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PODCAST

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Hosted by Jacob Shapiro, the Jacob Shapiro Podcast is long-form exploration of geopolitics, markets, crypto, agriculture, macro-finance, commodities, ForEx, and much much more! Tune in biweekly for interviews with experts across the globe, and weekly for roundups of global financial and geopolitical events!

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All Episodes

01:09:02

Forecast Revisited

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2023/06/09

Jacob and Rob quickly discuss rumors of an imminent U.S.-Iranian deal that could allow 1 million bpd of Iranian crude to hit global markets, before checking on their 2023 forecast and seeing how well their predictions have fared in the first half of the year. From there, they offer a few key thoughts on what to look for in the rest of the year before turning to an important article published in Nature this week called The Illusion of Moral Decline. For the first time in his life, Jacob meets an

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01:00:55

Sucker’s Game

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2023/06/05

Cousin Marko rejoins the podcast at long last! Jacob and Marko start off with a rousing disagreement on the Russia-Ukraine war and its import on global geopolitics and markets. From there, they throw shade at wanna be geopolitical analysts who spend too much time pontificating about risk premiums rather than using geopolitics to find opportunities. After a brief discussion of Indonesia as an example of an opportunity, they offer their signature, cutting-edge basketball commentary

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53:30

ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED??

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2023/06/02

Jacob and Rob take a step back from the day-to-day melodrama of geopolitics and markets to talk about how they apply geopolitical insights to identify the countries that are poised to do best for the rest of the decade…and how they make investment decisions for CI clients based on this analysis.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Introduction(02:15) - Strategic Wealth(14:00) - Brazil(22:30) - Spotting Bad Analysis(27:10) - Turkey and Indonesia(32:07) - Speculation and Strategy(37:14) - Economics is Always

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43:24

Debate: The Future of Turkey’s Economy

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2023/05/31

Emre rejoins the podcast for a third time, offering analysis on what turned out to be an anti-climactic Erdogan victory. From there, Jacob and Emre look toward the future, offering opposing perspectives on what Erdogan’s victory means for the future of the Turkish economy and the performance of Turkish markets. If you want to see Emre’s charts, check out the pod on YouTube.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:30) - Election results analysis(14:00) - Future of Turkish economy--CI LinkedIn:

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50:58

No Cappuccinos After 11:30

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2023/05/29

Jacob welcomes Alfonso Peccatiello from The Macro Compass back onto the podcast for a conversation about Italian eating rules, the debt ceiling (should you care about it?), Chinese investment viability, and trade analysis on their favorite emerging markets.You can find more of Alf’s work: https://www.themacrocompass.com/--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(01:18) – The debt ceiling/U.S. macro(20:09) – Is China investable?(27:35) – Europe, specifically, Italy, Poland, and Romania(37:48) – Japan(43:44) –

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55:25

Failed Breakout

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2023/05/26

Rob and Jacob talk about a decisive week in equity markets and what it means for equity prices. They explore the “AI bubble” and how to separate signal from noise. From there, they turn to China to discuss unemployment and local government debt issues in the Chinese economy and why the grand reopening narrative has and will continue to be wrong. They close with discussing countries/cities at the center of changing geopolitical circumstances – Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, and Ireland – and why

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55:37

Preparing for Ukraine’s Counter Offensive

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2023/05/24

Fan-favorite Sim Tack comes back onto the show to discuss the key issues to watch ahead of Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Sim and Jacob break down the status of the Ukrainian and Russian militaries and explore the politics of support for Ukraine and how much time Ukraine has to defeat Russia. Bonus tangents on whether China will invade Taiwan and why you should care that the Sahel, a desert-region of Africa, is seething with instability and violence.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(11:20) – Where is

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01:00:43

Committing Geopolitical Suicide

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2023/05/22

Kamran Bokhari of The New Lines Institute rejoins the show to offer insights on the deterioration of political stability in Pakistan…and why the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better. From there, Jacob and Kamran train their sights on the South Caucasus, an underappreciated part of the world that is experiencing significant change due to geopolitical competition between Azerbaijan and Iran. They close with a few parting thoughts on Turkey’s recent presidential and parliamentary

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34:57

Thailand Election Analysis

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2023/05/20

Jacob welcomes Phillip Orchard onto the podcast to analyze the results of Thailand’s recent elections. They go over the results, Phillip offers some context on how to frame current developments, and they close with thoughts about the geopolitical consequences…with expertly executed basketball metaphors--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:20) - Election Results(07:00) - Thai history(20:00) – What does the opposition stand for?(25:40) – Geopolitical implications--CI LinkedIn:

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01:05:35

Geopolitical Flux -> Market Turbulence

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2023/05/18

It’s been a wild week in geopolitics and markets, but Jacob and Rob have got you covered. They discuss the slew of developments this week for the first part of the podcast, before diving deeper into the instability in Pakistan, global food prices, South America, and Germany’s commitment to Ukraine.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:00) - Markets/geopolitics overview(24:55) - Pakistan + Global food prices(41:53) – Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador(55:36) – Don’t sleep on Germany--CI Website:

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26:22

Turkey’s Election Results – Rapid Reaction

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2023/05/15

Jacob welcomes back Emre Dogru to discuss their reaction to Turkey’s surprising election results. What does it mean for investors and the region, and what should you be looking for as the contest goes to a run-off in two weeks? Also, how to pronounce the letter “g” in Turkish. (You’re welcome.)--CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/CI Website: https://cognitive.investmentsCI Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestJacob LinkedIn:

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01:01:22

The Trouble With Emerging Markets

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2023/05/12

To learn more about the Knowledge Platform, click here:https://www.cognitive.investments/research_adviceJacob and Rob talk about the release of CI’s Knowledge Platform and some of the broader macro themes they are focusing on, before turning to an around-the-world discussion of trouble in emerging markets. They close with some thoughts on the debt ceiling, U.S. dollar, and Japanese yen.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(04:50) – The Knowledge Platform Launch(05:45) - What Is It? (06:44) - Geopolitics and

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54:42

The Most Important Election In The Middle East

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2023/05/10

Turkey's elections may not be fair, but they ~are~ free.Jacob welcomes Ryan Bohl onto the Cognitive Dissidents podcast to discuss the least volatile region in the world – the Middle East. They talk through potential scenarios on Turkey’s upcoming election before exploring multipolar developments in the Gulf and in Iran, then closing with thoughts on the future of Israel and Syria's direction moving forward. --Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:06) - Turkey(16:16) - Gulf/Iran(34:24) – Israel(47:21) –

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56:45

Deep Dive: Uzbekistan and the Future of Eurasia

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2023/04/30

Welcome to the Deep Dive! We’re diving deep into the geopolitics of Uzbekistan – one of only two double-landlocked states in the world. In other words – Uzbekistan is one of only two states in the entire world that whose access to the world’s oceans is blocked by two states in all directions. Uzbekistan is a crossroads for the Eurasian continent, wedged between numerous foreign powers, each with their own interests in bending Uzbekistan’s behavior to their favor. China, Russia, the EU, Japan, India,

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01:04:18

The Movements to Nationalize Lithium

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2023/04/28

TAKE THE SURVEY (please <3): https://forms.gle/TA2YX3GfV335Ey8d7--Jacob and Rob discuss why they continue to be more optimistic about U.S. macro than consensus – and the important geopolitical implications. From there they touch on Turkey’s upcoming elections and why fundamentals are more important than headlines, before closing with thoughts the differences between Chile and Colombia and the recent spate of news around lithium nationalizations.--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro (02:30) - Jacob’s

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48:32

The Economics and Geopolitics of Fracking w/ Bethany...

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2023/04/26

In this fantastic episode from early 2021, Jacob speaks with Bethany McLean, an American journalist and contributing editor for Vanity Fair magazine. She is known for her writing on the Enron scandal and the 2008 financial crisis. They talk about her latest book, Saudi America The Truth About Fracking and How It's Changing the World. While the episode is old, the content in it is still quite fresh and deserves more careful thought and analysis. Enjoy!--Timestamps:(00:00) - Intro(02:17) - The

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01:01:37

Positive Outlooks, African Instability, and Warren...

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2023/04/21

Jacob and Rob are back at it after a few weeks apart. They discuss positive data they are seeing relative to current gloomy expectations, before discussing the biggest geopolitical issues of the last two weeks: Lula’s visit to China, Mexico-U.S. relations, the fate of the European Union and the Black Sea Grain Initiative. They close with some thoughts about the recent political instability in sub-Saharan Africa…and with a shout-out to Warren Buffett for coming around on our long Japan thesis

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01:06:32

Understanding Ransomware as a Service (RaaS)

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2023/04/17

Matt Pines rejoins the podcast to talk cybersecurity basics, including the overlooked importance of non-state actors and how that can affect near-shoring. From there, Matt and Jacob explore what changing technology can mean in a more geopolitical world, especially as it relates to Artificial Intelligence, before talking about aliens. Yup, aliens. Matt is a management consultant at Krebs Stamos and is appearing on the podcast in a strictly personal capacity.Survey:

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56:28

Immaculate Disinflation

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2023/04/07

Rob is on vacation this week, but the pod never rests! Chase Taylor of Pinecone Macro Research and Bulwark Capital pinch hits for Rob. Jacob and Chase talk about the latest developments in the U.S. banking sector before turning to commodities, especially oil and gas, to try and figure out where prices may be going in the wake of Saudi Arabia’s surprising production cut earlier this week. They close with some spicy NBA finals predictions. --Timestamps:(0:00) - Intro(1:50) - Banking crisis/Chase’s

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54:48

Prisoners To Nearby Prices - The Biggest Issues...

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast ·

2023/04/03

Jacob welcomes back Neil Townsend ahead of the GrainFox “Before You Grow” Event, where Neil and Jacob are both speaking. Together, Neil and Jacob try to look beyond recent headlines and identify the biggest issues affecting farmers in 2023/24 as well as discussing trends in land values and food consumption. They discuss whether farmers should expect a “war premium” to return to grain prices and their conclusion about where that war premium is likely to show up in the market may surprise you. They

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321 results

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