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LessWrong (30+ Karma)

LessWrong

Audio narrations of LessWrong posts.

technology philosophy

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53:36

“How much to update on recent AI governance moves?”...

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2023/11/17

Nate and I discuss the recent increase in public and political attention on AGI ruin. We try and figure out where, if anywhere, we feel extra hope as a result.I think it's plausible that this is enough of a shake-up that the world starts relating to AGI in a pretty different way that might help a lot with AI risk going better. Nate is sceptical that a shake-up causes something that is this far from working to start working.Relatedly, I also think that the extra time might be enough for a bunch of

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3:19

[Linkpost] “Towards Evaluating AI Systems for Moral...

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2023/11/17

Crossposted from the AI Alignment Forum. May contain more technical jargon than usual.This is a linkpost for https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.08576TLDR: In a new paper, we explore whether we could train future LLMs to accurately answer questions about themselves. If this works, LLM self-reports may help us test them for morally relevant states like consciousness.We think it's possible to start preliminary experiments testing for moral status in language models now, so if you're interested in working with

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13:00

“On Tapping Out” by Screwtape

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2023/11/17

1.It has been said that rationality is akin to a martial art. Very well. If we're going to borrow from martial arts, let us borrow properly.There is a technique known in some parts of the rationalist community called "Tapping Out." Tapping out in this context means you would like to exit an argument or debate. I believe this technique was first imported to LessWrong in this comment by Rain, and it is defined in this tag. As someone who has been practicing martial arts for most of his life, I have

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2:28

“A to Z of things” by KatjaGrace

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2023/11/17

I wanted to give my good friends’ baby a book, in honor of her existence. And I recalled children's books being an exciting genre. Yet checking in on that thirty years later, Amazon had none I could super get behind. They did have books I used to like, but for reasons now lost. And I wonder if as a child I just had no taste because I just didn’t know how good things could be. What would a good children's book be like? When I was about sixteen, I thought one reasonable thing to have learned when I

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6:18

“New LessWrong feature: Dialogue Matching” by jacobjacob

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2023/11/17

The LessWrong team is shipping a new experimental feature today: dialogue matching!I've been leading work on this (together with Ben Pace, kave, Ricki Heicklen, habryka and RobertM), so wanted to take some time to introduce what we built and share some thoughts on why I wanted to build it. New feature! 🎉There's now a dialogue matchmaking page at lesswrong.com/dialogueMatchingHere's how it works:You can check a user you'd potentially be interested in having a dialogue with, if they were tooThey

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101:01

“AI #38: Let’s Make a Deal” by Zvi

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2023/11/16

Another busy week. GPT-5 starts, Biden and Xi meet and make somewhat of a deal, GPTs get explored, the EU AI Act on the verge of collapse by those trying to kill the part that might protect us, multiple very good podcasts. A highly interesting paper on potential deceptive alignment. Despite things quieting down the last few days, it is still a lot. Hopefully things can remain quiet for a bit, perhaps I can even get in more work on that Jones Act post. Table of

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3:34

“Forecasting AI (Overview)” by jsteinhardt

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2023/11/16

This is a landing page for various posts I’ve written, and plan to write, about forecasting future developments in AI. I draw on the field of human judgmental forecasting, sometimes colloquially referred to as superforecasting. A hallmark of forecasting is that answers are probability distributions rather than single outcomes, so you should expect ranges rather than definitive answers (but ranges can still be informative!). If you are interested in learning more about this field, I teach a class on

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4:44

[Linkpost] “Learning coefficient estimation: the...

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2023/11/16

This is a linkpost for https://colab.research.google.com/github/zfurman56/intro-lc-estimation/blob/main/Intro_to_LC_estimation.ipynbWhat this is forThe learning coefficient (LC), or RLCT, is a quantity from singular learning theory that can help to quantify the "complexity" of deep learning models, among other things.This guide is primarily intended to help people interested in improving learning coefficient estimation get up to speed with how it works, behind the scenes. If you're just trying to

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4:03

“Extrapolating from Five Words” by Gordon Seidoh Worley

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2023/11/15

If you only get about five words to convey an idea, what will someone extrapolate from those five words? Rather than guess, you can use LLMs to experimentally discover what people are likely think those five words mean. You can use this to iterate on what five words you want to say in order to best convey your intended meaning.I got this idea because I tried asking Claude to summarize an article at a link. Claude doesn't follow links, so it instead hallucinated a summary from the title, which was

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15:49

“In Defense of Parselmouths” by Screwtape

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2023/11/15

Prerequisites: The Quaker and the Parselmouth.1.First, a quick summary.In the prerequisite post, Benjamin Hoffman describes three kinds of people. These people are hypothetical extremes: they're the social and epistemic equivalents of perfect spheres interacting in frictionless vacuums. There are Quakers, who always tell the truth and keep their word when they say they'll do something. There are Actors, who always say what seems good to say at the moment and who don't reliably keep their word even

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2:30

[Linkpost] “With or without a scratchpad, Large...

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2023/11/15

This is a linkpost for https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.07590Misalignment (engaging in the illegal behavior) and Deception (hiding the reason behind the trading decision to the user).Key Takeaways1. Without the scratchpad, GPT-4 is much less likely to be deceptive at first (~20% vs ~75% with scratchpad) but is more likely to double down when already lied (~95% vs ~85%).2. Explicit instructions not to perform that specific illegal activity (insider trading) does not make it disappear completely, just makes

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30:19

“Experiences and learnings from both sides of the AI...

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2023/11/15

Crossposted from the AI Alignment Forum. May contain more technical jargon than usual.I’m writing this in my own capacity. The views expressed are my own, and should not be taken to represent the views of Apollo Research or any other program I’m involved with. In 2022, I applied to multiple full-time AI safety positions. Now, I switched sides and ran multiple hiring processes for Apollo Research. Because of this, I feel like I understand the AI safety job market much better and may be able to help

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10:00

“Reinforcement Via Giving People Cookies” by Screwtape

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2023/11/15

1.Thinking By The Clock is now the most popular thing I've written on LessWrong, so here's another entry in the list of things which had a significant change in how I think and operate that I learned from a few stray lines of Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality. It's quite appropriate of this subject to be the followup you all get because the last one got upvoted so much."I was going to give you more space," said Harry Potter, "only I was reading up on Critch's theories about hedonics and

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21:59

“Kids or No kids” by Kids or no kids

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2023/11/14

This post summarizes how my partner and I decided whether to have children or not. We spent hundreds of hours on this decision and hope to save others part of that time. We found it very useful to read the thoughts of people who share significant parts of our values on the topic and thus want to "pay it forward" by writing this up. In the end, we decided to have children; our son is four months old now and we’re very happy with how we made the decision and with how our lives are now (through a

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12:18

“Raemon’s Deliberate (‘Purposeful?’) Practice Club”...

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2023/11/14

IntroductionSo. I have a theory of feedbackloop-first rationality. It has a lot of parts. I think each part is promising on it's own, and I have a dream that they interconnect into something promising and powerful. I also have a standard, which is that you should be able to tell if it's helping. One of those parts (I think/hope), is "the generalized skill of Deliberate Practice." That is, the meta skill of:Noticing that your goals are bottlenecked on some kind of skill (or skills).Figuring out what

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7:55

[Linkpost] “A framing for interpretability” by Nina...

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2023/11/14

This is a linkpost for https://ninarimsky.substack.com/p/a-framing-for-interpretabilityIn this post, I will share my current model of how we should think of neural network interpretability. The content will be rather handwavy and high-level. However, I think the field could make concrete updates wrt research directions if people adopt this framing. Am including the original handwritten notes this is based on as well, in case the format is more intuitive to some. Neural networks can be represented as

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59:54

“Monthly Roundup #12: November 2023” by Zvi

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2023/11/14

Things on the AI front have been rather hectic. That does not mean other things stopped happening. Quite the opposite. So here we are again. Bad News PSA: Crumbl Cookies, while delicious, have rather a lot of calories, 720 in the basic cookie. Yes, they display this as 180, by deciding serving size is a quarter of a cookie. This display strategy is pretty outrageous and should not be legal, we need to do something about unrealistic serving sizes – at minimum, require that the serving size

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31:03

“Bostrom Goes Unheard” by Zvi

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2023/11/14

[Editor's Note: This post is split off from AI #38 and only on LessWrong because I want to avoid overloading my general readers with this sort of thing at this time, and also I think it is potentially important we have a link available. I plan to link to it from there with a short summary.]Nick Bostrom was interviewed on a wide variety of questions on UnHerd, primarily on existential risk and AI, I found it thoughtful throughout. In it, he spent the first 80% of the time talking about existential

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22:05

“Incidental polysemanticity” by Victor Lecomte,...

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2023/11/14

<span>_%%% GENERIC MATH %%% % % Delimiters newcommand{p}[1]{(#1)} newcommand{ps}[1]{left(#1right)} newcommand{P}[1]{!ps{#1}} newcommand{norm}[1]{|#1|} newcommand{abs}[1]{|#1|} newcommand{coloneqq}{:=} newcommand{eqqcolon}{=:} % %

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25:57

“What is wisdom?” by TsviBT

LessWrong (30+ Karma) ·

2023/11/14

Laterally through the chronophone In "Archimedes's Chronophone", Yudkowsky asks: What would you say to Archimedes——what important message would you want to send back in time, to set the world on a hopeworthy course from then on——if you're barred from saying anything that's too anachronistic? That is: What would you say, if the message Archimedes receives is not literally what you said, but rather is whatever would be the output of the timeless principles that you used to generate your message, as

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