekly Cash Flow Memo and follow along as we hit energy, technology, and healthcare through a cash-flow lens.[00:57] Disclaimer (—)Informational only; do your own work. No

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31:59

Price Tags, Power Bills & GB200s (e2534)

Telltales ·

2025/08/21

SHOWNOTESA wide-ranging tour this week: oil demand vs. spare capacity, U.S. gas and fiscal tracks, and the cloud era’s security shocks that boosted both AWS and CPU demand. We close on healthcare policy, Intel’s maneuvering, Nvidia’s China fee, and what Snowflake/Salesforce/ServiceNow signal for AI ROI.[00:00] IntroMike sets the table for another 30-minute sprint through energy, tech, and healthcare, and points listeners to the Cash Flow Memo for exhibits and company pages.[00:00] DisclaimerStandard

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34:38

Oil Curves, Open Source & Autonomy (e2533)

Telltales ·

2025/08/13

SHOWNOTESA fast tour across energy, technology history, and healthcare—then a spirited debate on Tesla’s path: robotaxis or humanoid robots. Plus: where oil and gas balances sit now, what built Web 2.0, and why some healthcare names look interesting on cash flow.[00:00] Intro Welcome to Telltales with Mike, Jason, and Hunt, setting up a deep dive into energy, technology, and healthcare with the companion Cash Flow Memo. Quick reminder: this conversation is for informational purposes only.[00:00]

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33:43

Gas Gluts, Drug Flops & Software Pops (e2532)

Telltales ·

2025/08/06

This week the Telltales crew unpacks shifting energy fundamentals, tough healthcare headlines, the rise of Web 1.0—and whether Tesla’s robo-taxi dream justifies a half-trillion price tag.[00:00] Intro Mike welcomes listeners, frames the show’s cash-flow focus across energy, tech, and healthcare, and reminds everyone to grab the accompanying memo.[00:47] Exhibit C – World Oil Supply & Demand Hunt revisits OPEC+ production moves, Saudi-U.S. coordination, and secondary sanctions aimed at Russia. He

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32:23

Debt Spirals, DOS, and DoorDash Bots (e2531)

Telltales ·

2025/07/30

In this episode we swing from macro storm clouds to silicon sunshine—probing debt risks, tracing software’s evolution, and spotlighting a Samsung-Tesla chip alliance that could turbocharge robotaxis.[00:00] Intro :00:47] Macro Risk: Could 2008 Happen Again? (Exhibit A)Hunt draws parallels between today’s oil-market risk premium and the 4Q 2008 liquidity freeze. He warns that a repo-market hiccup—not a bond auction failure—could be the trigger, given money-market–fund flight. Jason advocates 7 %

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32:58

WAR Episode: WWII Code Breaking, Ukraine/Iran War Oil...

Telltales ·

2025/07/23

SHOWNOTESThis week we weave through energy geopolitics, U.S. fiscal chess, breakthrough healthcare economics, and the exploding compute demands of frontier AI—plus part 2 of our Software History mini-series.[00:00] Intro [01:04] Oil Market War Premium & Russia Risk (Exhibit C)Hunt explains how secondary sanctions on Russian crude—now part of U.S.–China talks—add a $10-15/bbl war premium. Market oversupply persists, but geopolitical uncertainty keeps Brent in the mid-$60s.[02:22] Natural Gas

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33:40

Energy Shocks, AI Moves, and a Punch Card Past (e2529)

Telltales ·

2025/07/18

SHOWNOTESMike, Jason, and Hunt connect the dots between geopolitics, AI infrastructure, and healthcare policy—always through the lens of cash-flow-focused investing.[00:00] Intro (Cover)Welcome to Telltales and the weekly Cash Flow Memo. Quick rundown of what’s ahead: energy, tech, healthcare, and a short history-of-software segment.[00:00] Oil Supply & the War Premium (Exhibit C)Spare capacity sits near 3 Mb/d, but conflict risks keep Brent in the mid-$60s. Trump’s proposed secondary sanctions on

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31:58

From Doom to DGX: The story of the GPU and Nvidia's...

Telltales ·

2025/07/10

This week Telltales flies from oil barrels to GPUs, showing how energy, technology, and healthcare each reshape an investor’s cash-flow lens.[00:00] Intro[01:00] Exhibit C – Global Oil Balance (Exhibit C)Hunt flags disappointing demand growth (+0.5 Mb/d) against a 3-4 Mb/d spare-capacity cushion. Prices hover near $65 only because Middle-East risk keeps a volatility premium alive.[01:51] Exhibit B – U.S. Natural Gas Outlook (Exhibit B)Dry-gas supply is capped at 106 Bcfd while LNG exports jump 2.5

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31:11

Deficits, Datacenters & Diagnosis (e2527)

Telltales ·

2025/07/02

SHOWNOTESThis week the crew dissects energy demand plateaus, a surprising federal deficit outlook, and why performance-per-watt now rules both hyperscale datacenters and your smartphone—before closing with AI’s domination of medical diagnosis and fresh biotech data.[00:00] Intro [00:00:45] Exhibit C – World Oil Demand & SupplyHunt notes 2025 demand is now expected to edge only 0.5 Mb/d above 2024. Mature regions (U.S., EU, Japan) stay flat, China dips, and “Other Asia” disappoints. Supply wildcards

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30:05

Chips, Chains & Cash Flow (e2526)

Telltales ·

2025/06/25

SHOWNOTESIn Episode 2526 the Telltales crew races through this week’s exhibits, rewinds the semiconductor timeline, and sizes up fresh tech-and-healthcare catalysts—from Tesla’s robotaxis to a federal ruling that shields AI training data.[00:00] Cold Open[00:00:56] Exhibit C – Global Oil BalanceHunt flags his revised crude-supply model: U.S. output unlikely to hit 13 Mb/d, Russia drifting under 9.8 Mb/d, and Saudi barrels rising. A 3–4 Mb/d surplus keeps Brent range-bound as risk premia compress

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28:55

From Iran to AI: Energy, Healthcare & Big-Tech...

Telltales ·

2025/06/18

SHOWNOTESTelltales dives into the week’s Cash-Flow Memo with a global tour of oil markets, U.S. fiscal math, fast-moving FDA reforms, and the AI talent wars—plus a new national sailing ranking and a teaser for next week’s chip-history deep dive.[00:00] Intro (–)Mike, Hunt, and Jason set the stage for 30 minutes of energy, tech, and healthcare analysis, remind listeners of the Cash-Flow Memo at Telltales.us, and roll the standard disclaimer.[00:38] Iran Tensions & Spare Oil Capacity (Exhibit C)Hunt

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31:12

Tariffs, Translucence & Tesla: A 30-Minute Tour of...

Telltales ·

2025/06/11

SHOWNOTESThis week Mike, Jason, and Hunt sprint through oil, gas, tariffs, chips, tech launches, AI financing drama, and the brewing revolt against pharmacy-benefit managers—wrapping with Harrow’s latest capital-allocation coup.[00:00] Intro [00:01] Exhibit C – Oil Oversupply & the Iran Stalemate (Exhibit C)Hunt explains why global crude stays firm near $65–66 despite clear oversupply, tracing it to dead-locked U.S.–Iran negotiations over centrifuges.[00:02] Exhibit B – Natural Gas Holds the Line

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34:35

Energy, Chips & Deficits (e2523)

Telltales ·

2025/06/05

SHOWNOTES[00:00] Cold Open[00:00:47] Exhibit C – World Oil Supply/Demand (Exhibit C)Hunt explains how OPEC + and Saudi Arabia are phasing curtailments out of the market—potentially adding 1.2 Mbbl/d in just three months—and why that could pressure crude prices if capacity rises to an 11 Mbbl/d run-rate.[00:02:09] Exhibit B – U.S. Natural Gas Outlook (Exhibit B)Despite AI-powered data-center hype, gas‐fired power demand is flat; LNG exports remain the bright spot, expected to average 16 Bcf/d this

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28:17

Nvidia's 70% Cash Flow Margins: Too Good to Last?...

Telltales ·

2025/05/28

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team analyzes Nvidia's upcoming earnings amid 70% free cash flow margins, explores the fascinating history of Intel's founding by the "Traitorous Eight," and discusses major developments in AI competition and healthcare.[00:48] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand (Page 1) Hunt notes oil prices holding in the $60 range despite OPEC+ production increases of 400,000 barrels/day per month. The backwardation in futures has flattened out, suggesting US production may

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31:01

Chips, Capacity, and Colossus: Reading the Currents...

Telltales ·

2025/05/21

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, we explore the real drivers behind oil prices, analyze new trends in semiconductor manufacturing and AI infrastructure, and unveil the first in a series on the history of chips, software, and biotech. Plus, Regeneron makes a surprising buy.[01:00] Oil Supply and Demand (Exhibit C)Hunt discusses Exhibit C, detailing global oil supply and demand trends. He notes that while demand is stable, excess capacity and increased output from OPEC+ could push prices lower. U.S

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29:12

CRACKING THE COST CODE: Pharma, PBMs, and the AI...

Telltales ·

2025/05/14

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently

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30:03

Parallel Islands: When Chips, Cars & Currencies...

Telltales ·

2025/05/07

SHOWNOTESIn this episode Mike, Jason, and Hunt weave together energy markets, semiconductor geopolitics, and healthcare shake‑ups to surface the cash‑flow signals that matter most for investors navigating 2025.[00:00] Intro[00:00:38] Oil & Gas Snapshot – Exhibits C & B (pp. 1‑2)Hunt dissects world crude supply, flagging likely production lifts from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Iran. Despite OPEC+ relaxation, Brent has held near $60‑$70, suggesting bearish expectations were largely priced

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32:48

Empty Shelves and Shifting Supply Chains: The Cost of...

Telltales ·

2025/04/30

In this fast-moving 30-minute round-table, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace and Hunt Lawrence assess how an accelerating economic split between the United States and China would ripple through energy, technology, healthcare, retail and more. Drawing on their weekly Cash-Flow Memo, they move page-by-page through a 20-page company list and three macro “Exhibits,” highlighting immediate supply-chain pain points and the longer-term strategic pivots each industry may need. (Nicoletti et al., 2025)A broad

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249 results

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