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PODCAST

Excess Returns

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

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All Episodes

00:15:41

What Has Really Driven the Rebound in Value Stocks?

Excess Returns ·

2021/03/21

There is a popular narrative out there that value investing is back. And it makes sense given the huge run that many value funds have had off the market bottom. But when you look beneath the surface, it turns out what drove those returns may have little to do with value at all. In this episode, we look at what has actually driven the returns of many value strategies in the past year, and the opportunity it may create for long-term value investors. We hope you enjoy the discussion. ABOUT THE

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00:56:34

Machine Learning, Fantasy Football and Factor...

Excess Returns ·

2021/03/14

In this episode, we are joined by Kevin Zatloukal. Kevin teaches Computer Science at the University of Washington and has his Ph.D. in Computer Science from MIT. He previously was a programmer for both Microsoft and Google. He is also a member of O'Shaughnessy Asset Management's Research Partner Program, where he has written two papers applying machine learning concepts to investing. In the interview, we discuss the basics of machine learning and some examples of how it is applied, including: - the

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00:24:47

Lessons From Warren Buffett's 2021 Annual Letter

Excess Returns ·

2021/03/07

In this episode, we discuss the major points Warren Buffett covered in his 2021 annual letter and talk about some lessons investors can learn from them. We discuss: - the importance of recognizing mistakes and learning from them - why operating earnings are a better measure of Berkshire's business than GAAP earnings - the evolution of Buffett's investment approach over time - why Berkshire's approach differs from most other conglomerates We hope you enjoy the discussion. ABOUT THE PODCAST Excess

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01:00:28

Bridgeway Founder John Montgomery On Their Unique...

Excess Returns ·

2021/03/04

In this episode, we are joined by John Montgomery, the founder and CIO of Bridgeway Capital Management. Bridgeway is unique in the world of Wall Street, where profits are usually the primary motive, in that it donates 50% of its profits to charity, makes everyone who works at the company a partner, and strives to maintain a low ratio of compensation of its highest paid team members relative to the lowest paid. The firm has also built an excellent long-term record managing quantitative, factor-based

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00:19:46

Academic Research Spotlight: Replicating Anomalies by...

Excess Returns ·

2021/02/28

In this episode, we are trying something new. There is so much academic research out there about markets, and what drives their returns over time, that it can be very difficult for investors to keep up with all of it. So we are going to start highlighting some of our favorite academic papers each month and breaking down their key lessons. We start with paper Replicating Anomalies by Lu Zhang, Chen Xue and Kewei Hou. In this paper, the authors examined 452 stock market anomalies to see how they held

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00:26:21

GameStop: What Happened, How it Happened, and Lessons...

Excess Returns ·

2021/02/21

The rapid rise and fall of GameStop earlier this year was unlike anything many of us have seen in our investing careers. The stock's price went from the single digits to upwards of $400 per share in a very short time, and then lost most its value in the weeks that followed. In this episode, we take a look behind the scenes at the factors that led to GameStop's massive gains, and how those same factors eventually led to the ensuing decline We also take a look at some lessons investors can learn from

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00:20:53

The Elusive Definition of Risk – And Some Practical...

Excess Returns ·

2021/02/14

Risk is one of the most difficult concepts in investing to define. Part of that is because we face many risks as investors that come from many different directions. But another part of it is that risk is ultimately different for every investor, which makes a universal definition impossible to find. In this episode, we look at some of the most important risks we face as investors, and why they are impossible to disentangle from our own behavior. We also look at some practical ways we use to measure

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00:20:55

A Detailed Look at Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula...

Excess Returns ·

2021/02/07

Joel Greenblatt produced exceptional returns as managing partner at Gotham Capital, a New York City-based hedge fund he founded. The firm averaged a remarkable 40 percent annualized return over more than two decades .In his 2005 bestseller The Little Book That Beats The Market, Greenblatt laid out a very simple two variable strategy that more than doubled the market return in his testing. In this episode, we take a deep dive into the magic formula, how it works, and its pros and cons. We hope you

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00:46:13

An In Depth Look at Momentum Investing and Trend...

Excess Returns ·

2021/02/04

There is perhaps no investment factor with more long-term data to support it than momentum. But despite that, its real world usage lags far behind other factors like value. Part of the reason for this is the fact that momentum can be much less intuitive for investors. It is easy for investors to understand why they should buy a stock that trades at a discounted valuation, but it is much more difficult to understand why they should invest in a stock solely because its price has gone up. In this

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00:19:39

The Impact of Intangible Assets on Value Investing

Excess Returns ·

2021/01/31

Our economy is changing. Gone are the days where the biggest companies require substantial physical assets to operate and grow their businesses. Most of the companies that dominate our economy today rely on assets like technology, brand value, and patents to power their businesses. In this episode, we look at the impact of intangible assets on value investing and investment strategies that rely on fundamentals. We discuss the challenges of valuing intangible assets, and the different approaches that

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00:59:52

Interview: Replicating Private Equity Returns In...

Excess Returns ·

2021/01/28

There are many misconceptions about private equity. Most investors see it as a domain where high net worth investors and institutions earn returns that can't be achieved via public markets. Investors typically also view the success of private equity as the result of the ability of private equity firms to go in and make operational changes to businesses to unlock their true potential. But it turns out the reality is much less exciting than that. As is the case in public market investing, it turns out

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00:18:01

Examining the Arguments Against Value Investing

Excess Returns ·

2021/01/24

After a decade of struggle, the past six months have finally given value investors reasons for optimism. Although the recent outperformance pales in comparison to the underperformance over the course of the decade, the fact that performance has improved, coupled with the arguments that a move toward increased fiscal stimulus may lead to a higher inflationary environment that would benefit value, has many value investors, including us, thinking we may have finally reached the turning point. And

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00:18:38

Why Dividend Investing May Be Overrated

Excess Returns ·

2021/01/17

Dividend based investing strategies are very popular among investors. The ability to receive regular cash payments from the equities they own and a belief that dividend paying stocks outperform the market are both major drivers of this popularity. But this preference for dividend stocks often exceeds the reality of the benefits they provide. In this episode, we take a look at the facts behind dividend investing. We look at how dividend-paying stocks perform over time and why the source of their

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00:21:34

Breaking Down the Investment Strategy of Peter Lynch

Excess Returns ·

2021/01/10

Peter Lynch is one of the most successful mutual fund managers of all time. Lynch guided Fidelity Investment's Magellan Fund to a 29.2 percent average annual return from 1977 until his retirement in 1990, almost doubling the S&P 500's 15.8 percent yearly return over that time. And he did it with an approach that is very unique among history's most successful investors. In its paper Superstar Investors, AQR tried to use factors explain the historical performance of some of the best investors of

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00:11:55

The Importance of Expectations in Investing

Excess Returns ·

2021/01/03

There is a common misconception that a good company is always a good investment. But that sometimes isn't the case. The reason for that comes down to the role that expectations play in investing. Companies with good fundamentals typically have high expectations built into their stock price, while companies with poor fundamentals typically have low expectations embedded in their price. But either way, the key for investors is identifying companies where there is a gap between expectations and

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00:33:34

The Biggest Lessons From Our Five Most Popular...

Excess Returns ·

2020/12/27

When we started our podcast late last year, we were hoping we could create something that would be educational and informative for people who follow our content. We were hoping we could take some of the lessons we have learned in running quant models over the past decade and share them with other investors who are looking to learn and improve. But one of the biggest surprises for us in the first year of the podcast, though, is how much we have learned ourselves. We have been fortunate to interview

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00:22:34

Eight Timeless Lessons All Investors Can Learn From...

Excess Returns ·

2020/12/20

No investor can match the combination of Warren Buffett's annual returns and the period of time he has been able to sustain them. Buffett has generated those returns in a variety of ways, many of which your average investor could never copy. But Buffett's greatest contribution to the investing world likely isn't his returns or his approach to picking stocks. Buffett's greatest contribution has been his willingness to help all of us become better investors. Through his writings, his annual meetings,

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00:52:07

Making Sense of Fed Intervention, Fiscal Stimulus and...

Excess Returns ·

2020/12/17

The way economic policy is implemented has undergone some major changes in the past decade. The Federal Reserve's response to the Great Financial Crisis, and the continued quantitative easing in its aftermath, marked a significant change in the way the central bank implements monetary policy. And the fiscal policy response to the current crisis also marked a significant departure from how things have been done in the past. In this episode we are joined by one of our favorite economic thinkers,

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00:15:56

Twin Momentum: Combining Fundamental and Price...

Excess Returns ·

2020/12/13

The academic research supporting the momentum factor is very strong. But most of that research focuses on the momentum in a stock's price. An interesting research paper written by Dashan Huang looked at the potential to enhance the excess of return of price momentum by also looking at the momentum in a firm's fundamentals. In this episode we discuss this paper and the pros and cons of combining fundamental and price momentum. We also outline the seven variable system the paper uses to calculate

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00:18:20

Lessons From Our First Year of Podcasting

Excess Returns ·

2020/12/06

We have reached the one year anniversary of the podcast so we wanted to take a break from our regular investing episodes for a week and reflect back on our first year and what we have learned. In this episode we talk about our biggest lessons from our first year of podcasting and some of the behind the scenes details that go into creating the podcast. As we begin our second year, we also would welcome any feedback on things we can do to improve the podcast and the types of episodes that listeners

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