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PODCAST

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

Pushkin Industries

Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions. Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000

news politics

All Episodes

43:39

The Right (And Wrong) Ways to Fight Trump

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2025/04/24

This week, Nate and Maria talk about the Trump administration’s deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia without due process. The stakes are high–but immigration is a stronger issue for Trump in the court of public opinion than tariffs were. Picking a fight with Harvard may also be good politics for the administration. So: how should Democrats, and other anti-Trump forces, respond? Further Reading: What if There’s No Way to Stop Trump’s Approach to Power?from Ross Douthat at the

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26:13

China’s Race to Dominate: Listen to Global Tech Wars

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2025/04/22

Here’s a preview of a new audiobook, Global Tech Wars: China’s Race to Dominate. For decades, China’s economic rise has been symbolized by its unstoppable force of low-cost manufacturing. Now, it’s the leading country in cutting-edge industries like artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, surveillance technology, and more. In Global Tech Wars, Financial Times’ veteran journalist James Kynge analyzes China’s rapid technological ascent and what it means for the

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47:17

Will AI Radically Change the World by 2027?

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2025/04/17

This week, Nate and Maria discuss AI 2027, a new report from the AI Futures Project that lays out some pretty doom-y scenarios for our near-term AI future. They talk about how likely humans are to be misled by rogue AI, and whether current conflicts between the US and China will affect the way this all unfolds. Plus, Nate talks about the feedback he gave the AI 2027 writers after reading an early draft of their forecast, and reveals what he sees as the report’s central flaw. The AI Futures

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35:28

Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2025/04/10

Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s latest round of tariffs. What is the strategy here, if any? What should other decision-makers – like Elon Musk or the United States’ Congress – do to intervene? And how should the average American react? For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by

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43:29

The Ivy League Bows to Trump, Plus Protecting Your...

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2025/04/03

This week – after a quick check in on their March Madness brackets – Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s showdown with the Ivy League. Should schools like Harvard and Columbia do more to stand up to the President’s demands? Then they turn to 23andMe, which has declared bankruptcy. They discuss privacy and whether it’s okay to swap your biometric data for more convenience at the airport. Last but not least, they tackle the question of how to properly value your time. Further

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41:26

Group Chat Protocols, Bracket Updates, and thoughts...

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2025/03/27

This week, Nate and Maria discuss The Atlantic’s bombshell report about how its top editor was added to a national security group chat, and get into why the most major security risk is never technology–it’s always people. Then, they give an update on their March Madness bracket contest, and try to figure out why on earth players have to wait until they’re 22 to join the WNBA. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver

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42:03

March Madness Bracket Extravaganza

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2025/03/19

This week, Nate and Maria talk college basketball. Nate explains how he made his recently-released March Madness model. Then, they compare their tournament brackets. Maria gets some help from Sacramento Kings GM Monte McNair, but also makes one bracket entirely based on vibes. Nate mostly sticks to his model, but makes a few surprising picks. Check out Maria’s brackets here. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate

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39:20

China’s Best Moves, and How to React to a Dealer’s...

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2025/03/13

Last week, Nate and Maria talked about the game theory of American diplomacy right now. This week, they look at it from the perspective of America’s biggest rival: China. How should China respond as the US turns away from the global stage? What new opportunities do they have? Plus, both hosts weigh in on the poker controversy surrounding a recent big win… that was actually a loss. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin

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40:19

How Trump is Getting the Game Theory Wrong

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2025/03/06

This week, Nate and Maria discuss Trump’s tariffs and analyze his strategy from a game theory perspective. They get into the difference between zero-sum and cooperative games, speculate on how Trump would act in the dictator game, and discuss the rationality of revenge. Then, they talk about the reboot of the infamous Fyre Festival, and why con artists so rarely reform. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate

en-US

43:28

Thinking Smart About Low-Probability Events

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2025/02/27

This week, Nate and Maria discuss the asteroid that had a 3% chance of colliding with Earth. That risk is now closer to 0%—but, what does this example reveal about how to consider extremely costly events that are fairly unlikely to come to pass? Then, they touch on the latest World Series of Poker drama and challenge each other to a game of Roshambo. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee

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42:20

Trust and Facing the Unknown (with Rachel Botsman)

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2025/02/20

This week, Maria speaks with trust expert Rachel Botsman about her new audiobook How To Trust and Be Trusted. What is trust? Why, even in the face of overwhelming evidence, do we sometimes trust the wrong people? And what can a luxury hotel teach us about how to repair a trust that’s been broken? And – for Pushkin+ subscribers – Nate and Maria answer a listener question about learning to feel the difference between probabilities. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their

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41:10

Trump’s First Three Weeks: What Actually Matters?

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2025/02/13

Amid a maelstrom of executive orders and other presidential actions, Nate and Maria discuss best practices for staying focused on the important things. They also give their takes on what those important things are. And, they follow up on their Super Bowl prop bet – were there tears during the National Anthem? (They disagree – weigh in below.) Plus, Nate updates us on his housing search, and Pushkin+ subscribers get advice about how to pick a doctor. For more from Nate and Maria,

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43:34

Air Travel, Alcohol, and How to Bet On a Coin Toss

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2025/02/06

Our intuitive risk assessments can be way off–we’re too scared of hijackings, and not scared enough of crossing the street. This week, Nate and Maria discuss the real risks of plane travel, and of drinking alcohol. Then, they debate whether the sharp money is on heads or tails in the Super Bowl coin toss, and make a very serious bet about whether the national anthem will move any players or coaches to tears. Plus, Nate and Maria answer a listener question about the value of betting on

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46:51

Should You Learn Poker from ChatGPT? And Other AI...

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2025/01/30

In the wake of DeepSeek’s explosive entrance into the AI chatbot world, Nate and Maria talk AI strategy. At the national level and the personal level, what benefits does this technology actually have – and is it worth it? Plus, we tackle a question from listener Hugh about how to win big at his friendly, amateur poker night. Good luck, Hugh! For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee

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48:26

Trump’s Strategy: Distraction and Executive Action

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2025/01/23

What do the decisions Trump has made so far tell us about his strategy for his second term? And what strategic options do the Democrats have? Nate and Maria talk birthright citizenship, tech CEOs, memecoins, and pardons.And, Nate and Maria answer a listener question about the status of their driver’s licenses. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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47:44

Wildfires, Insurance, and Planning for Disaster

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2025/01/16

Nate and Maria discuss the California wildfires. How do incentives in insurance markets drive decisions by homeowners – and by insurers? What’s the best way to make rational decisions about the disaster risks we all face?And they discuss a question from listener JM who asks what happens when the River and the Village mix it up in Washington? Further Reading: Colm Toíbin on the loss of Gary Indiana’s personal libraryin the Palisades fire An overview of California’s

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40:10

Nate and Maria’s 2025 Predictions

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2025/01/09

Nate and Maria share their predictions for the year to come, covering everything from the price of Bitcoin, to the fate of President Trump’s cabinet picks, to whether Nate will wear skinny jeans. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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45:16

Learning From Failure, Avoiding Regret, and Managing...

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2025/01/02

Maria talks to her friend Henry Rich about how he’s managed to find success in one of the world’s riskiest industries: restaurants. Themes include learning from failure, accounting for ruin, and finding meaning at work. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate SilverSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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41:17

Luigi Mangione, the Rise of Bluesky, and High-Stakes...

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2024/12/19

Nate and Maria talk about what Luigi Mangione can show us about the danger of black and white thinking, and how platforms like Bluesky and X create bubbles that make matters worse. Then, with the reigning world chess champion dethroned after a surprising choke, they discuss how they deal with high-stakes situations. Risky Business will be off next week. We’ll be back with a new episode on 1/2/25. Happy New Year! For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria

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40:19

The Riskies: The Best, Worst, and Most Interesting...

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2024/12/12

What were the best, worst, and most interesting decisions of 2024, and what can we learn from them? Nate and Maria award the year’s most notable decisions in our first annual Riskies awards show. Also: degen of the year, nit of the year, and the cognitive bias that best explains 2024. Then, they give a quick poker update and answer a listener’s question about the expected value of learning multiple languages. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from

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95 results

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