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PODCAST

Street Signals

Street Signals is a weekly podcast packed with insights about the latest developments in financial markets from State Street Markets. Leveraging new tools, proprietary data and deep expertise, the Markets research team delivers highly valued market analysis on a daily basis to the world’s leading institutional investors. Join Street Signals" host, Tim Graf, State Street’s Head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, as he discusses the most important matters moving markets with guests from State

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All Episodes

26:20

Summer Volatility Is Back – Will It Last?

Street Signals ·

2024/08/08

The volatility of the last two weeks can be ascribed to many events and raises more questions than answers. Was it a clear-out of crowded positions in illiquid summer markets or the early stage of a systemic financial event? Is the US economy’s soft landing still on track? Will recent moves in equities, rates and FX now reverse or form new trends? Peter Vincent, our head trading in London, joins the podcast to try and answer those questions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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25:38

Market Rotation: Healthy or Harmful?

Street Signals ·

2024/08/01

Quiet summer markets were disrupted recently by sharp moves in equities, as the long-standing strength of IT and communication stocks gave way to a surge in valuations for smaller companies. Such price action can be healthy. But where past episodes of market rotation came in a rising market, as volatility fell, the recent rotation in stocks came with wider ranges, higher volatility and a retreat in overall market performance. With stocks still close to all-time highs, we ask Cayla Seder from our

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27:23

Conviction Views for Quiet Markets

Street Signals ·

2024/07/25

Summer lulls in market activity are common, but this year's calm is unique. Interest rate, FX and volatility markets are rangebound despite jarring headlines and upheavals in politics, and the potential for binary market outcomes in response. The search for high conviction views seems more difficult than normal. That makes it a good time to get the perspective from someone with a day job of managing risk. This week, we speak with Dan Mazza, head of our US FX forwards desk, on where he sees interest

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34:34

A Mid-Year Report Card for Emerging Markets

Street Signals ·

2024/07/18

At the end of 2023, attractive yields and valuations on emerging market assets and currencies made for many consensus long calls from sell-side strategists. Many of those views played out for much of the first half of 2024. And even some of the political and electoral obstacles to performance proved to be short lived, such is the institutional credibility that has strengthened in many developing economies over the last ten years. Dwyfor Evans, our head of emerging markets strategy, joins the podcast

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29:32

US Inflation Explained: Where We've Been and Where...

Street Signals ·

2024/07/11

Trends in US inflation have been, are and will be one of the critical drivers of markets. After a bumpy first quarter, fears of an inflationary spiral are cooling once more and, with the US labor market also showing signs of softness, the Federal Reserve sounds increasingly ready to ease policy as a consequence. But election year politics and stubbornly volatile consumer inflation expectations complicate matters. This week - on US CPI day of all days - Michael Metcalfe, our global head of macro

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31:28

Toby Nangle: Asset Allocation in a High-Rate Era

Street Signals ·

2024/07/02

Higher yields change the game for asset allocators around the world, with pensions in particular now able to better match liabilities to assets. In the UK specifically, 20 years of previously persistent trends in asset allocations now require a reassessment. And this week’s general election carries with it a potential expansion of the investor’s opportunity set. To unpack what can be a very opaque and complicated investing landscape, this week’s guest, Toby Nangle, an independent analyst and

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43:54

Dan Drezner: Financial Markets and the Road to the...

Street Signals ·

2024/06/27

This evening's Presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump kick starts a campaign season that, so far, has been a formality and failed to spark much attention in either the electorate or the market. Polling margins between the candidates are razor thin and many of the usual rules of thumb to forecast elections don't seem to apply anymore. To help us unpack the narrative and offer insights drawn from years of political analysis, we were fortunate enough to host our newest research partner,

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42:55

Helen Thomas: The 2024 UK General Election and the...

Street Signals ·

2024/06/18

After 14 years of Conservative government, the upcoming UK General Election on 4 July will bring seismic change. From both the left and the right, the Conservatives now face a threat. The Labour Party look likely to win a large majority and form a government, but are constrained in their ambitions by fiscal realities. What does it mean for the UK economy and markets? Helen Thomas, Founder and CEO of Blonde Money, joins us with a fascinating and comprehensive overview of how we got here, why the

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36:59

The 2024 Election Super Cycle

Street Signals ·

2024/06/13

With elections in 63 countries, representing 40% of global population and GDP, the democratic process will see few years like 2024. The US election looms largest, with implications for a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait and ongoing wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, all of which feed back into the involved economies and global financial markets. This week, from the sidelines of our Research Retreat in Boston, we catch up with Iris Malone, PhD and Director in AI and Data Science at GeoQuant,

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32:24

Shark Tank 2024: The Best Trade Ideas for the Rest of...

Street Signals ·

2024/06/06

This week, we kick off a series of podcasts recorded at or on the sidelines of our 2024 Research Retreats, taking place across North America, Europe and Asia over the next four weeks. And we do so live, without a net, for the very first time, and in front of an audience to boot. Three members of the Macro Strategy Team at State Street Global Markets present their top picks for how to play markets over the rest of the year. Dan Gerard, Marvin Loh and Ning Sun make their respective cases to the

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34:42

China and India: A Year of Transition

Street Signals ·

2024/05/30

China and India contribute more than a third to global population, but still only account for a quarter of global output. So, as their economies mature and their markets open more to outside investment, their respective growth and inflation stories increasingly matter for global investors. Flow dynamics are of particular interest, given the equity markets in both economies have been underinvested in for years. And, with the Chinese renminbi a low-yielding currency and the Indian rupee a

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43:08

Harley Bassman: What One-And-Done From the Fed Means...

Street Signals ·

2024/05/23

Markets are back to all-time highs and volatility is normalizing, with the rate outlook for the remainder of the year coming into clearer focus. Is it too much of a good thing? Who better to ask than bond market guru, the creator of the MOVE index of implied interest rate volatility and managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, Harley Bassman. This week's conversation explores the Fed's easing cycle, the shift in policymakers' focus from inflation to the labor market and the overlooked

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44:48

Mark Sobel: Currency Diplomacy and Dollar Dominance

Street Signals ·

2024/05/16

Dynamics in today's currency markets are informed by historic events and trends that shaped the structure and of the global economy. Building on a lifetime of experience in formulating currency policy at the US Department of the Treasury and as US representative to the IMF, Mark Sobel, US Chairman at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), joins the podcast to discuss many of the most far-reaching and relevant themes driving FX markets today. He details his thinking on the

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32:29

Consumer Concerns: What Are Earnings Telling Us?

Street Signals ·

2024/05/09

Outside of the Magnificent 7 tech stocks, profit warnings and unsettling forward guidance through Q1 earnings season have sparked a re-assessment of demand resilience. Commentary from consumer-oriented firms about waning pricing power and tighter margins looks troubling. Marija Veitmane, our head of equity strategy, returns with her take on a bifurcated earnings environment, where tech still trumps all but the outlook for consumer stocks, banks and sector rotation strategies is murkier. Peter

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21:47

Searching for Safe Havens

Street Signals ·

2024/05/02

April brought a reality check to markets after a stellar Q1, sparking demand for safety across assets and currencies. The higher for longer rate environment, together with signs of slowing growth and sticky inflation, gives rise to thoughts of future weakness in risk assets. Naturally, investors begin to question where best to take shelter. Are traditional safe havens as effective as they have been in past cycles? How do US Treasuries, the dollar and yen, long the stalwarts of safety, stack up? This

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32:54

Are Rate Hikes Back On The Table?

Street Signals ·

2024/04/25

Lee Ferridge returns to the podcast to give his latest take on FX, interest rate and risk markets. Ever the road warrior, we focus first on the consensus and conviction calls from the dozens of client meetings Lee has done in recent weeks, before tackling the questions we are all contemplating in macro markets could the Fed's next move actually be a hike? Can the risk rally resume if that's the case? Is there any room for further rate divergence across G10? Long or short JPY? Is the carry trade

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50:25

Claudia Sahm: The US Consumer, Inflation and the...

Street Signals ·

2024/04/18

The US labor market and consumer continue to defy expectations of slowing, yet we are encouraged to believe that monetary policy is in restrictive territory. Why is that? On this week's podcast, we are thrilled to speak to Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist of New Century Advisers, founder of Sahm Consulting and developer of the renowned 'Sahm Rule', a widely observed and often misunderstood recession indicator. The conversation covers the forces driving the resilient consumer, how labor shortages and

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33:05

Can China Avoid the Japan Trap?

Street Signals ·

2024/04/11

Similar to Japan in the 1990s, China faces twin headwinds of excessive debt deleveraging and demographic deterioration, with the addition of a multi-year pandemic and its aftermath making these already considerable burdens even more challenging. Can the world's once-reliable engine for growth avoid a similar fate of disinflation and relative decline? The hurdles are high but the comparison is not entirely apples-to-apples. China's fate is not sealed, possessing key advantages in rebuilding their

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23:01

View From The Trading Desk: After A Stellar Q1, What...

Street Signals ·

2024/04/04

It was a great first quarter for risky assets and carry trades, perhaps surprisingly, given recent economic data and events have actually offered a few surprises. Yet rotation within equity markets and the stability of relative rate expectations kept volatility at bay. After a rockier first few days, will Q2 offer a change in sentiment? This week, we welcome Bill Walsh, head of our FX trading desk in the Americas, back to the podcast to offer his thoughts on a wide array of topics. Inflation, the

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31:25

Alberto Cavallo: Are We At An Inflation Inflection...

Street Signals ·

2024/03/28

A turn higher in inflation carries with it the potential to disrupt the current easing plans of central banks and create volatility, in similar fashion to the market upsets that recurred throughout 2022. The evidence in the official data is mixed, and this week, we have a genuine expert to help us answer the question of whether inflation, having cooled somewhat, is in danger of rising once more. Alberto Cavallo, professor at Harvard Business School and co-founder of PriceStats, one of our research

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118 results

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