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The Kākā by Bernard Hickey

Bernard Hickey

Bernard Hickey and friends explore Aotearoa’s political economy together. thekaka.substack.com

news politics

All Episodes

12:52

Should the RBNZ be looking through climate inflation?

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2024/04/17

My pick of the six newsey things to know from Aotearoa’s political economy and beyond from the last 24 hours to 9:46 am on Thursday, April 18 are:* The Lead: Ongoing double-digit inflation in council rates and insurance linked to climate change is pumping up domestic inflation and is helping to delay mortgage rate cuts until late this year or even early 2025. So should the Reserve Bank look through climate change inflation? It says no, but there’s a risk climate shocks drive up inflation and

19:20

Is saving one minute of a politician's time worth...

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2024/04/15

TL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me in the last day to 8:26 am today are:* The Lead: Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced yesterday he had asked Waka Kotahi-NZTA to again consider digging a 4-km-long four-lane motorway tunnel from The Terrace to Kilbirnie, shocking Wellington’s transport planners yesterday, who said the $10-billion-plus cost was prohibitive and wasteful. (See more detail and analysis below.)* Migration: Stats NZ reported yesterday a record-high 226,000 non-New

8:34

Govt ignored economic analysis of smokefree reversal

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2024/04/14

TL;DR: The six news items that stood out to me at 7:26 am today are:* The Lead: Casey Costello never passed on to Cabinet official advice with an analysis for the BMJ showing that keeping Labour’s smokefree changes would have boosted consumer disposable incomes by $51 billion by 2050, more than offsetting $19 billion in net losses for the Government. Newsroom Marc Daalder (See more analysis and detail below)* Geopolitics: Iran attacked Israel for the first time, firing hundreds of missiles and

65:41

The Hoon around the week to April 12

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2024/04/11

TL;DR: The podcast above features co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale, along with regular guests Robert Patman on Gaza and AUKUS II, Merja Myllylahti on AUT’s trust in news report, Awhi’s Holly Bennett on a watered-down voluntary code for lobbyists, plus special guest Patrick Gower on the closure of Newshub.The six things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:* Chris Bishop rejecting

16:38

Antarctic heat spike shocks climate scientists

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2024/04/11

TL;DR: Here’s the top six news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above that was recorded yesterday afternoon between and The Kākā’s climate correspondent :* Antarctic researchers have been shocked by the speed of events unfolding there over the past two years. A new paper outlines the evidence supporting their belief that a ‘regime shift’ has taken place in Antarctica over the past decade.* A regime shift is an abrupt change in a system’s response to

15:35

When 'going for growth' actually means saying no to...

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2024/04/10

TL;DR: These six things stood out to me over the last day in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy, as of 7:06 am on Thursday, April 11:* The Government has refused a community housing provider’s plea for funding to help build 42 apartments in Hamilton because it said a $100 million fund was used up, the Waikato Times’ Stacey Rangitonga reported. It currently spends 40 times that each year on housing subsidies. (See more analysis and detail below)* Interest rate cut hopes for 2024 are fading globally

9:48

Back to the future, with a 2032 deadline

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2024/04/08

TL;DR: The six news items of note for me in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy as of 9:06 am on Monday, April 8 are:* PM Christopher Luxon announcing “nine ambitious Government targets to help improve the lives of New Zealanders.” Seven would return results to pre-Covid levels and one is adopted from Labour. Only one is newly ambitious: 80% school attendance. (See and hear more detail and analysis below and in the podcast) * The targets to shorten emergency department wait times, reduce cut treatment

15:12

The hunt is on for an asterix for farm emissions

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2024/04/07

TL;DR: The six news items of note for me in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy as of 9:06 am on Monday, April 8 are:* The Government is setting up its own experts group to review the goalposts for farmers to reduce methane emissions by as much as 47% by 2050, effectively side-stepping the Government’s official advisors at the Climate Commission.* The experts are expected to adopt a new measure called GWP* , which would give farmers a free pass to reduce emissions only slightly, and may even allow them

5:39

Dawn Chorus for Friday, April 5

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2024/04/04

TL;DR: The six news items of note for me in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy on Friday, April 5 included:* Just as the Government freezes infrastructure spending and grants to councils and slashes public R&D and science spending, ASB economists cite forecasts that Aotearoa-NZ faces an infrastructure bill of $1 trillion and call for cross-party consensus on user pays, along with more Government borrowing to pay for it. (See more detail and analysis below and in the podcast above)* Cabinet minister

59:29

The Hoon around the week to April 5

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2024/04/04

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:* Confidence in the Government, as measured by Roy Morgan’s ‘Right Track/Wrong Track’ survey, collapsed in March by more than it fell for Labour in any one month of the late-2021 lockdowns in Auckland. See Thursday’s email.* Confidence about the Government and support for the three governing coalition parties fell the most

24:18

New oil and gas to quadruple by 2030, threatening...

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2024/04/04

TL;DR: Here’s the top six news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above that was recorded this afternoon between Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer:* A recent surge in oil and gas development activity is threatening to overwhelm climate goals, with plans already approved that would quadruple new developments by the end of the decade, according to a new report by Global Energy Monitor.* If fossil fuel demand peaks in the next

10:53

Confidence in Government collapses

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2024/04/03

TL;DR: The six news items of note in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy on Thursday, April 4 included:* A Roy Morgan poll taken last month and published last night shows confidence in whether the country is on the right track or wrong track collapsed by 17 percentage points in March from February, which is more than it fell during any of the covid lockdown months in Auckland in late 2021.* But the poll’s measure of support for the respective parties showed little movement yet, with combined support for

48:49

The debt rules being used to strangle NZ

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2024/04/01

TL;DR: My top six news items of note on the morning of Tuesday, April 2 include:* A review of council borrowing has found central Government-driven debt limits are strangling big councils’ ability to borrow to build enough infrastructure for growth, although some councils are further tightening the reins with even lower self-imposed limits and by over-playing fears of credit rating downgrades (see more detail and analysis below and in the podcast above, which includes my interview with Te

13:49

Failing to internalise new realities

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2024/03/28

TL;DR: Here’s the top six news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above that was recorded yesterday afternoon above between and The Kākā’s climate correspondent : * An independent review panel into the emergency response to Cyclone Gabrielle in Hawkes Bay concluded “that the current national emergency management system is not fit for purpose.” * That was the same conclusion reached in three previous reports relating to this and other civil defence and

61:22

The Hoon around the week to March 29

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2024/03/28

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:* Finance Minister Nicola Willis unveiled a Budget Policy Statement that showed the new Government will have to borrow up to $15 billion to replace the same amount of tax revenue reduction from a slowing economy, unless it chooses not to go ahead with $14.9 billion of tax cuts. Willis pledged to go ahead with the debt-funded

13:10

Borrowing $15b more to pay for $14.9b of tax cuts

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2024/03/27

TL;DR: My top six news of note on the morning of Thursday, March 28 include:* The Government will have to borrow between $10 billion to $15 billion more than previously expected in order to make up for a slowing economy and to pay for $14.9 billion of tax cuts, according to economists for Westpac and ANZ.* Despite growing calls from the Government’s usual supporters for delays to the tax cuts, Finance Minister Nicola Willis said Budget 2024 on May 30 would include ‘responsible and affordable’ income

14:09

GDP-per-hour worked stagnant at 2012 levels

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2024/03/25

TL;DR: My six things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy as at 6:26am on Tuesday, March 26 include:* Workers have been treading water in output per hour worked for 12 years, an analysis of GDP data for 2023 showed yesterday, emphasising Aotearoa Inc’s lack of productivity progress since the Global Financial Crisis (See chart of the day below); * Our low-to-no productivity growth is thanks to low investment in public infrastructure, skills and businesses so any spare household and business cash

22:13

Simeon Brown threatens councils on water reform

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2024/03/24

TL;DR: My six things of note this morning for Monday, March 25 include:* Simeon Brown threatening intervention if councils refuse reasonable Three Waters-style mergers of water assets off their balance sheets; 1News Q+A (See more detail and analysis below)* Chris Bishop detailing four phases of RMA reform in two years to planners in a speech, then telling them politicians make better consent decisions than planners; (See more detail and analysis below)* John Key suggesting to Christopher Luxon he

62:17

The Hoon around the week to March 15

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2024/03/14

TL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:* PM Christopher Luxon said the reversal of interest deductibility for landlords was done to help renters, who would be grateful for the lower rents it would produce. But his comments are at odds with official research and the evidence of the last 20 years of rents and mortgage costs. See Thursday’s email.* The Climate

6:13

No, Prime Minister, rents don’t rise or fall with...

The Kākā by Bernard Hickey ·

2024/03/13

TL;DR: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said yesterday tenants should be grateful for the reinstatement of interest deductibility because landlords would pass on their lower tax costs in the form of lower rents. That would be true if landlords were regulated monopolies such as Transpower or Auckland Airport, but they’re not, and the history of interest rates halving from 2009 to 2021 while rents doubled also shows that’s wrong. ‘I think if you're a renter, you're very grateful for the fact that

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