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PODCAST

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova

Pushkin Industries

Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions. Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000

news politics

All Episodes

44:12

Presidential Pardons and Other Family Gift-Giving...

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2024/12/05

Is Biden on tilt? Nate and Maria analyze the Hunter Biden pardon and try to find the line between false equivalence and equivalence. Then, inspired by the president’s present, they offer some thoughts on game-theory optimal gift giving for the holiday season. By the way, Nate and Maria will be hosting a poker meet up at the Bellagio next week! 12pm PST on 12/11 at the Bellagio poker room in Las Vegas. RSVP to attend For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria

en-US

51:09

Get Happier, Help Others: Some Good Ideas About Giving

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2024/12/02

It's the season of giving: colorful paper and shiny bows, sure, and charitable giving, too. In this special episode, Jacob Goldstein, the host of What's Your Problem, gets smart about donating. Did you know that spending money on others makes you happier than spending money on yourself? Or that altruistic nerds have discovered four of the most impactful charities in the world (per dollar spent)? Have you ever wondered how poker players think about giving? Dr. Laurie Santos from The Happiness Lab,

en-US

42:50

Maria and Nate’s Guide to GTO Travel

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2024/11/28

Nate and Maria share their game-theory-optimal travel strategies – the best time to get to the airport, the optimal airport meal, the value of rental car insurance, and more. Also: The biggest travel mistakes they ever made. Then, Maria breaks down a scandal in academic psychology research – and she and Nate discuss the underlying incentives that have led researchers to make bad decisions. Do you have a topic or theme you’d like Nate & Maria to discuss in a future episode? Reach out to us at

en-US

38:50

How Senators and NFL Players Make High Risk Decisions

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2024/11/21

Nate and Maria talk through the game theory of how moderate Republican Senators are likely to react to Trump’s controversial cabinet nominees. Then, they discuss the new “Guardian Caps” the NFL has approved to lower the risk of concussion – and explain why most players are deciding not to wear them. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

en-US

37:50

Will Trump Bring the River to Washington?

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2024/11/14

Nate and Maria discuss the influence of Riverians like Elon Musk on the Trump Administration, and what’s next for Democrats looking ahead to 2026. Then, Maria tells Nate about a few key hands from the penultimate table of the North American Poker Tour Main Event. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

en-US

40:16

Polls, Prediction Markets, and How Trump Won

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2024/11/06

Nate and Maria take a closer look at the results of the election. They discuss polling errors, prediction markets, demographic shifts, and campaign strategy. And Nate shares some parting advice for President Biden. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

en-US

31:21

What to Look for on Election Day

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2024/11/04

On the day before the election, Nate gives a final model update, explains the latest polls, and talks about what he’ll be looking for on election day. Then, Maria and Nate trade their predictions and fears for how election day will play out. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

en-US

42:56

The Worst Decisions of the Harris and Trump (and...

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2024/10/31

What were the worst and best decisions of this year’s presidential campaigns? With less than a week to go, Nate and Maria look back at the key strategic decisions of the race.And of course, we spend some time looking at the model. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

en-US

45:55

Odd Lots: Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova on the Art...

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2024/10/30

Earlier this election cycle, Nate and Maria appeared on Odd Lots to talk about prediction markets and election betting. It was a fun conversation -- and we're releasing it now for anyone hoping to get their final bets in. Political prediction markets — where traders can make bets on election outcomes — have been around for years. But in this cycle in particular, we've seen an explosion of interest, with people constantly checking the odds on sites like Polymarket and PredictIt to assess the state of

en-US

48:29

How to build a championship team, with Daryl Morey of...

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2024/10/24

This week, Nate and Maria talk to Daryl Morey of the Philadelphia 76ers about bringing game theory and probabilistic thinking to the NBA. And, of course, Nate and Maria discuss the election. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

en-US

43:14

How Maria Won Her First WSOP Bracelet

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2024/10/17

Maria snagged her first World Series of Poker Bracelet! She and Nate break down her strategy on the crucial hands that got her the win. Then, we turn our attention to the Nobel Peace Prize and the p(doom) of nuclear warfare. And, of course, we have our weekly “Should Democrats Be Panicking?” segment. Further Reading: The Big Announcement More on Thomas Schelling More on Stanislav Petrov aka the man who saved the world For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from

en-US

43:30

The Degenerate Gambler’s Guide to the Election

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2024/10/09

Nate and Maria give a degenerate gambler's guide to the election, covering everything from Nate’s $100k gamble on Florida to listener-inspired prop bets. Maria explains why poker bots are shaking up the world of online poker. Plus, Nate and Maria lament the spread of AI “slop” online, and re-evaluate their p(doom) in light of recent developments at OpenAI. Further Reading: Should Kamala Harris gamble on a Blue Florida? from the Silver Bulletin The Russian Bot Army That Conquered Online Poker from

en-US

48:59

How to Win Bets and Influence Elections

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2024/10/03

Caroline Ellison, the second most important person who worked at FTX, was sentenced to prison this week. Nate and Maria talk about how she and Sam Bankman-Fried thought about making +EV bets (with other people’s money). They discuss her role – victim? villain? – and how she played out her real-life prisoner’s dilemma. Then, Nate gives an election update, and he and Maria discuss what people can do to influence the election in the final weeks. (Hint: It’s not donating to a presidential campaign.)

en-US

44:33

Conning with the Stars: Anna Delvey, Voting...

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2024/09/26

Nate and Maria discuss Anna Sorokin’s (AKA Anna Delvey) spin on Dancing with the Stars. Then, they debate the merits and limits of voting in your self interest, and Nate explains why Nebraska has his attention on the election map. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

en-US

44:53

Should You Be Able to Bet On the Election?

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2024/09/19

Kalshi, a company that offers prediction markets, sued the US government in an effort to legalize betting on elections. Nate and Maria discuss the pros and cons of election prediction markets. Plus, Nate gives an election update and Maria learns what to do when there’s no plus-EV move. Further Reading: Ready Your Bets: Election gambling is going mainstream in the US from Politico Election Betting Halted After Appeals Court Agrees to Hit the Breaks from WSJ Betting On Elections Can Tell Us A Lot. Why

en-US

38:32

Does Nate Trust His Model? Debates, Prediction...

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2024/09/12

Nate and Maria discuss the Harris-Trump debate. Then, Nate gives an update on his election model, and Maria shares the outcome of her irrational move at a poker tournament in Barcelona. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

en-US

48:14

Calculating Risks in a Creative Life, with Brian...

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2024/09/05

Maria sits down with the great Brian Koppelman (Rounders, Billions, The Bear) to learn about how he navigates risk in Hollywood and beyond. They discuss his methods of determining when a risk is worth taking, how to offset risk with hard work, and the time he bet big on Billions. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

en-US

54:39

Amazing Frauds, Faking Your Own Death, and the Latest...

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2024/08/29

Nate and Maria briefly discuss the latest election news. Then Tim Harford, author and host of Cautionary Tales, joins to discuss two of history’s most compelling con artists: Sam Israel III and John Law. Risk-related lessons are learned. Further Reading: A Con Man Who Lives Between Truth and Fiction from the New York Times The Murderer, The Boy King, and The Invention of Modern Finance from NPR (featuring our EP Jacob Goldstein!) For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The

en-US

40:23

Kamala Edition: Taxes, Tariffs, and the DNC

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2024/08/21

This week Nate and Maria discuss the state of Kamala Harris’ presidential bid, including taking a look at her first policy proposals on price gouging and taxes on tips. For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

en-US

43:08

Lessons from The River (Maria Interviews Nate About...

Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova ·

2024/08/15

Nate’s book “On the Edge” is out this week! (Get your copy here.) Maria interviews Nate about the origins of the book, what extreme risk takers get right and wrong, and the year Nate bet a million dollars on sports. Check out the Risky Business YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@RiskyBusinessShow For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

en-US

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