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PODCAST

Telltales

An investing podcast + substack for people who want to compound their wealth over the long run and don"t mind sailing analogies telltales.substack.com

business investing

All Episodes

31:11

Deficits, Datacenters & Diagnosis (e2527)

Telltales ·

2025/07/02

SHOWNOTESThis week the crew dissects energy demand plateaus, a surprising federal deficit outlook, and why performance-per-watt now rules both hyperscale datacenters and your smartphone—before closing with AI’s domination of medical diagnosis and fresh biotech data.[00:00] Intro [00:00:45] Exhibit C – World Oil Demand & SupplyHunt notes 2025 demand is now expected to edge only 0.5 Mb/d above 2024. Mature regions (U.S., EU, Japan) stay flat, China dips, and “Other Asia” disappoints. Supply wildcards

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30:05

Chips, Chains & Cash Flow (e2526)

Telltales ·

2025/06/25

SHOWNOTESIn Episode 2526 the Telltales crew races through this week’s exhibits, rewinds the semiconductor timeline, and sizes up fresh tech-and-healthcare catalysts—from Tesla’s robotaxis to a federal ruling that shields AI training data.[00:00] Cold Open[00:00:56] Exhibit C – Global Oil BalanceHunt flags his revised crude-supply model: U.S. output unlikely to hit 13 Mb/d, Russia drifting under 9.8 Mb/d, and Saudi barrels rising. A 3–4 Mb/d surplus keeps Brent range-bound as risk premia compress

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28:55

From Iran to AI: Energy, Healthcare & Big-Tech...

Telltales ·

2025/06/18

SHOWNOTESTelltales dives into the week’s Cash-Flow Memo with a global tour of oil markets, U.S. fiscal math, fast-moving FDA reforms, and the AI talent wars—plus a new national sailing ranking and a teaser for next week’s chip-history deep dive.[00:00] Intro (–)Mike, Hunt, and Jason set the stage for 30 minutes of energy, tech, and healthcare analysis, remind listeners of the Cash-Flow Memo at Telltales.us, and roll the standard disclaimer.[00:38] Iran Tensions & Spare Oil Capacity (Exhibit C)Hunt

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31:12

Tariffs, Translucence & Tesla: A 30-Minute Tour of...

Telltales ·

2025/06/11

SHOWNOTESThis week Mike, Jason, and Hunt sprint through oil, gas, tariffs, chips, tech launches, AI financing drama, and the brewing revolt against pharmacy-benefit managers—wrapping with Harrow’s latest capital-allocation coup.[00:00] Intro [00:01] Exhibit C – Oil Oversupply & the Iran Stalemate (Exhibit C)Hunt explains why global crude stays firm near $65–66 despite clear oversupply, tracing it to dead-locked U.S.–Iran negotiations over centrifuges.[00:02] Exhibit B – Natural Gas Holds the Line

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34:35

Energy, Chips & Deficits (e2523)

Telltales ·

2025/06/05

SHOWNOTES[00:00] Cold Open[00:00:47] Exhibit C – World Oil Supply/Demand (Exhibit C)Hunt explains how OPEC + and Saudi Arabia are phasing curtailments out of the market—potentially adding 1.2 Mbbl/d in just three months—and why that could pressure crude prices if capacity rises to an 11 Mbbl/d run-rate.[00:02:09] Exhibit B – U.S. Natural Gas Outlook (Exhibit B)Despite AI-powered data-center hype, gas‐fired power demand is flat; LNG exports remain the bright spot, expected to average 16 Bcf/d this

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28:17

Nvidia's 70% Cash Flow Margins: Too Good to Last?...

Telltales ·

2025/05/28

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team analyzes Nvidia's upcoming earnings amid 70% free cash flow margins, explores the fascinating history of Intel's founding by the "Traitorous Eight," and discusses major developments in AI competition and healthcare.[00:48] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand (Page 1) Hunt notes oil prices holding in the $60 range despite OPEC+ production increases of 400,000 barrels/day per month. The backwardation in futures has flattened out, suggesting US production may

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31:01

Chips, Capacity, and Colossus: Reading the Currents...

Telltales ·

2025/05/21

SHOWNOTESThis week on Telltales, we explore the real drivers behind oil prices, analyze new trends in semiconductor manufacturing and AI infrastructure, and unveil the first in a series on the history of chips, software, and biotech. Plus, Regeneron makes a surprising buy.[01:00] Oil Supply and Demand (Exhibit C)Hunt discusses Exhibit C, detailing global oil supply and demand trends. He notes that while demand is stable, excess capacity and increased output from OPEC+ could push prices lower. U.S

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29:12

CRACKING THE COST CODE: Pharma, PBMs, and the AI...

Telltales ·

2025/05/14

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently

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30:03

Parallel Islands: When Chips, Cars & Currencies...

Telltales ·

2025/05/07

SHOWNOTESIn this episode Mike, Jason, and Hunt weave together energy markets, semiconductor geopolitics, and healthcare shake‑ups to surface the cash‑flow signals that matter most for investors navigating 2025.[00:00] Intro[00:00:38] Oil & Gas Snapshot – Exhibits C & B (pp. 1‑2)Hunt dissects world crude supply, flagging likely production lifts from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Iran. Despite OPEC+ relaxation, Brent has held near $60‑$70, suggesting bearish expectations were largely priced

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32:48

Empty Shelves and Shifting Supply Chains: The Cost of...

Telltales ·

2025/04/30

In this fast-moving 30-minute round-table, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace and Hunt Lawrence assess how an accelerating economic split between the United States and China would ripple through energy, technology, healthcare, retail and more. Drawing on their weekly Cash-Flow Memo, they move page-by-page through a 20-page company list and three macro “Exhibits,” highlighting immediate supply-chain pain points and the longer-term strategic pivots each industry may need. (Nicoletti et al., 2025)A broad

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33:17

Tesla's Robotaxi Rollout: A Glimpse into the Future...

Telltales ·

2025/04/23

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses Tesla's robotaxi rollout, healthcare changes under the Trump administration, and Netflix's potential foray into sports streaming. They analyze the implications of these developments on their respective industries and explore future possibilities.[00:00:23] Intro Mike welcomes listeners to the Telltales podcast, where the hosts dive deep into energy, technology, and healthcare.[00:00:54] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt notes that

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37:02

Navigating Tariffs, Tech Troubles, and Energy Impacts...

Telltales ·

2025/04/18

SHOWNOTESIn this week’s Cash Flow Memo, the team examines the Fed’s market impact on tariffs, energy markets, and tech giants’ AI strategies. Hunt opens with Trump’s rapid tariff reversal amid bond auction jitters, then walks us through oil & gas supply/demand, U.S. budget dynamics, and the implications for AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, META, Walmart, Uber & DoorDash. We also pause for a message from Oakcliff Sailing and close with healthcare, energy, and financial sector updates.00:00 Cold Open: Trump’s

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17:35

Navigating the Tariff Turmoil: Implications for Tech...

Telltales ·

2025/04/11

SHOWNOTESIn this abbreviated episode, Mike and Jason discuss the recent tariff issues between the US and China, their potential impact on the tech and healthcare industries, and the implications of NVIDIA's AI breakthroughs for data center efficiency. They also compare the resilience of Coca-Cola and NVIDIA as investments during a potential recession.[00:00:54] Intro The hosts explain the reason for the abbreviated episode due to recording issues and announce the focus on healthcare and tech

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34:54

Navigating the Healthcare Landscape: Layoffs,...

Telltales ·

2025/04/03

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently

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34:36

Apple's AI Woes, Signal & Government Comms,...

Telltales ·

2025/03/27

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team dives deep into healthcare investing with a focus on Vertex Pharmaceuticals and Lantheus Holdings. They also discuss Apple's AI challenges, the complexities of secure government communication, and the outlook for energy markets in light of geopolitical uncertainties and the hunt for federal spending cuts.[00:00:00] Intro Mike welcomes listeners to the Telltales podcast, where the hosts bring the weekly Cash Flow Memo to dive deep into energy, technology,

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34:02

Tesla's Bumpy Road Ahead: Challenges and...

Telltales ·

2025/03/19

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the latest developments in energy, technology, and healthcare. They analyze the potential impact of a second Trump term on oil and gas markets, dive into Nvidia's AI dominance and the future of inferencing, and explore Tesla's challenges and opportunities in the evolving EV landscape.[00:00:55] Energy Market & Oil Supply Discussion (Exhibit C) Hunt believes that oil supply is unlikely to change based on the recent Putin-Trump phone call. He

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34:49

Chips, Budgets, and Genome Breakthroughs (e2511)

Telltales ·

2025/03/12

ShownotesIn this episode, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence cover the latest in energy, technology, healthcare, and updates on U.S. fiscal policy. The conversation explores recent developments in semiconductor manufacturing, natural gas and oil markets, and innovative breakthroughs in gene sequencing.[00:00] IntroMike introduces the episode and highlights key discussion topics including energy, technology, and healthcare. He reminds listeners to download the accompanying memo for

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32:54

Step Changes: Finding the Next Nvidia (e2510)

Telltales ·

2025/03/06

SHOWNOTES[00:00] IntroThe episode kicks off with Hunt teasing Tesla’s potential for a step change via autonomous driving, followed by Mike’s welcome to the Telltales podcast and an overview of the Cash Flow Memo. Key points include the focus on energy, tech, and healthcare, with a disclaimer about the informational nature of the discussion. The hosts set the stage for a 30-minute deep dive into macroeconomic trends and investment ideas.[00:41] World Oil Supply and Demand (Exhibit C)Hunt analyzes the

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34:08

AI Arms Race Heats Up as Transparency Comes to...

Telltales ·

2025/02/27

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the implications of Donald Trump's 2024 election victory on energy, healthcare, technology, and the broader economy. They analyze key exhibits, dive into company-specific news, and explore the potential impacts of policy changes.[00:00:59] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt expects a Trump administration deal with China to tighten the oil market surplus in 2025 by phasing out Iranian barrels. Despite predictions of peak oil demand, the

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33:42

RFK Jr: Tackling the Root Causes of America's Health...

Telltales ·

2025/02/20

SHOWNOTESThis week the Telltales Podcast dives into critical cash flow insights, spanning volatile oil and gas markets, U.S. government spending debates, and the disruptive potential of Tesla, NVIDIA, and healthcare innovators. Hosts Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence unpack the numbers and trends shaping investment opportunities as of February 19, 2025.[00:00] Intro The episode kicks off with a teaser about autonomous driving’s future in the U.S., followed by Mike Nicoletti’s welcome

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239 results

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