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LessWrong

Audio narrations of LessWrong posts.

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2:37

[Linkpost] “Superforecasting the Origins of the...

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2024/03/13

This is a linkpost for https://goodjudgment.substack.com/p/superforecasting-the-origins-of-theThe Good Judgement Project got some superforecasters to retrocast whether COVID started via zoonotic spillover or a lab leak. They in aggregate gave a 75% chance of zoonosis, but there was a range of views. GJP's executive summary is at the end of this linkpost.Here is a link to the summary of the report on their substack, and here is a link to the full report (which is a total of 6 pages of content).h/t

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8:26

“The Parable Of The Fallen Pendulum, Part 2” by...

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2024/03/13

Previously: Some physics 101 students calculate that a certain pendulum will have a period of approximately 3.6 seconds. Instead, when they run the experiment, the stand holding the pendulum tips over and the whole thing falls on the floor.The students, being diligent Bayesians, argue that this is strong evidence against Newtonian mechanics, and the professor's attempts to rationalize the results in hindsight are just that: rationalization in hindsight. What say the professor?“Hold on now,” the

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53:21

“OpenAI: The Board Expands” by Zvi

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2024/03/12

It is largely over.The investigation into events has concluded, finding no wrongdoing anywhere. The board has added four new board members, including Sam Altman. There will still be further additions. Sam Altman now appears firmly back in control of OpenAI. None of the new board members have been previously mentioned on this blog, or known to me at all. They are mysteries with respect to AI. As far as I can tell, all three lack technical understanding of AI and have no known

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19:37

[Linkpost] “Results from an Adversarial Collaboration...

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2024/03/12

This is a linkpost for https://forecastingresearch.org/s/AIcollaboration.pdfAuthors of linked report: Josh Rosenberg, Ezra Karger, Avital Morris, Molly Hickman, Rose Hadshar, Zachary Jacobs, Philip Tetlock[1]Today, the Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) released “Roots of Disagreement on AI Risk: Exploring the Potential and Pitfalls of Adversarial Collaboration,” which discusses the results of an adversarial collaboration focused on forecasting risks from AI.In this post, we provide a brief

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3:44

“‘Artificial General Intelligence’: an extremely...

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2024/03/11

(Crossposted from twitter for easier linking.) (Intended for a broad audience—experts already know all this.)When I talk about future “Artificial General Intelligence” (AGI), what am I talking about? Here's a handy diagram and FAQ:“But GPT-4 can’t do any of those things.” Indeed it cannot—hence the word “future”!“That will never happen because nobody wants AIs that are like that.” For one thing, imagine an AI where you can give it seed capital and ask it to go found a new company, and it does so,

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22:49

“Some (problematic) aesthetics of what constitutes...

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2024/03/11

(Not-terribly-informed rant, written in my free time.)Terminology note: When I say “an aesthetic”, I mean an intuitive (“I know it when I see it”) sense of what a completed paper, project, etc. is ideally “supposed” to look like. It can include both superficial things (the paper is properly formatted, the startup has high valuation, etc.), and non-superficial things (the theory is “elegant”, the company is “making an impact”, etc.). Part 1: The aesthetic of novelty / cleverness Example: my rant on

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3:26

“Twelve Lawsuits against OpenAI” by Remmelt

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2024/03/11

td;lr Cases I found against OpenAI. All are US-based. First seven focus on copyright. Coders 1. Joseph Saveri Firm: overview, complaintWriters 2. Joseph Saveri Firm: overview, complaint 3. Authors Guild & Alter: overview, complaint 4. Nicholas Gage: overview & complaintMedia 5. New York Times: overview, complaint 6. Intercept Media: overview, complaint 7. Raw Story & Alternet: overview, complaintPrivacy 8. Clarkson Firm: overview, complaint 9. Glancy Firm: overview,

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3:01

[Linkpost] “‘How could I have thought that faster?’”...

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2024/03/11

This is a linkpost for https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1445461146937413634I stumbled upon a Twitter thread where Eliezer describes what seems to be his cognitive algorithm that is equivalent to Tune Your Cognitive Strategies, and have decided to archive / repost it here.Sarah Constantin: I really liked this example of an introspective process, in this case about the "life problem" of scheduling dates and later canceling them: malcolmocean.com/2021/08/int… Eliezer Yudkowsky: See, if I'd

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0:35

“Simple versus Short: Higher-order degeneracy and...

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2024/03/11

This article contains more than 100 uses of logical or mathematical notation, so an audio narration would be too hard to follow. You'll find a link to the original text in the episode description. --- First published: March 11th, 2024 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nWRj6Ey8e5siAEXbK/simple-versus-short-higher-order-degeneracy-and-error-1 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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1:27

“One-shot strategy games?” by Raemon

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2024/03/11

I'm looking for computer games that involve strategy, resource management, hidden information, and management of "value of information" (i.e. figuring out when to explore or exploit), which: *can* be beaten in 30 – 120 minutes on your first try (or, there's a clear milestone that's about that long)but, it'd be pretty hard to do so unless you are trying really hard. Even if a pretty savvy gamer shouldn't be able to by default.This is for my broader project of "have a battery of exercises that

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35:39

“Understanding SAE Features with the Logit Lens” by...

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2024/03/11

This work was produced as part of the ML Alignment & Theory Scholars Program - Winter 2023-24 Cohort, with support from Neel Nanda and Arthur Conmy. Joseph Bloom is funded by the LTFF, Manifund Regranting Program, donors and LightSpeed Grants. This post makes extensive use of Neuronpedia, a platform for interpretability focusing on accelerating interpretability researchers working with SAEs.Links: SAEs on HuggingFace, Analysis Code Executive SummaryThis is an informal post sharing statistical

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11:07

“0th Person and 1st Person Logic” by Adele Lopez

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2024/03/11

Truth values in classical logic have more than one interpretation.In 0th Person Logic, the truth values are interpreted as True and False.In 1st Person Logic, the truth values are interpreted as Here and Absent relative to the current reasoner.Importantly, these are both useful modes of reasoning that can coexist in a logical embedded agent.This idea is so simple, and has brought me so much clarity that I cannot see how an adequate formal theory of anthropics could avoid it! Crash Course in

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16:35

[Linkpost] “Notes from a Prompt Factory” by Richard_Ngo

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2024/03/10

This is a linkpost for https://www.narrativeark.xyz/p/notes-from-a-prompt-factoryI am a spiteful man. But I am aware of it, which is more than most can say. These days people walk through the streets with resentment in their hearts that they don’t even know about. They sneer and jeer but wouldn’t recognize their own faces. I, at least, will not shy away from my reflection. Thus, while I lack many virtues, in this way I am their superior.In my job, too, I am superior. I oversee many AIs—dozens, or

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21:54

“Closeness To the Issue (Part 5 of ‘The Sense Of...

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2024/03/09

This is the fifth post in a sequence that demonstrates a complete naturalist study, specifically a study of query hugging (sort of), as described in The Nuts and Bolts of Naturalism. This one continues my demo of phases one and two: Locating Fulcrum Experiences and Getting Your Eyes On. For context on this sequence, see the intro post. Reminder that this is meant as reference material. Before throwing in the towel, I thought I might as well try talking things through with ChatGPT.Why? I think it was

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5:47

“Lies and disrespect from the EA Infrastructure Fund”...

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2024/03/08

TLDR I applied for funding from the EA Infrastructure Fund. They promised to give me their decision in a month, but they only kind of approved my application in 3 months. A month later they explained that they didn't actually approve my application, and I still have to wait for their final decision. It's almost 5 months since I applied, and I'm still waiting. During this time, my manager failed to meet 4 of his own deadlines, didn't answer me for many weeks, while expressing little accountability,

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4:14

“Scenario Forecasting Workshop: Materials and...

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2024/03/08

Crossposted from the AI Alignment Forum. May contain more technical jargon than usual.Disclaimer: While some participants and organizers of this exercise work in industry, no proprietary info was used to inform these scenarios, and they represent the views of their individual authors alone. OverviewIn the vein of What 2026 Looks Like and AI Timelines discussion, we recently hosted a scenario forecasting workshop. Participants first wrote a 5-stage scenario forecasting what will happen between now

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10:41

“Woods’ new preprint on object permanence” by Steven...

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2024/03/08

Quick poorly-researched post, probably only of interest to neuroscientists. The experimentJustin Wood at University of Indiana has, over many years with great effort, developed a system for raising baby chicks such that all the light hitting their retina is experimentally controlled right from when they’re an embryo—the chicks are incubated and hatched in darkness, then moved to a room with video screens, head-tracking and so on. For a much better description of how this works and how he got into

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95:10

“AI #54: Clauding Along” by Zvi

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2024/03/08

The big news this week was of course the release of Claude 3.0 Opus, likely in some ways the best available model right now. Anthropic now has a highly impressive model, impressive enough that it seems as if it breaks at least the spirit of their past commitments on how far they will push the frontier. We will learn more about its ultimate full capabilities over time.We also got quite the conversation about big questions of one's role in events, which I immortalized as Read the Roon. Since

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35:13

“MATS AI Safety Strategy Curriculum” by Ryan Kidd,...

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2024/03/08

As part of the MATS Winter 2023-24 Program, scholars were invited to take part in a series of weekly discussion groups on AI safety strategy. Each strategy discussion focused on a specific crux we deemed relevant to prioritizing AI safety interventions and was accompanied by a reading list and suggested discussion questions. The discussion groups were faciliated by several MATS alumni and other AI safety community members and generally ran for 1-1.5 h.As assessed by our alumni reviewers, scholars in

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5:18

[Linkpost] “Simple Kelly betting in prediction...

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2024/03/07

This is a linkpost for https://unstablerontology.substack.com/p/simple-kelley-betting-in-predictionKelly betting is a strategy for gambling, maximizing one's log(money) every round, by betting a fixed fraction of one's income. I will define Kelly betting a certain class of discrete prediction markets, give a simple Kelly betting rule for these prediction markets, and show it equivalent to the original Kelly formula in a two-outcome case. A prediction market consists of a finite set of outcomes O,

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