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PODCAST

Telltales

An investing podcast + substack for people who want to compound their wealth over the long run and don"t mind sailing analogies telltales.substack.com

business investing

All Episodes

33:25

Navigating the Shifting Tides of Energy, Media, and...

Telltales ·

2025/02/13

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the potential impacts of the Trump administration on energy markets, media consumption, and the healthcare industry. They analyze key exhibits, dive into company-specific news, and share insights on the shifting landscape of these sectors.[00:00:33] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand Hunt expects Iran's oil production to decrease under the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" policy. He also discusses the challenges in reaching a deal

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30:13

Vertex's Breakthrough Pain Drug Approval and the...

Telltales ·

2025/02/06

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, Hunt and Jason discuss the implications of a potential second Trump term on the energy sector, Elon Musk's efforts to reduce federal spending, and the recent approval of Vertex's non-opioid pain drug. They also delve into the latest earnings reports from major tech companies and the advancements in autonomous driving technology.[00:00:46] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt anticipates that Trump's policies, including sanctions on Iran and Russia, could tighten the

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34:37

DeepSeek's AI Breakthrough: Efficiency, Innovation,...

Telltales ·

2025/01/30

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the potential impacts of the Trump administration's energy policies, the game-changing AI innovations from China's DeepSeek, and key updates from healthcare companies like Vertex, Lantheus, and BioNTech.[00:00:52] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt believes a deal with Iran under the Trump administration could tighten the oil market surplus. He expects OPEC countries to increase production, potentially leading to lower oil prices and a

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33:03

Cashflow Pick’em 2025 Part 2 - Pages 14-20 (e2504)

Telltales ·

2025/01/23

SHOWNOTESIn this special edition of the Telltales podcast, the team continues "Cashflow Pick'em" from week 2502, selecting companies on memo pages 14-20 that they believe will grow their cashflow the most in the coming year. They also discuss the impact of Trump's first days in office on various industries and the competitive landscape in artificial intelligence.[00:01:02] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt expects Russian and Iranian oil production to decrease in the coming months due to

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35:55

From Energy Markets to AI Innovations: Where Are We...

Telltales ·

2025/01/16

SHOWNOTES[00:00:50] World Oil Supply and DemandHunt shares insights on Russia’s oil production outlook amid sanctions.Potential impact of geopolitical developments on global oil prices.Why WTI prices might swing between the mid-50s to high-70s.[00:03:03] US Gas Demand/SupplyOverview of cold-weather impacts and freeze-offs on natural gas production.Discussion on LNG export growth.[00:04:07] Macro UpdateGovernment spending, potential trillion-dollar cuts, and debt-limit strategies.How a lower U.S

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37:04

Cashflow Pick’em 2025 Part 1 - Pages 1-13 (e2502)

Telltales ·

2025/01/09

SHOWNOTES[00:00:00]Introduction (Pages 1–13)Mike, Jason, and Hunt open the show by outlining their plan to assess which companies covered in the memo are poised for the highest percentage increase in free cashflow by 2025. They highlight that overall cashflow growth—not just revenue—drives long-term valuations, and they set up the structure for this year’s “Cashflow Pick’em” challenge.[00:00:48]Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand Hunt reviews the current oil market landscape, pointing out that cold

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27:23

10ish Surprises for 2025: Predictions That Could...

Telltales ·

2024/12/31

SHOWNOTESEpisode OverviewIn this special edition of the Cash Flow Memo, hosts Mike, Jason, and Hunt look back on their “12 Surprises” from last year—unconventional predictions with high potential impact—and discuss which came true and which missed the mark. Then they unveil fresh predictions for 2025, ranging from nuclear fusion milestones and AI-driven health breakthroughs to geopolitical events and government spending cuts.Revisiting the 12 Surprises of Last Year[00:01:01] 1. Saudi Arabia Shifts

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29:39

2024 Cashflow Pick'em Results: Who Picked the...

Telltales ·

2024/12/24

Welcome to our 2024 Cashflow Pick'em Results Epsode, where Hunt, Mike, and Jason recap the cashflow growth in each company in the memo. Download the memo at Telltales.us and check out episode 2401 where we made our initial picks, here: 2024 Cashflow Pick'emToday we will explore who came out on top in free cash flow growth and examine the forces shaping energy, technology, and healthcare in 2024.[00:01:03] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt expects Iranian oil exports to decline in early 2025

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36:27

From Uber to Tesla: Navigating the Next Wave of...

Telltales ·

2024/12/19

REQUEST!!This week on the Oakcliff segment, Dawn discussed the awesome accomplishments of Oakcliff Sailing this year. She suggests 3 ways you can support Oakcliff in 2025, they are… Join and/or host the Oakcliff Winter Tour - This is a two session event gathering our graduates and collaborators to entertain and educate in an effort to set up American Sailing for success into 2028 and beyond. Click here for more info.Train at Oakcliff in ‘25 - If you are into sailing haven’t yet trained at Oakcliff,

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31:58

Scaling AI: Elon Musk's 100,000 GPU Cluster and the...

Telltales ·

2024/12/11

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the implications of Elon Musk's massive AI training cluster on the semiconductor industry, the future of self-driving cars, and the shifting landscape of chip manufacturing. They also explore the potential impact of Trump's FDA pick on healthcare costs and the U.S. budget.[00:06:27] Limits to GPU Scaling (Page 1) Jason and Mike discuss the limitations of scaling GPU clusters for AI training, with Elon Musk's plans to expand Tesla's cluster from

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34:54

Navigating the Challenges of AI Hallucination and...

Telltales ·

2024/12/04

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the challenges surrounding AI hallucination, the potential for healthcare reform under a new administration, and the outlook for the energy sector. They explore the legal and ethical implications of generative AI models, examine potential solutions to tackle healthcare costs, and analyze the effects of geopolitics and policy changes on oil and natural gas.[00:01:01] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt expects Iranian oil exports to

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31:00

Tech Titans' AI Strategies: Delays, Investments, and...

Telltales ·

2024/11/28

Download the memo at www.telltales.usSHOWNOTESJoin Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence on Telltales as they delve into the latest financial insights across the energy, technology, and healthcare sectors. This episode covers topics from global oil supply dynamics to the AI strategies of tech giants like NVIDIA and Apple.[00:00:34] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Exhibit C) Hunt discusses the current status of the global oil supply and demand, noting uncertainty regarding Iranian

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35:47

Trump's 2nd Term, Part 2: Analyzing Big Tech, Chips,...

Telltales ·

2024/11/21

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team continues last week’s discussion on the potential impact of Donald Trump's election victory on pages 1-7 of the memo. They also delve into company-specific news and developments, such as Netflix's live streaming challenges and the future of the semiconductor industry.[00:00:49] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND Hunt discusses the potential impact of a Trump administration on the global oil market, particularly in relation to Iran's production and

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32:37

Trump's 2nd Term: Analyzing Retail, Energy, Banks,...

Telltales ·

2024/11/13

In this episode, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence analyze market impacts of the developing Trump administration across various sectors.⏱️ Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:30 - Intro00:00:44 - World Oil Supply/Demand Analysis03:42 - US Gas Demand/Supply Overview04:40 - US Government Revenues and Expenses05:30 - UBER/DASH/ABNB/FIVE/HROW Analysis06:33 - Healthcare Sector (UNH/CVS/REGN/LLY)09:39 - Mining & Energy (FCX/ALB/CF/NEE)13:06 - Restaurant & Hospitality Stocks14:11 - Food

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33:54

Trump Wins 2024 Election - Implications for Energy,...

Telltales ·

2024/11/06

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team discusses the implications of Donald Trump's 2024 election victory on healthcare, energy, and technology. They analyze key exhibits and dive into company-specific news and developments.[00:00:57] Exhibit C: WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Page 1) Hunt expects a Trump administration deal with China to tighten the oil market surplus in 2025 by phasing out Iranian barrels. Despite predictions of peak oil demand, the IEA still forecasts an increase in 2025 versus

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32:16

Netflix vs. YouTube vs. Spotify: The Battle for...

Telltales ·

2024/10/30

SHOWNOTES[00:00:00] Introduction[00:00:57] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/DemandHunt discusses Israel's recent actions and their impact on oil facilities.Analysis of OPEC's plan to increase oil supply by one million barrels per day starting December.Suggestion to monitor oil company stocks for potential investment opportunities.[00:02:47] Exhibit B: U.S. Gas Demand/SupplyExamination of gas demand growth and LNG exports.Discussion on renewable energy's impact on gas demand for power

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34:00

AI Agents: Exploring how Apple, Microsoft, Amazon,...

Telltales ·

2024/10/23

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team dives into the latest developments in AI, analyzing the competitive landscape and opportunities for major tech companies. They also discuss Spotify's business model and moat, and examine the unsustainable U.S. deficit and its potential economic ramifications.[00:34] WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Exhibit C) Hunt provides an update on the oil market, noting that while the prospect of Israeli missiles directed at Iranian export facilities has supported prices,

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34:03

Tesla's Turbulence: RoboTaxi Unveiled; AlphaFold's...

Telltales ·

2024/10/17

Show NotesIn this episode of Telltales, hosts Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence delve into the latest developments in energy, technology, and healthcare. Join them as they discuss the implications of Tesla's recent announcements, the groundbreaking Nobel Prize win by Google's DeepMind team, and the current state of global oil and gas markets.[00:52] WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Exhibit C)[05:27] US GAS DEMAND / SUPPLY (Exhibit B)[09:03] US GOV'T REVENUES AND EXPENSES (Exhibit A)[09:35]

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33:30

Microsoft vs The AI Wave: Will Redmond Weather the...

Telltales ·

2024/10/09

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, the Telltales team dives deep into analyzing Microsoft's competitive position and cash flow drivers as the computing world stands on the cusp of an artificial intelligence revolution. Will Microsoft's key profit engines in Office and Windows withstand the AI wave or will the tech giant face disruption?[00:01] Energy & Macro Overview (Exhibits A, B, C) Hunt notes the reduction in oil surplus capacity and the recent uptick in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions between

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34:23

Meta's Magnificent Risks: Battling Apple in the Age...

Telltales ·

2024/10/02

In this episode, the Telltales team dives into the risks facing Meta (formerly Facebook, META 0.00%↑ ) as it navigates a shifting social media landscape and invests heavily in AI and the metaverse. They also discuss the latest healthcare news, including breakthroughs in treating diabetes and sickle cell disease.For earlier episodes in this series, check out:Apple's Underwhelming Reveal: A Sign of Shifting Tides? (e2437)Alphabet's Achilles Heel: Is Google the Next Kodak? (e2438)Examining Amazon's AI

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239 results

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