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PODCAST

Global Research Unlocked

BofA Global Research

Listen and subscribe to Global Research Unlocked. A podcast from BofA Global Research. Nuanced insights that can help you chart the right path. Our industry-leading analysts discuss what’s emerging – from risks and opportunities to growth themes like AI and energy transition.

business investing

All Episodes

15:44

What did we learn from our Media in Montauk Conference?

Global Research Unlocked ·

2024/06/28

Slam dunk for streaming media in acquiring NBA rightsEarlier this month, Head of US Media and Entertainment Research Jessica Reif Ehrlich hosted her annual Media in Montauk conference. As is typical, discussions at the conference were most focused on long-term trends and strategy. Women's sports got a lot of focus, especially as the WNBA has seen rising ratings and interest. Year-round offerings are particularly important for streaming networks looking to combat churn and the scheduling of the WNBA

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17:55

Cooling but not cool; US labor market remains robust...

Global Research Unlocked ·

2024/06/26

Job gains will slow but healthcare has room to run The labor market has remained robust, adding an average of about 250k jobs monthly since the start of the year. But services jobs account for the bulk of the recent growth and at this point, demand in many parts of the service economy have fully recovered. Additionally, structural changes and shifts toward automation accelerated amidst the difficult hiring backdrop. Michael Gapen addresses questions about how much growth is left in services jobs, he

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21:11

As prices rise, consumers dig into leftovers, putting...

Global Research Unlocked ·

2024/06/24

Volume picture better for restaurants than packaged food Food companies are seeing negative volumes, both in their grocery businesses and their food service businesses. The volume picture looks a bit better for the largest restaurants but it's also sluggish. Consumers seem to be economizing more than they were a year or two ago, one way is by eating more leftovers, or eating breakfast at home, and that poses some important questions for these industries as they seek to improve volume growth. But

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19:37

Making sense of historic yen weakness, and its...

Global Research Unlocked ·

2024/06/05

A weaker yen can boost exports and tourism profitsThe Japanese Yen hasn't been at these levels vs the US dollar since the late 1980s. There are two key drivers of this Yen weakness. One is the interest rate spread. The second, and probably more important longer term, is structural outflows from Japan and the biggest component of this is outward FDI (foreign direct investment) activity by Japanese corporates. The weak yen has mixed effects, boosting export competitiveness and helping tourism revenue

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16:54

A magical intermission; entertainment spending growth...

Global Research Unlocked ·

2024/06/04

What's old is new again: bundling streaming services Entertainment and theme park spending growth has been weaker as demand normalizes from the post-reopening surge. But despite difficult comps, domestic attendance for key parks is flat to up with small and new attractions as a key driver. Indeed, we will get an important major new attraction in Orlando next year. In streaming, viewers can expect to see more personalized ads and ads that allow for more direct purchasing. Combined with election

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21:16

Even as the cycle extends, some credit metrics improve

Global Research Unlocked ·

2024/05/23

Buy now pay later slowing but still disruptingRising card delinquency rates, particularly among lower income consumers, are one of several pieces of data that have led some to take a negative view of the US consumer. But Mihir suggests delinquency rates have started to decline recently and discusses why that's been the case. Ultimately, employment is a key driver for consumer credit and we'd be more concerned if the outlook for jobs deteriorated more rapidly. "Buy Now/Pay Later" or BNPL has enjoyed

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16:48

Slow growth and Fed cuts help build a good case for...

Global Research Unlocked ·

2024/05/21

A slow but steady hand on the cut button The eventual impact of higher rates on credit, the rise of private capital, slow loan growth and forthcoming tighter regulations have all weighed on bank multiples to varying degrees. But these attractive multiples relative to history, combined with a view that rates probably have peaked, keep Ebrahim Poonawala constructive on the bank group. This is particularly true for money center banks and large regionals, which are less impacted by regulatory changes

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23:48

Copper and uranium demand boosted by a multitude of...

Global Research Unlocked ·

2024/05/13

Strong demand and difficult supply Over the last two decades, copper demand was inexorably linked to China. At times, China accounted for 110% of global copper demand growth. Now, countries are rebuilding their supply chains at home, building data centers and decarbonizing. While the source of copper demand has changed, demand growth remains compelling and strategist Michael Widmer is bullish on the metal while analyst Lawson Winder is constructive on exposed stocks, even as EV sales slow. On the

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17:24

Millennial housing bid continues, but shifting to...

Global Research Unlocked ·

2024/05/13

Millennial home buying continues but in some new places New home sales are down only marginally from 2021 levels despite mortgage rates rising roughly 300bps over that period. Demand from Millennials entering peak home buying age, wealthy boomers and domestic migration have helped to offset affordability challenges created by higher rates. Existing home sales, however, have slowed to the lowest levels in roughly 30 years as homeowners are "locked-in" at low mortgage rates. A decline in rates would

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16:24

Inflation, technology and shifting realities for...

Global Research Unlocked ·

2024/05/06

Big portion of retailers hoping for lower rates Home improvement retail has been challenged by a number of factors of late, from pandemic pull-forward to weakness in existing home sales to inflation that's crowding out other spending. Lower rates would help and millennial home buying continues to provide some support for sales. Robby discusses the role home improvement stocks could play in the housing affordability challenges we face. Shifting to other areas in Robby's coverage, general merchandise

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14:23

Software’s AI Opportunity Is Still Ahead

Global Research Unlocked ·

2024/04/23

AI: Hardware Today, Software TomorrowCorporate investments in AI have had significant impact on the financials of certain semiconductor and server companies, but while software providers stand to benefit from AI investments too, the technology hasn't yet shown up in the profits of these companies in a meaningful way. Alkesh Shah draws parallels between AI today and the Internet in 1995. Back then, investments were mainly in equipment and chips and the successful Internet companies that we know

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16:03

Pandemic debt maturities, higher rates make for busy...

Global Research Unlocked ·

2024/04/23

Higher rates broadening the converts issuance market Convertible bonds (CBs) can offer equity-like returns with downside protection thanks to the coupon and the ability to redeem most CBs at par. Thus far in 2024, CB issuance has been active, well ahead of levels seen the last few years. Michael discusses the reasons for such an active issuance year, including that Pandemic debt issuance, which was at record levels in the convert space, is starting to come due and converts offer issuers the ability

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18:10

S&P earnings growth to bloom and broaden in 2024

Global Research Unlocked ·

2024/04/11

Earnings improvement is still fairly nascentIn 2023, we saw an earnings recession, at least in the first half of the year, despite GDP growth that was ahead of trend. Back then, companies were adapting to higher rates, weaker demand and climbing costs, which weighed on earnings. Ohsung Kwon expects earnings growth to look much better in 2024. This year benefits from a lower 2023 earnings base on which to build as well as a number of positives, including rising margins through more rational

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17:05

Sticky inflation and strong labor market don’t imply...

Global Research Unlocked ·

2024/04/03

Data trends are approaching Fed threshold for rate cutsThe latest economic data releases this year suggest the labor market remains strong but is cooling and the consumer is resilient in the face of sticky inflation, especially on the services side of the economy. Michael Gapen says the rebound in the labor force, labor participation and net migration played a crucial role in his revised US GDP (gross domestic product) estimates where he forecasts higher economic growth in 2024 and lower growth in

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22:12

Wheels make the economy go ‘round; transports and the...

Global Research Unlocked ·

2024/04/03

Transports would ride the cycle but modes matter Transport metrics had been in an extended downturn for around 18 months. Demand was depressed, inventory levels were high and end demand for goods had faded from COVID highs. But more recently there are signs of stabilization in some of the data tracked by BofA Global Research, partly because trucking supply has been removed. And some purchasing managers indices, or PMIs, have shown modest improvement. Ken Hoexter discusses what this improvement means

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07:09

Geopolitical calm would help, until then Europe tied...

Global Research Unlocked ·

2024/03/27

A number of things can go right for Europe Earlier this month, BofA Securities hosted a Global Investor Summit in Rome, Italy. In attendance were corporate executives, prominent investors, policy experts, members of BofA management and several BofA Global Research strategists. Topics ranged from private capital to understanding central banks to the future of Europe. Michael Hartnett suggests that while European markets have been doing well, you often hear a less bullish view of the world in the

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20:23

Rate hikes mostly kept these markets from emerging,...

Global Research Unlocked ·

2024/03/20

Global growth matters for Emerging MarketsAt the start of the year, markets were pricing in three rate cuts by June and now, the likelihood of one cut by June is close to 50/50 based on market implied probabilities. But while delayed rate cuts complicate the bull case for Emerging Markets (EM), David Hauner does point out that expectations for cuts have slid partly because of stronger economies, a positive for EM. Still, further delays in rate cuts would likely be a short-term negative for EM

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23:23

ESG is evolving, but not going away; new EU rules to...

Global Research Unlocked ·

2024/03/18

ESG topics still impacting stocks and there's more to come US ESG funds faced a challenging 2023, seeing net outflows of around $7.1 billion, but strong markets meant that assets under management grew strongly. In the US, ESG regulations have historically been market driven, unlike the specific directives in the EU, but more recently the regulatory landscape in the US has seen a flurry of initiatives. For investors, there is state legislation that seeks to penalize managers who boycott fossil fuels

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22:08

Slowing the shrink; the impact and impetus behind a...

Global Research Unlocked ·

2024/02/26

Rate policy isn't the only big Fed change likely for '24Since emerging from the COVID pandemic, the Fed has contracted the size of its balance sheet, also known as Quantitative Tightening (QT). They've done this by allowing their Treasury holdings to mature without reinvesting the proceeds. This has placed upward pressure on yields, all else equal. But the Fed is expected to slow this process later this year. Mark Cabana says this is good news for the Treasury market as it means the private sector

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19:18

Merger Monday not yet ready to take over but expect...

Global Research Unlocked ·

2024/02/12

M&A activity should increase but not everywhere M&A (Mergers & Acquisition) activity had fallen to well-below the 10Y average over the last 2 years. There are various reasons for this slowdown, including higher rates and negative corporate sentiment. But between equity markets faring well over the last year and interest rates off highs, there are some reasons to expect a recovery. Indeed, we've seen a bit of an uptick. We speak with Jill Hall who points out that SMID cap valuations

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