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PODCAST

The John Johnston Lounge

Welcome to The John Johnston Lounge (formerly The Art of Value), where Tech, Business, & Culture collide. Join host John Johnston (JJ) for daily breakdowns of the planet"s most powerful tech billionaires. We critique the psychology, strategies, and politics of titans like Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, Jeff Bezos, Sam Altman, and Mark Zuckerberg. We also analyze related cultural commentary from top podcast voices like Joe Rogan and Tim Dillon. From the AI bubble to the "Rogansphere," expect critical

technology

All Episodes

00:17:06

How Howard Marks Predicts Each Stock Market Crash &...

The John Johnston Lounge ·

2023/08/02

JJ discusses the latest Memo from legendary value investor Howard Marks, Taking the Temperature, in which Marks explains his strategy of taking the temperature of the stock market at any given time. Marks has made only 5 stock market calls since 2000, and got them right. He thinks we can do it too. Timestamps: 00:00 Howard Marks, Taking the Temperature intro 01:15 Jan 2000 : Calling the Dotcom Bubble bust 03:40 2004-2007: A slow developing train wreck 05:26 2008: Subprime and the Global Financial

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00:08:23

What Mohnish Pabrai Said About Investor Li Lu

The John Johnston Lounge ·

2023/07/28

I summarize and discuss what investor Mohnish Pabrai has said in recent Q&A interviews about his friend and colleague, legendary investor Li Lu. Timestamps: 00:00 Mohnish Pabrai on Li Lu Intro 00:20 Why Charlie Munger gave Li Lu $80 million to invest 00:55 How Li Lu became a great investor 03:11 Looking for investing anomalies 04:39 How Mohnish Pabrai got to know Li Lu 05:17 An missed opportunity from Li Lu 06:00 A captured opportunity from Li Lu: Moutai Related content: Investor Li Lu Buying

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00:06:33

Big Short Investor Steve Eisman Predicts Stock Market...

The John Johnston Lounge ·

2023/07/27

I summarize and respond to what famous "Big Short" investor Steve Eisman is currently predicting for US the stock market. Eisman was recently interviewed by CNBC about the recent US stock market melt-up, and the current economic environment. Timestamps: 00:00 "Big Short" investor Steven Eisman intro 00:23 Most anticipated recession and the market melt-up 01:32 Time to take profits or hold? 02:24 Do higher rates matter? 02:37 "Growth stocks" vs ""Value

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00:13:52

Mohnish Pabrai Said This Re Stock Market Bubbles

The John Johnston Lounge ·

2023/07/22

In this episode I summarize and discuss a talk by investor and fund manager Mohnish Pabrai on US stock market bubbles since the 1920s. We look at the Motors Bubble, the Tronics Bubble, the Nifty-Fifty Bubble, and the Dotcom Bubble. I also discuss very recent market bubbles, including the EV bubble and emerging AI bubble. Timestamps: 00:00 Mohnish Pabrai stock market bubbles Intro 00:22 The Motors Bubble (1921) and the EV Bubble (2020-21) 02:40 The Tronics Bubble (1959-62) and the emerging AI bubble

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00:13:48

A Next Gen Warren Buffett? Tiny's Andrew Wilkinson

The John Johnston Lounge ·

2023/07/20

In this episode I discuss the young Canadian billionaire investor and entrepreneur Andrew Wilkinson. He's the co-founder of Tiny Ltd , which has been labelled a baby Berkshire Hathaway of Tech. It's a small-cap holding company comprising many previous company acquisitions, start-ups, and company investments. Timestamps: 00:00 Andrew Wilkinson and Tiny Ltd intro 00:23 A Berkshire Hathaway of Tech 01:24 Buying like Buffett and Mark Leonard (Constellation Software) 02:22 Focusing on the

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00:12:53

Stock Market Crash Over? Big Short Investor Steve...

The John Johnston Lounge ·

2023/07/15

In this episode I summarize and discuss what legendary investor Steve Eisman, who was played by Steve Carell in the movie The Big Short, has been predicting for the end of the US stock market crash - after the market declined around 25% in 2022, and has been steadily rebounding since October 2022. I also respond to our value investing YouTuber friend Hamish Hodder's find that Eisman recently revealed his next big stock market sector bet. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:18 Eisman predicts: If the Fed

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00:12:09

Jeremy Grantham: AI Boom Pauses Super-Bubble Bust!

The John Johnston Lounge ·

2023/07/11

In this episode I summarize and discuss a recent interview with veteran value investor Jeremy Grantham, in which he explains how he thinks the deflation of a financial markets super-bubble is currently being prolonged by an emerging mini-bubble in artificial intelligence (AI). Timestamps: 00:00 Jeremy Grantham Super-Bubble Intro 00:45 Who is Jeremy Grantham? 01:21 Grantham's prediction track record 02:21 Super-Bubble stages, including the emerging AI mini-bubble 05:45 Is this a big bear market

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00:09:00

Mohnish Pabrai on Mistakes, AI Euphoria, Nvidia,...

The John Johnston Lounge ·

2023/07/07

In this episode I summarize and discuss selected parts of a recent Q&A session with value investor and fund manager Mohnish Pabrai. During the Q&A Pabrai offered his thoughts on investing mistakes and the reasons for the high average rate of investor errors, current Nvidia (NVDA) euphoria compared with Microsoft (MSFT) euphoria during the Dotcom Bubble, and what it takes to be a good investor. Timestamps: 00:00 Mohnish Pabrai Q&A intro 00:19 Investing mistakes and projecting Nvidia to

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00:11:25

Seth Klarman: We've Had An Everything Bubble...

The John Johnston Lounge ·

2023/06/30

In this episode I summarize and discuss a recent interview with legendary value investor Seth Klarman. During the interview Klarman discussed the “Everything Bubble” he sees unwinding, the investing opportunities that’s bringing, the nature of value investing in relation to growth, buying quality companies at the right price, how to get an edge in the competitive investing environment today, technology investing in inefficient markets, Bitcoin, the current macroeconomic environment, and

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00:14:57

Are AI Stocks A Bubble? Druckenmiller, Greenblatt...

The John Johnston Lounge ·

2023/06/28

This episode discusses recent comments by three stock market investors, including legendary fund managers Stanley Druckenmiller and Joel Greenblatt, focusing on the question: we know there’s an artificial intelligence (AI) boom going on right now, but is there an AI stock bubble? We look at what these investors are saying about AI stocks, Nvidia stock (NVDA), the current stock market, and how they think it’s going to play out. I also give my opinion on the topics. Timestamps: 00:00 AI stock bubble

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00:26:02

Wall St Journal Attacks Tesla Valuation | My Response

The John Johnston Lounge ·

2023/06/23

In this episode I summarize and respond to a recent Wall Street Journal article questioning the current Tesla stock market valuation. I also respond to popular investing YouTuber Joesph Carlson’s reaction to that Wall Street Journal Tesla analysis. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro: The Wall Stree Journal hit piece and Joseph Carlson’s response 01:40 Good company in a bad industry? 03:02 Not just an auto company? 04:11 Tesla ecosystem 04:49 Tesla destination: does it need Elon? 05:43 Market valuation too

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00:16:46

Chuck Akre Said This About How to Find 100 Baggers

The John Johnston Lounge ·

2023/06/21

In this episode I summarize and discuss an interview with legendary investor Chuck Akre, in which he lays out his three-legged stool investing approach that has enabled him to achieve multiple 100 bagger stocks, and many multi-baggers. We look at examples from Akre Capital Management’s portfolio, and how his investment strategy has achieved such impressive returns over the long term. Timestamps: 00:00 Chuck Akre intro 00:31 Akre Capital Management Portfolio 01:45 Investing from a one traffic light

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00:11:51

Brookfield CEO Just Said This Re: Stock Market, AI,...

The John Johnston Lounge ·

2023/06/18

In this episode I summarize and discuss a recent panel interview with Bruce Flatt, CEO of Brookfield and often referred to as the Canadian Warren Buffett. Flatt gave his thoughts on today’s stock market, what he thinks is currently overhyped, long term investing, investing in China, and the renewable energy transition. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro: Bruce Flatt and Brookfield 01:10 Brookfield’s super-investor shareholders 02:20 What’s overhyped right now 04:13 What's under-appreciated right now 04:53

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00:11:28

Why Druckenmiller Owns Nvidia Despite "Nosebleed...

The John Johnston Lounge ·

2023/06/14

This episode summarizes and discusses a recent interview with legendary macro-investor Stan Druckenmiller. Druckenmiller talked about his current bullishness on AI stocks and how they’ve been dominating his long portfolio for the past few months. He also talked about the hard landing recession that he still sees coming, and his predictions for the economic environment. His comments are always worth listening to, as he hasn’t had a year of negative investment returns in 40 years. Timestamps: 00:00

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00:07:22

Alibaba Update: Cloud Spinoff & More Coming

The John Johnston Lounge ·

2023/06/09

This episode is an update on Alibaba’s ongoing spin-off plans for its various business segments, starting with the Alibaba Cloud Intelligence Group within the next 12 months, with others to follow. I explore what these business are, what they do, and what their prospects are as future individual companies. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:37 First Spinoff: Alibaba Cloud Intelligence Group 02:10 Next IPO plans 02:28 China Commerce 03:08 International Commerce 03:38 Local Consumer Services 04:08

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00:10:45

Alibaba Full Year Earnings Update | BABA Stock

The John Johnston Lounge ·

2023/06/07

This episode includes a summary and thoughts on Alibaba's Full Fiscal Year 2023 Results, the current China economic backdrop, Alibaba’s ongoing share repurchases, a brief update on Alibaba's planned spinoffs including Alibaba Cloud, some comments from the CEO and CFO, and the overall direction of company. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:25 BABA the controversial stock 01:20 Alibaba the company 03:00 CEO & CFO comments 04:30 Multiple spinoff announcements 05:30 New business capital allocation

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00:22:50

Guru Portfolios: Buffett, Pabrai, Li Lu, Akre,...

The John Johnston Lounge ·

2023/06/01

A look at the portfolio updates of seven guru or super-investors from Q1 2023. The investors include Warren Buffett (together with Charlie Munger at Berkshire Hathaway), Mohnish Pabrai, Li Lu, Chuck Akre, Bill Ackman, David Tepper, and Thomas Gayner. See below for timestamps for investor sections, and related episodes. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:15 Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger - Berkshire Hathaway 05:15 Mohnish Pabrai - Pabrai Investments 09:00 Li Lu - Himalaya Capital Management 12:08

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00:11:56

Mohnish Pabrai: Key Investing Lessons from "Circling...

The John Johnston Lounge ·

2023/05/28

I summarize and discuss key lessons from Mohnish Pabrai’s latest presentation, Circle the Wagons, in which he emphasizes the importance of finding and protecting your very best few investments for the long term, and how to go about doing that. Related episodes: Mohnish Pabrai Talks Constellation Software & Mark Leonard https://youtu.be/xPI773-AE-I Mohnish Pabrai on The Best Super Investor You Don't Know: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala https://youtu.be/XwgLnnr_nCw Stan Druckenmiller Still Predicts

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00:10:25

Mohnish Pabrai Talks Constellation Software & Mark...

The John Johnston Lounge ·

2023/05/24

In this episode I summarize and discuss Mohnish Pabrai’s recent comments on serial acquirer company Constellation Software, and its legendary founder CEO Mark Leonard. Pabrai had many positive things to say about the company and its future prospects. I also discuss Topicus, a recent spin-off from Constellation software. Relevant stock tickers: CSU.TO TOI.V Related episodes: Mohnish Pabrai Portfolio Update: Pabrai Buys BAM Stock! (Brookfield Asset Management) https://youtu.be/c5ivXtnz6-U Mohnish

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00:25:05

The AI Race is ON! Google Showcases New AI Products

The John Johnston Lounge ·

2023/05/18

I react to highlights from the recent Google I/O keynote presentation, which features impressive competitive technologies to OpenAI's GPT-4 and wildly popular ChatGPT. Google showcases its many new AI powered products within its existing suite of products and services, including Help Me Write in Gmail and Workspace apps, Magic Editor in Google Photos, PaLM 2 (competitor to GPT-4), Med-PaLM for the healthcare sector, next generation language model Gemini, Bard (competitor to ChatGPT), Google

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