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PODCAST

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

The official audio version of Astral Codex Ten, with an archive of posts from Slate Star Codex. It"s just me reading Scott Alexander"s blog posts.

technology

All Episodes

22:35

Mantic Monday 3/14/22

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2022/03/15

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-31422 Changes in Ukraine prediction markets since my last post February 28: Will Kiev fall to Russian forces by April 2022?: 69% —→ 14% Will at least three of six big cities fall by June 1?: 71% —→ 70% Will World War III happen before 2050?: 20% —→21% Will Russia invade any other country in 2022?: 12% —→10% Will Putin still be president of Russia next February?: 71% —→ 80% Will 50,000 civilians die in any single Ukrainian city?: 8% —→

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33:20

Ukraine Thoughts And Links

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2022/03/12

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ukraine-thoughts-and-links?s=r Disclaimer: I am not an expert in international relations or military strategy, which is fine. In democracies, it’s normal and correct for ordinary citizens to have opinions on important world issues, and demands that they not do so are ahistorical and dangerous. Still, take anything I say with a grain of salt. 1: This isn’t “history restarting” . . . yet Whatever Francis Fukuyama meant by “the end of history”, it probably wasn’t

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07:17

Progesterone Megadoses Might Be A Cheap Zulresso...

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2022/03/11

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/progesterone-megadoses-might-be-a Earlier this week we talked about Zulresso, a new medication for post-partum depression. It works well, but it can only be administered at a few special hospitals, and costs $35,000 per treatment. But Zulresso is a natural metabolite of the female hormone progesterone. What’s stopping people from taking progesterone, waiting for their bodies to metabolize it into Zulresso, and saving $35,000 and a hospital stay? As far as I can

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12:24

Advice For Unwoke Academic?

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2022/03/11

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/advice-for-unwoke-academic An academic recently asked me for advice. A lucky career development has now made him almost un-fire-able, and he wants to join the fight for academic freedom. We talked about two different strategies: Fabian Strategy: Become a beloved pillar of his college community. Volunteer for all those committees everyone always tries to weasel out of. When some wokeness-related issue comes up - merit vs. diversity hiring, wokeness study class

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29:52

Zounds! It's Zulresso and Zuranolone!

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2022/03/09

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/zounds-its-zulresso-and-zuranolone How excited should we be about the latest class of antidepressants? 1: What is Zulresso? Wikipedia describes Zulresso as “A bat-winged, armless toad with tentacles instead of a face... ” - no! sorry! That’s Zvilpogghua, one of the Great Old Ones from the Lovecraft mythos. Zulresso is the brand name of allopregnanolone (aka brexanolone), a new medication for post-partum depression. It’s interesting as a potential missing link

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23:51

What Are We Arguing About When We Argue About...

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2022/03/04

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/what-are-we-arguing-about-when-we The backstory: Steven Pinker wrote a book about rationality. The book concludes it is good. People should learn how to be more rational, and then we will have fewer problems. Howard Gardner, well-known wrong person, sort of criticized the book. The criticism was facile, a bunch of stuff like “rationality is important, but relationships are also important, so there”. Pinker’s counterargument is dubious: Gardner’s essay avoids

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05:31

Microaddictions

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2022/03/03

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/microaddictions Everyone always says you should “eat mindfully”. I tried this once and it was weird. For example, I noticed that only the first few bites of a tasty food actually tasted good. After that I habituated and lost it. Not only that, but there was a brief period when I finished eating the food which was below hedonic baseline. This seems pretty analogous to addiction, tolerance, and withdrawal. If you use eg heroin, I’m told it feels very good the

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57:45

Ukraine Warcasting

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2022/03/01

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ukraine-warcasting Yeah, I know you’re saturated with Ukraine content. Yeah, I know everyone wants to relate their hobbyhorse to Ukraine. But I think it’s genuinely useful to talk about prediction markets right now. Current conventional wisdom is that the invasion was a miscalculation on Putin’s part, after he surrounded himself with so many yes-men that he lost touch with reality. But Ukraine miscalculated too; until almost the day of the invasion, Zelenskyy

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01:17

Austin Meetup Correction

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2022/02/26

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/austin-meetup-correction?utm_source=url Austin meetup is still this Sunday, 2/27, 12-3. But the location has been switched to Moontower Cider Company at 1916 Tillery St. The organizer is still sbarta@gmail.com , and you can still contact him if you have any questions. As per usual procedure, everyone is invited. Please feel free to come even if you feel awkward about it, even if you’re not “the typical ACX reader”, even if you’re worried people won’t like

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01:10:47

Biological Anchors: A Trick That Might Or Might Not Work

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2022/02/24

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/biological-anchors-a-trick-that-might?utm_source=url Introduction I've been trying to review and summarize Eliezer Yudkowksy's recent dialogues on AI safety. Previously in sequence: Yudkowsky Contra Ngo On Agents. Now we’re up to Yudkowsky contra Cotra on biological anchors, but before we get there we need to figure out what Cotra's talking about and what's going on. The Open Philanthropy Project ("Open Phil") is a big effective altruist foundation interested

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31:25

Links For February

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2022/02/23

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-february?utm_source=url [Remember, I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I will have caught them all by the time you read this.] 1: The newest studies don’t find evidence that extracurriculars like chess, second

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18:13

Play Money And Reputation Systems

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2022/02/22

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/play-money-and-reputation-systems?utm_source=url For now, US-based prediction markets can’t use real money without clearing near-impossible regulatory hurdles. So smaller and more innovative projects will have to stick with some kind of play money or reputation-based system. I used to be really skeptical here, but Metaculus and Manifold have softened my stance. So let’s look closer at how and whether these kinds of systems work. Any play money or reputation

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01:53

Austin Meetup Next Sunday

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2022/02/19

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/austin-meetup-next-sunday?utm_source=url I’ll be in Austin on Sunday, 2/27, and the meetup group there has kindly agreed to host me and anyone else who wants to show up. We’ll be at RichesArt (an art gallery with an outdoor space) at 2511 E 6th St Unit A from noon to 3. The organizer is sbarta@gmail.com , you can contact him if you have any questions. As per usual procedure, everyone is invited. Please feel free to come even if you feel awkward about it,

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11:45

The Gods Only Have Power Because We Believe In Them

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2022/02/18

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-gods-only-have-power-because?utm_source=url [with apologies to Terry Pratchett and TVTropes] “Is it true,” asked the student, “that the gods only have power because we believe in them?” “Yes,” said the sage. “Then why not appear openly? How many more people would believe in the Thunderer if, upon first gaining enough worshipers to cast lightning at all, he struck all of the worst criminals and tyrants?” “Because,” said the sage, “the gods only gain power

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01:16:13

Book Review: Sadly, Porn

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2022/02/18

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-sadly-porn I. Freshman English class says all books need a conflict. Man vs. Man, Man vs. Self, whatever. The conflict in Sadly, Porn is Author vs. Reader. The author - the pseudonymous “Edward Teach, MD” - is a spectacular writer. Your exact assessment of his skill will depend on where you draw the line between writing ability and other virtues - but where he’s good, he’s amazing. Nobody else takes you for quite the same kind of ride. He’s also

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20:33

Mantic Monday: Ukraine Cube Manifold

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2022/02/15

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-ukraine-cube-manifold?r=fm577 Ukraine Thanks to Clay Graubard for doing my work for me: These run from about 48% to 60%, but I think the differences are justified by the slightly different wordings of the question and definitions of “invasion”. You see a big jump last Friday when the US government increased the urgency of their own warnings. I ignored this on Friday because I couldn’t figure out what their evidence was, but it looks like the smart

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23:33

Highlights From The Comments On Motivated Reasoning...

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2022/02/13

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-motivated I. Comments From People Who Actually Know What They’re Talking About Gabriel writes: The brain trains on magnitude and acts on sign. That is to say, there are two different kinds of "module" that are relevant to this problem as you described, but they're not RL and other; they're both other. The learning parts are not precisely speaking reinforcement learning, at least not by the algorithm you described. They're

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01:28:09

ACX Grants ++: The Second Half

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2022/02/11

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/acx-grants-the-second-half This is the closing part of ACX Grants. Projects that I couldn’t fully fund myself were invited to submit a brief description so I could at least give them free advertising here. You can look them over and decide if any seem worth donating your money, time, or some other resource to. I’ve removed obvious trolls, a few for-profit businesses without charitable value who tried to sneak in under the radar, and a few that violated my

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50:54

So You Want To Run A Microgrants Program

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2022/02/10

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/so-you-want-to-run-a-microgrants I. Medical training is a wild ride. You do four years of undergrad in some bio subject, ace your MCATs, think you’re pretty hot stuff. Then you do your med school preclinicals, study umpteen hours a day, ace your shelf exams, and it seems like you're pretty much there. Then you start your clinical rotations, get a real patient in front of you, and you realize - oh god, I know absolutely nothing about medicine. This is also how I

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17:02

Heuristics That Almost Always Work

Astral Codex Ten Podcast ·

2022/02/09

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/heuristics-that-almost-always-work The Security Guard He works in a very boring building. It basically never gets robbed. He sits in his security guard booth doing the crossword. Every so often, there’s a noise, and he checks to see if it’s robbers, or just the wind. It’s the wind. It is always the wind. It’s never robbers. Nobody wants to rob the Pillow Mart in Topeka, Ohio. If a building on average gets robbed once every decade or two, he might go his entire

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