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PODCAST

Excess Returns

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

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All Episodes

00:14:32

Finding Quality Value Stocks With Joseph Piotroski's...

Excess Returns ·

2021/06/06

Research shows that value stocks can generate an excess return because the market tends to overestimate their problems, and value investors benefit when it realizes that. But despite that being true on average, many value stocks actually have even bigger problems than the market has priced in. This week, we look at one of the quantitative strategies we follow that attempts to separate the winners from the losers within the value investing space. We discuss Joseph Piotroski's paper "Value Investing:

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00:50:50

Robert Hagstrom on Warren Buffett, Bill Miller and...

Excess Returns ·

2021/06/03

There have been so many books written about Warren Buffett that it can be hard to keep track of them. But before all of that could happen, someone had to be the first. This week we are joined by Robert Hagstrom, whose book The Warren Buffett Way was the first book that took a detailed look at Buffett's investment strategy. And subsequent to that, he has also published The Warren Buffett Portfolio and Warren Buffett: Inside the Ultimate Money Mind, which looked at how Buffett constructs portfolios

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00:21:32

Could ARK Pose a Systemic Risk to the Market? A Look...

Excess Returns ·

2021/05/30

The growth of ARK investments has been one of the biggest stories of the past decade in the ETF space. its flagship fund, the ARK Innovation ETF has seen its asset explode over the past year or so. In January of 2020 the fund had about $1.8B in assets and at the peak earlier this year the fund was at $27B. But many in the investing community have worried that the firm's rapid growth and concentrated approach to investing could have a significant downside if investor sentiment turns against the

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00:57:26

Inside the First Hedge Fund to ETF Conversion and...

Excess Returns ·

2021/05/27

With the rapid growth in ETFs, it seems like almost every product idea possible has been tried. So it is rare to find something that is unique and hasn't been done before. This week, we talk to someone who has done not one, but two things that were never done before in the ETF space. We speak with Robert Cantwell, the founder and CEO of Upholdings. Robert was not only the first person to convert a hedge fund into an ETF, but he also was the first to get approval to hold private companies within the

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00:18:28

What Valuation Can Tell You About the Market – And...

Excess Returns ·

2021/05/24

There is no shortage of discussion in the media about the valuation of the market. And with the big market run we have had recently, valuations have once again become stretched. But what does market valuation tell us about the future returns of the market? And is there anything investors can do to adjust their portfolios based on market valuations? In this episode, we take an in depth look at the major ways to value the market, how they are calculated, and the different ways investors can use them

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00:35:20

A Safety First Approach to Retirement Planning and...

Excess Returns ·

2021/05/20

The 4% rule has become one of the cornerstones of retirement planning. And in many ways that makes sense because investors who have spent 4% of their portfolio annually have historically had a very high chance of making their money last. But with expected returns on both stocks and bonds at historical lows, the 4% rule may not work as well in the future as it has in the past. This week, we explore this concept and look at a different approach to retirement planning with Dr. Wade Pfau, who is a

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00:16:53

Some Options for Managing Risk After a Big Market Run

Excess Returns ·

2021/05/16

The stock market has had a huge run since last March. That fact, combined with unprecedented government stimulus, the potential for future inflation and other risk factors has many investors worried. In this episode, we look at some things investors can do to deal with high levels of uncertainly, and the risks associated with them. We also look at the difference between what works in theory and what works in practice when it comes to adjusting portfolios during uncertain times. We hope you enjoy the

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00:57:14

An In Depth Look at Asset Allocation with Jim...

Excess Returns ·

2021/05/13

We are currently in a very challenging time for building multi-asset portfolios. The 60-40 portfolios is coming off one of its best decades ever, but the expected future returns on both stocks and bonds are very low. And unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus have added additional variables into the equation.This week we talk to Jim Masturzo, who is a partner and head of multi-asset at Research Affiliates and also helped create their popular Asset Allocation Interactive tool, to try to make

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00:17:49

Strategy Focus: Low Volatility Investing and the...

Excess Returns ·

2021/05/09

The success of of the low volatility factor can be challenging to explain. Investing theory teaches us that to get an additional return, we need to take additional risk and if we reduce risk, our return should come down with it. But low volatility seems to defy that rule. In this episode, we look at the low volatility factor, how it is defined, and why it works. We also look at how the returns of low volatility can be enhanced by combining it with other factors, and take an in depth look at our

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00:17:44

Six Potential Metrics to Help Limit Value Traps

Excess Returns ·

2021/05/03

Deep value investing is about buying companies that other investors don’t want. It is about investing in companies where the current situation doesn’t look great – actually in many cases it looks horrible. On average, investors tend to overestimate the problems in these types of businesses and as a result, stocks of these companies get cheap. But for some of these cheap companies, the situation is actually worse than what the market has priced in. These types of stocks are typically referred to as

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00:46:46

Investing in Freedom in Emerging Markets with Perth...

Excess Returns ·

2021/04/29

The emerging market universe includes a very diverse set of countries, many of which are sorely lacking in the types of freedom enjoyed by their people. Some of the biggest countries in emerging market indexes like China are also some of the worst offenders in this regard. It has been commonly accepted by many that investing in these types of companies is unavoidable for investors who want emerging market exposure and so most investors just ignore the behaviors of the regimes that run the countries

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00:18:38

Academic Research Spotlight: Migration by Eugene Fama...

Excess Returns ·

2021/04/25

This week, we look at some interesting research that took a unique approach to explaining the value and size premiums. We examine the paper "Migration" by Eugene Fama and Kenneth French. The paper grouped stocks into categories based on their size and valuation and then looked at how the migration between those groups impacted both the value and size premiums. We take a look at what they found as well as the lessons investors can take from it. We hope you enjoy the discussion. ABOUT THE

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00:15:53

The Three Keys to Understanding Investing Bubbles

Excess Returns ·

2021/04/18

With the stock market at all-time highs and returns over the past year some of the best in history, the word "bubble" is getting thrown around more and more by investors. But before we jump to conclusions, it is first important to understand what a bubble is and what the term means from a practical standpoint for investors. In this episode, we look at bubbles through a framework based on the three questions that we think are most important for investors to ask. 1. What is a Bubble? 2. Can a Bubble

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01:06:41

A Detailed Look at All Weather Investing with Eric...

Excess Returns ·

2021/04/15

The last 40 years have been an exceptionally strong period for a portfolio of stocks and bonds. With stocks performing well and bonds benefitting from a tailwind of constantly falling interest rates, a portfolio consisting of only the two asset classes has been all investors have needed. But a deeper look at market history reveals that there were significant periods where a standard stock and bond mix didn't serve investors well. In this episode, we take a deep dive into the concept of all weather

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00:17:21

The Changing Nature of Momentum Investing

Excess Returns ·

2021/04/11

Investors tend to associate momentum with growth stocks. If you try to name a typical momentum stock off the top of your head, you will probably think of names like Google or Facebook or Amazon. And that is especially true when we have gone through a growth dominated period like we have in the past decade. But the reality is that momentum doesn't care about growth. It doesn't care about value either. It also doesn't care about quality. All it cares about is that a stock's price has gone up. In this

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00:22:23

The Strengths and Weaknesses of the Major Value Metrics

Excess Returns ·

2021/04/05

Many investors think all value strategies are fairly similar to each other. And as a result they expect the value funds they invest in will all perform similarly over time. But the reality is that the behind the scenes details that go into building a value strategy can play a major role in how it performs and lead to major deviations in performance among value funds. In this episode, we take a look at one way that value strategies can differ - the metric they use to define value. We look at the

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01:03:02

The History of Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett...

Excess Returns ·

2021/04/01

There have been hundreds of books written about Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway. So it rare for a book come out that does something that none of the others have. But a new book coming out in April does exactly that by offering the first full chronological history of Berkshire Hathaway, from the period prior to Buffett all the way to the current day. In this episode, we talk to Adam Mead, the author of The Complete Financial History of Berkshire Hathaway: A Chronological Analysis of Warren

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00:17:46

Quantifying The Motley Fool’s Small Cap Growth...

Excess Returns ·

2021/03/28

The Motley Fool is not known for their quantitative models. They are known for a discretionary growth style of investing that attempts to identify game changing companies and then holds them for the long-term, seeking to generate returns that are multiples of their original investment. But despite their discretionary nature, their book The Motley Fool Investment Guide did contain a detailed quantitative model to select small-cap growth stocks. When we launched Validea in 2003, we wouldn't have

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00:55:24

Rafael Resendes On Intrinsic Value, Economic Margin...

Excess Returns ·

2021/03/25

Systematic value strategies have had one of the worst performing periods in their history in the past decade. This extended underperformance, coupled with changes in the market and economy that many argue are unfavorable for the strategy have led many to question whether it is permanently broken. As believers in the strategy, we have a natural tendency to discount these arguments and to invite on guests who support our opinion. So in this episode, we wanted to counteract that bias and look at the

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00:15:41

What Has Really Driven the Rebound in Value Stocks?

Excess Returns ·

2021/03/21

There is a popular narrative out there that value investing is back. And it makes sense given the huge run that many value funds have had off the market bottom. But when you look beneath the surface, it turns out what drove those returns may have little to do with value at all. In this episode, we look at what has actually driven the returns of many value strategies in the past year, and the opportunity it may create for long-term value investors. We hope you enjoy the discussion. ABOUT THE

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