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PODCAST

Excess Returns

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

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All Episodes

00:19:29

Four Reasons Value Investing Might Not be Dead Yet

Excess Returns ·

2020/08/23

Value investors have fallen on difficult times in the most recent decade. Value's extended underperformance has led many to question whether the strategy still works or if it is broken in some fundamental way. In this episode, we look at these arguments and discuss why we still believe in value. We discuss: - Whether value is cheap on a relative and absolute basis - If the risk- and behavioral-based arguments for value still hold - Why history gives us some reason for optimism - Why underperfomance

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00:51:48

Interview: A Conversation about Buffett, Berkshire &...

Excess Returns ·

2020/08/16

In this episode, we are joined by Lawrence Cunningham. He is a professor at George Washington University and one of the world's leading experts on Warren Buffett. He is also the author of many excellent investing books including "Dear Shareholder", "The Essays of Warren Buffett", "Quality Investing", and the upcoming "Quality Shareholders: How the Best Managers Attract and Keep Them". We discuss a wide range of topics, including: - the key traits that have led to Warren Buffett's long-term

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00:21:07

Have the Fed, Narratives and Passive Flows Broken...

Excess Returns ·

2020/08/09

Valuing a company (or the market in general) typically involves looking at its price and judging that price relative to its current and projected future fundamentals. But some have argued that this process has become broken in the most recent decade and other factors have become more important than actual results. In this episode, we talk about some of these factors, how they have impacted the market, and what they might mean for the future. We discuss: - How Fed policy has impacted the market in

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00:18:53

Finding Diamonds in the Rough Among Growth Stocks

Excess Returns ·

2020/08/02

Buying expensive stocks has historically been a terrible investing strategy. On average, expensive stocks significantly underperform the market as a whole over time. But despite the poor performance of the group, the absolute best performing individual stocks typically come from within this universe. The difficult part is trying to identify them in advance. In this episode, we look at a quantitative growth strategy developed by Partha Mohanram, a professor at the University of Toronto, and how it

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00:17:54

The Danger of Learning From Your Mistakes

Excess Returns ·

2020/07/26

The process of learning from your mistakes is an important part of improving yourself over time both as an investor and as a person. But it requires that you learn the right lessons and don’t draw the wrong conclusions from your failures. And sometimes that is easier said than done. In this episode, we talk about some ways that learning from your mistakes can be counterproductive. We discuss: - Why a significant failure early in our careers led us to overcompensate later on - Why learning the right

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00:49:24

Active Value Investing in a Changing World with...

Excess Returns ·

2020/07/19

In this episode we are joined by Vitaliy Katsenelson. Vitaliy is the author of the popular Contrarian Edge blog and the CEO of investment firm IMA. As quantitative investors, we often find we learn the most from investors who use very different approaches than we do. As a discretionary value investor and long-term student of value investing, Vitaliy provides us with an alternate take on value and the advantages a discretionary approach can offer in uncertain times. We discuss: - How COVID-19 has

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00:16:27

Is the Price/Book Ratio Dead?

Excess Returns ·

2020/07/12

The Price/Book ratio has probably been the most important valuation ratio of the past century. If you look at the academic research that supports value investing, you won’t find any other ratio that is referenced more often. There is also no ratio that is used more by systematic value funds. But the rise on intangible assets and other factors have led many to question whether the ratio has value any more. In this episode, we look at the arguments for and against the Price/Book and whether it should

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00:16:51

Can Warren Buffett Be Quantified?

Excess Returns ·

2020/07/05

In this episode, we are going to try something a little different. Our goal at Validea is to capture quantitative strategies that work over the long-term. To do that, we go through books and academic papers to find factor-based models with results to back them up. We are going to periodically do some episodes for the podcast where we do a deep dive into these strategies and look at the factors behind them. In the first episode, we will take a detailed look at our strategy based on Warren Buffett,

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00:19:51

The Pros and Cons of Quantitative and Discretionary...

Excess Returns ·

2020/06/28

We all have a tendency to believe that the way we invest is the best way. As quantitative investors, we can sometimes feel that there is no reason anyone should ever use a discretionary strategy. But like most issues in investing, there are two sides to this argument. In this episode, we talk about the benefits of both quantitative and discretionary investing. We discuss: - Why quantitative strategies can limit the impact of emotion and biases - Why discretionary strategies can work better in

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01:09:51

Interview: Timeless Investing and Life Lessons with...

Excess Returns ·

2020/06/21

In this week's episode we are privileged to be joined by Jim O'Shaughnessy. Jim is a pioneer in quantitative investing and the founder of O'Shaughnessy Asset Management. He is also the author of the best selling book What Works on Wall Street, which is now on its 4th edition and is considered by many to be the definitive guide to factor-based investing. In this discussion, we get Jim's takes on a wide range of topics both in and outside the investing world. We discuss: - the recent struggles of

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00:15:34

The Danger of Focusing on What Should Be and Missing...

Excess Returns ·

2020/06/14

We all have our beliefs about the way that things should work in investing. When the market gets overvalued, we think it should go down. When value stocks struggle for a long period of time, we think they should outperform. When central banks or governments implement policies we don't agree with, we think they will inevitably end in disaster. But that focus on the way we think things should be can sometimes lead us to miss the reality of what is. In this episode, we talk about the balance between

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00:18:10

Quality and Low Volatility: The Factors That...

Excess Returns ·

2020/06/07

Investing factors that work over time typically do so for one of two reasons: they either produce an excess return by taking on additional risk or they benefit from the tendency of investors to systematically misprice certain types of securities. Factors like value and momentum are easy to explain using this framework, but the outperformance of quality and low volatility offers more of a challenge. In this episode, we take an in depth look at these two factors. We discuss: - the different ways to

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00:41:53

Interview: Systematic Value Investing with Wes Gray

Excess Returns ·

2020/05/31

Wes Gray is the founder of Alpha Architect, the author of Quantitative Value and Quantitative Momentum, and an expert in systematic investing. In this interview, we discuss the recent struggles of value investing and how the current period fits into a long-term context. We also talk about the nuts and bolts of building a value strategy, including the pros and cons of value composites and the role of quality in a value portfolio. We hope you enjoy the discussion. ABOUT ALPHA

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00:18:23

An In Depth Look at Momentum Investing

Excess Returns ·

2020/05/24

Momentum investing is difficult to understand for many investors. While a concept like value that involves trying to buy stocks at a discount to what they are worth resonates with many, the idea of betting that stocks that have already gone up will go up more can be much more difficult to understand. In this episode, we take an in depth look at momentum investing. We discuss why momentum works, the different types of momentum, and some of the drawbacks of a momentum based approach. We also talk

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00:16:24

The Pros and Cons of Factor Timing

Excess Returns ·

2020/05/17

We are all trained to buy low and sell high, and it is tempting to conclude that we can do the same thing with factors. But the research suggests that factor timing strategies are extremely difficult to implement in practice. In this episode, we discuss the pros and cons of factor timing and look at some of the approaches that investors can use to time factors. We discuss: - Why most investors should avoid attempting to time factors - The common factor timing approaches, including value, momentum,

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00:15:52

The Challenges of Multi-Factor Investing

Excess Returns ·

2020/05/10

The basic theory of multi-factor investing is pretty simple. It has been widely proven that factors like value and momentum can outperform the market over long periods of time. But no reward comes without risk. In this case, the risk is the significant periods of underperformance that the factors can endure. That is where multi-factor investing comes in. It offers investors an opportunity to blend factors together to reduce risk and smooth out those bad periods. But building a multi-factor

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00:14:12

The Impact of COVID-19 on Value Investing

Excess Returns ·

2020/05/03

The process of using past fundamentals to try to predict future prices has been in place for a very long time, and there is substantial academic evidence to support it. One of the major challenges of it; however, is what happens when we are confronted with breaking points that are so large that a company’s past results prior to it occurring might tell us very little about what it will look like after. The current situation with COVID-19 might be the most significant situation of this type that any

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00:36:15

Psychology and COVID-19 with Dr. Daniel Crosby

Excess Returns ·

2020/04/26

In this week's episode we shift gears a little from our usual investing focus. We wanted to spend some time talking about the current COVID-19 crisis and its impact on all of us as people. To do that, we brought in an expert of human psychology and behavioral finance, Dr. Daniel Crosby. Daniel is the author of the Behavioral Investor and the Chief Behavioral Officer at Brinker Capital. In the interview, we discuss what we are going through as a society with the COVID-19 crisis, how we can all learn

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00:15:50

The Limits to Lessons From Past Bear Markets

Excess Returns ·

2020/04/19

Whenever we are confronted with a bear market, we all want to figure out how it will play out. We want to know how big the decline will be. We want to know when it will end. We want to know what stocks we should buy to limit losses during it and to outperform the market after it. To answer these questions, our minds tend to point us to the simplest solution we can find. That solution is often to find the bear market in history that was most comparable to this one, and to assume that what happened

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00:12:37

The Dangers of Hindsight Bias

Excess Returns ·

2020/04/12

Whenever any of us analyze the decisions we make in investing, there is always a tendency to think that what we end up knowing in retrospect was obvious at the time. There is a tendency to believe that decisions that we could have made were easier than they actually were. But that’s just not the way things work, especially when we are faced with high stress situations and very uncertain outcomes, which is the situation we all face today. In this episode, we discuss the challenge of analyzing the

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