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The Investors" Corner

Cedar Grove Capital"s quick equity takes and business interviews. cedargrovecapital.substack.com

business investing

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🚗 Americans Keeping Their Cars for Longer

The Investors" Corner ·

2022/02/23

I remember when I was a kid, my dad would be the family mechanic and help tune and maintain our family cars. They weren’t anything extravagant but just the average family Toyota Camry and Nissan Altima that we held on to for over a decade. I’d always go with him to AutoZone to pick up parts to fix our cars and help out in any way I could, holding a flashlight or grabbing a tool mainly.This was traditional in our family, and I’m sure others as well, and it really got me asking myself, “I wonder if

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3:22

Recession Indicator Starting to Flash

The Investors" Corner ·

2022/02/16

* The term yield curve refers to the relationship between the short- and long-term interest rates of fixed-income securities issued by the U.S. Treasury. * An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates.* The U.S. curve has inverted before each recession since 1955, with a recession following between six and 24 months later, according to a 2018 report. It offered a false signal just once in that time.* The yield curve has been flattening over the last few months

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30:38

Sweetgreen: Serving Green But Bleeding Red

The Investors" Corner ·

2022/02/11

Summary* Once a VC darling, this “tech” oriented restaurant chain is anything but* The company is not differentiated and some aspects of its business expose it to more risks than others* Higher inflation and lack of pricing power will continue to eat into the company’s margins* Widening losses and no path to profitability should make investors wary of where the company’s priorities are* Compared to other restaurant brands out there, that are profitable, valuation metrics show just how overvalued

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28:44

Amazon Buying Peloton? Here's The Case For Both Sides

The Investors" Corner ·

2022/02/07

Rumor Has It…Friday sparked renewed interest in Peloton $PTON after rumors leaked that Amazon $AMZN might be interested in acquiring the company. News of this sent the stock up as much as ~38% before settling down to $31.10, a ~26% increase from Friday’s close.I decided to take to Twitter to share my opinion on the matter which set off a very healthy debate on the cases for and against this deal actually happening. My Tweet, and sequential thread, garnered >63,000 views and many valid points on

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26:44

No Pain, No Gain. XPOF Going Higher

The Investors" Corner ·

2022/02/01

Summary* Company hurt during COVID has executed well on a post-pandemic comeback and has almost returned to full pre-COVID levels* Broader tailwinds fueling a return to in-person workouts and the desire to try new fitness concepts* Management executing well on diversifying revenue channels, improving margins, and growing internationally* The stock is currently trading at 18.4x FY’22 earnings, a discount compared to the broader S&P index, consumer discretionary index, and other fitness namesBusiness

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3:36

How Much is Each "Subscriber" Worth?

The Investors" Corner ·

2022/01/28

Enterprise Value per Subscriber* With high growth startups taking a beating over the last year, premiums investors have put on valuations for subscriber growth have shown their cracks* High flyers like Rent the Runway $RENT , Hims $HIMS , and Bark $BARK , saw their EV “dollar amount” per subscriber crater 85%, 89%, and 90% respectively since they went public* Seeing the difference between these two dates shows just how euphoric the market was during peak COVID* When looking at other subscription

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16:20

RH: Too Cheap to Ignore at These Levels

The Investors" Corner ·

2022/01/25

Good morning everyone 👋🏼!Welcome to Cedar Grove Capital — your source for actionable insights, industry deep-dives, and single name coverage in the consumer(tech), and cannabis industries. If you are new, you can join below. Please hit the heart button if you like today’s newsletter and reply with any feedback.ForewordThe start of 2022 has not been kind to many of us. With a complete sell-off in technology names and fear of more FED rate hikes than expected, investors have no clue where to go from

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15:59

Fitness in a Post COVID World

The Investors" Corner ·

2022/01/20

Good morning everyone 👋🏼!Happy Thursday! If you’re reading this but haven’t subscribed, join our community of edgy investors interested in learning more about the markets and receiving recommendations on single-name stocks in the consumer, cannabis, and tech industries. Subscribe 👇🏼, it’s free!For this week’s post, I wanted to do an Industry Deep Dive [IDD] of the fitness industry and how it not only has but will continue to drastically change in a post-pandemic world. I’ll go over what it was,

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1:54

2021 IPOs Are Selling Off

The Investors" Corner ·

2022/01/18

Good morning everyone 👋🏼!Happy Tuesday! If you’re reading this but haven’t subscribed, join our community of edgy investors interested in learning more about the markets and receiving recommendations on single-name stocks in the consumer, cannabis, and tech industries. Subscribe 👇🏼, it’s free!* Nearly 400 traditional IPOs, along with an additional 600 special-purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), occurred in 2021, representing ~$316 billion in deal value* Two-thirds of the companies that went

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7:41

Volatility the New Normal?

The Investors" Corner ·

2022/01/03

Volatility the New Normal* Looking at intraday percent moves of +/-1% for the S&P 500, 2020 and 2021 combined have almost more swings than 2016→2019 combined (243 vs. 272).* 2020 saw 62% of its number of trading days experiencing this +/-1% intraday price swings compared to 34% for 2021.* Access to commission-free trading, more cash during COVID, and leniency of ability to borrow on margin have allowed investors to move in and out of stocks more frequently.* Since the beginning of 2020 (2020 and

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