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PODCAST

Telltales

An investing podcast + substack for people who want to compound their wealth over the long run and don"t mind sailing analogies telltales.substack.com

business investing

All Episodes

34:23

Meta's Magnificent Risks: Battling Apple in the Age...

Telltales ·

2024/10/02

In this episode, the Telltales team dives into the risks facing Meta (formerly Facebook, META 0.00%↑ ) as it navigates a shifting social media landscape and invests heavily in AI and the metaverse. They also discuss the latest healthcare news, including breakthroughs in treating diabetes and sickle cell disease.For earlier episodes in this series, check out:Apple's Underwhelming Reveal: A Sign of Shifting Tides? (e2437)Alphabet's Achilles Heel: Is Google the Next Kodak? (e2438)Examining Amazon's AI

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34:13

Examining Amazon's AI Strategy and Risks (e2439)

Telltales ·

2024/09/27

ShownotesIn this episode of Telltales Podcast, Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence explore the cash flow characteristics of companies across sectors like energy, technology, and healthcare. They also provide insights into US government finances, natural gas, and oil markets. Here’s a breakdown of the main topics discussed.[00:32] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply and Demand The hosts discuss how macroeconomic factors and geopolitical changes in Lebanon have temporarily impacted oil prices,

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31:47

Alphabet's Achilles Heel: Is Google the Next Kodak?...

Telltales ·

2024/09/18

In this episode, the Telltales team dives deep into the risks and uncertainties facing Google and its parent company Alphabet as AI technologies like ChatGPT threaten to disrupt its long-standing search business model. Jason shares his concerns that Google could become the next Kodak if it fails to adapt to the AI-powered future of search.[00:08:17] Google's AI Search Dilemma (Page 1) Jason warns that Google's model of 10 blue links for search, which has been around for over 20 years, is vulnerable

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31:00

Apple's Underwhelming Reveal: A Sign of Shifting...

Telltales ·

2024/09/11

In this episode, the Telltales team discusses the latest developments in the energy sector, Apple's lackluster iPhone 16 launch event, and exciting updates from biotech companies Vertex, BioNTech, and Harrow Health.[00:01:05] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/Demand Hunt notes that oil is in decline, with China's demand forecast to be flat. Surplus capacity remains at 4M barrels, mostly controlled by the Saudis and Abu Dhabi. He advises waiting or buying half positions in upstream oil companies.[00:01:50]

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30:30

NVIDIA's AI Dominance and the Future of Software (e2436)

Telltales ·

2024/09/04

In this episode, the Telltales team discusses the macro environment, including government finances and energy markets, and debates the investment merits of big tech stocks trading at 30-50x free cash flow. They also dive deep into NVIDIA's leading position in accelerated computing and the potential threats to its dominance.[00:00] Oil & Gas (Exhibits B & C): Hunt opens the discussion by examining the current state of oil and natural gas markets, noting the influence of factors like China's demand

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30:11

Q2 Energy Updates & Risks to Nvidia Data Center...

Telltales ·

2024/08/28

In this episode, the Telltales team discusses the latest developments in energy markets, semiconductor stocks, and biotech. Key topics include Intel's decline due to strategic missteps, NVIDIA's AI leadership and competitive risks, and updates on oil, natural gas, and the U.S. deficit.[00:59] WORLD OIL SUPPLY / DEMAND (Exhibit C) Hunt notes 4 million barrels per day of spare production capacity, mostly from Saudi Arabia and UAE. If this supply came online, oil prices could drop significantly. Easing

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30:43

Jobs Data Negative Revision and Other Warning Signs:...

Telltales ·

2024/08/21

ShownotesIn this episode, the Telltales Podcast team explores recent developments in healthcare, the importance of founder stories in investing, and potential economic risks on the horizon.[00:00:54] World Oil Supply/Demand (Exhibit C) The Iranian response to recent events in Tehran has been delayed indefinitely, potentially impacting oil prices. The team discusses the ongoing situation between Hamas and Israel, as well as Saudi Arabia and UAE's role in the oil market surplus.[02:29] US Gas

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33:46

From Silicon to Medicine: Trailblazers Shaping...

Telltales ·

2024/08/14

SHOWNOTESIn this episode, we dive into the latest developments in technology, pharmaceuticals, and global markets, exploring the strategies of industry leaders and emerging trends.[00:01:18] World Oil Supply and Demand (Exhibit C) Oil consumption forecasts have been reduced due to slowdowns in China's economy, particularly in construction and infrastructure. The oil price remains stable due to geopolitical tensions involving Iran and Israel. Saudi Arabia and the UAE may increase oil supply to the

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31:17

The Yen Carry Trade Unravels: Market Chaos Explained...

Telltales ·

2024/08/07

ShownotesIn this episode of the Telltales Podcast, hosts Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence explore recent market events, discuss key companies across various sectors, and analyze their cash flow characteristics.[00:00:00] Introduction and Recent News (Exhibit C)Hunt discusses the recent antitrust judgment against Google and its potential impact on Apple. The hosts briefly touch on oil and gas market conditions.[03:21] Natural Gas Market Update (Exhibit B)Hunt provides an overview of

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32:57

Silicon Valley to Wall Street: AI Transformers Unfold...

Telltales ·

2024/07/31

Shownotes00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:56 - Market Update: Oil and Natural Gas• Oil pricing weakening; 4.4 million barrels of excess production capacity not being produced• Saudi Arabia and UAE may increase production in fall, causing near-month prices to drop• Natural gas trading very low due to oversupply; prices expected to improve in winter00:03:10 - U.S. Political Landscape and Budget• Discussion of Vice President Harris• Speculation on expiring Trump tax cuts and their impact on income tax

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32:26

Market Dynamics Decoded: Energy Forecasts, Fiscal...

Telltales ·

2024/07/25

Shownotes00:00 - Introduction00:46 - Oil Market UpdateDiscussion of 2025 oil supply and demand projectionsEstimated 104.5 million barrels per day of supply and demandBreakdown of crude oil vs other liquids in production figuresSaudi Arabia and UAE holding back 3.5 million barrels of surplus productionCaution advised on investing in oil producers currently03:00 - Natural Gas MarketCurrent low prices for natural gas Storage levels 500 BCF above 5-year averagePotential for price improvement later in

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34:01

Cashflow Compass: Navigating Energy, Healthcare, and...

Telltales ·

2024/07/17

Shownotes00:00 - Introduction02:24 - Natural Gas Market UpdateToo much gas in storage causing low near-month pricesWarm weather across US impacting demandPower prices held down by cheap gas pricesChicago City Gate price unusually close to Henry Hub04:01 - US Government FinancesReview of Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts/estimatesDiscussion of accuracy issues with CBO numbersGoal to reduce "all other" spending category to improve debt-to-GDP ratio07:03 - Healthcare Companies ReviewAddition

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33:01

Investing Insights: From Eye Care to Artificial...

Telltales ·

2024/07/10

Shownotes00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:48 - Energy Market UpdateReview of OPEC and IEA supply/demand numbers for 2024Discussion of Saudi Arabia and UAE's production capacity and disciplineNatural gas prices and production updatesLNG export facilities and delays (Freeport, Golden Pass)06:02 - Healthcare Sector DiscussionFTC's 70-page report criticizing pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs)Top 3 PBMs control 80% of prescription flow in USPotential regulatory risks for UnitedHealth, CVS, and CignaVertex and

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36:39

The Trillion-Dollar Tightrope: Markets in Flux (e2427)

Telltales ·

2024/07/03

Shownotes00:00:00 - Introduction00:01:10 - Oil and Gas Market UpdateDiscussion of OPEC and IEA reports on oil production and demand growth forecastsAnalysis of differences between OPEC and IEA projectionsNear-term natural gas prices weak due to recent heat wave not significantly impacting power pricesMarcellus producers EQT and Chesapeake curtailed production, now back online00:03:30 - U.S. Government Spending and DeficitPoor performance by Joe Biden in recent debate sparks speculation about his

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32:11

The Pulse of Profits: Energy, Healthcare, and EVs...

Telltales ·

2024/06/26

00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:55 - Oil and Gas Market UpdateOPEC+ meeting impact on oil prices: WTI dropped from $80 to $74, now back to $80Geopolitical risk premium due to Gaza conflict and potential Israel-Hezbollah tensionsNatural gas prices remain low despite heat waveGas production running at 100 bcf/day, down from 104 bcf/day in NovemberNew pipeline from West Texas to Gulf Coast opening in August05:38 - US Government FinancesNeither presidential candidate likely to address need for increased

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29:24

Telltales e2525: Media and the transition to Live...

Telltales ·

2024/06/20

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently

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33:32

AI: Apple Intelligence & how it affects OpenAI,...

Telltales ·

2024/06/12

[00:00:00] Intro[00:00:49] Exhibit C - Oil Demand and Supply[00:02:11] Exhibit B - Natural Gas Production[00:03:42] Exhibit A - Government Deficit[00:04:55] Apple's AI Approach: The discussion turns to Apple's measured approach to AI, focusing on developing a small on-device model and leveraging the platform to bring in external models like OpenAI. Mike believes this demonstrates Apple's strengths in secure and sensitive handling of personal data. The OpenAI partnership is likely a freemium model

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30:19

Cashflow Chronicles: Navigating Oil, AI, and Market...

Telltales ·

2024/06/05

SHOWNOTES00:00:00 - Introduction00:01:02 - OPEC+ Meeting and Oil PricesDiscussion on the recent OPEC+ meeting in Riyadh and its impact on oil prices.Analysis of Saudi Arabia's strategy to phase in withheld production and its implications for global oil markets.00:05:39 - U.S. Government FinancesExamination of U.S. government spending, interest rates, and the budget deficit.Discussion on the need for bipartisan efforts to reduce spending.00:06:00 - Software Companies and AIImpact of AI and large

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34:41

Telltales e2422: Oil, Gas, and Data (the new oil)

Telltales ·

2024/05/30

Shownotes[00:00:00] Introduction[00:01:31] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/DemandDiscussion: Analysis of the current oil price, risk premiums, and surplus capacity.Key Points:Risk premiums influenced by geopolitical tensions in Gaza, the Middle East, and Ukraine.Surplus capacity and its impact on future oil prices.[00:02:57] Exhibit B: US Gas Demand/SupplyDiscussion: Examination of the natural gas market, including oversupply and production adjustments.Key Points:Dry gas production forecasts and

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30:33

Navigating Cashflow: From Oil Markets to AI...

Telltales ·

2024/05/23

Welcome to the Telltales Podcast, where we delve into the pivotal role of cashflow in investing. Hosted by Mike Nicoletti, Jason Wallace, and Hunt Lawrence, this episode covers a wide range of topics from global oil supply and demand to the latest in tech and healthcare. Below are the detailed summaries of each chapter discussed in this episode.[00:00:00] Introduction[00:01:13] Exhibit C: World Oil Supply/DemandMiddle East Update: Helicopter crash in Iran killing the president and foreign minister,

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240 results

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