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PODCAST

Eurodollar University

Jeff Snider will guide you through the realm of monetary science. Multiple episodes uploaded each week, discussing big news and key current events, the state of markets and what they are telling you, as well as historical summaries and deep background material so that you can understand what’s really going on in this eurodollar’s world.

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All Episodes

18:52

WARNING: The Yield Curve JUST Signaled The Worst Case...

Eurodollar University ·

2024/01/14

EDU's Guide to What A Collateral Shortage Looks LikeLink Here: https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateralA big move in short-term rates especially the critical 2-year UST has yield curves closing in on un-inversion. That is a critical threshold and unlike a few months ago it is unfolding in the "bull" direction. It is very important to understand what is happening and why it really matters. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter:

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20:22

If You Want To Predict Where Inflation Will Go In...

Eurodollar University ·

2024/01/12

Consumer prices accelerated in December, so that means the term "transitory disinflation" will be out in full force for the third time in a year. The risk of actual inflation, however, remains incredibly low to non-existent regardless of what that term implies. And that's easily established by the growing mountain of evidence and a host of clear historical parallels. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBLS CPI Press Release Jan 11,

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21:13

What These MASSIVE Repo Fails Mean For The Markets

Eurodollar University ·

2024/01/11

EDU's Guide to What A Collateral Shortage Looks LikeLink Here: https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateralSo, there were a whole lot of repo fails at the end of December. What does that mean? What are repo fails? They are often fickle and fleeting, but they can tell us something very important about just what we want to know where it comes to the beating heart of the global monetary system. Decoding fails is actually pretty easy with a little bit of knowledge and history. Eurodollar

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20:06

Bonds Just Made A Historic Move, Now What?

Eurodollar University ·

2024/01/10

The recent bond rally - which may not be over - was one for the books. The 10-year US Treasury dropped nearly 120 bps off its yield in only 47 trading days. A move that big and that fast for the 10s had only happened six other times over the last three decades. We'll go over what that means and what it can tell us about where we go from here; bonds and everything else. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter:

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20:01

Its Starting: The Repo Market Is Failing?!

Eurodollar University ·

2024/01/09

EDU's Guide to What A Collateral Shortage Looks LikeLink Here: https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateralWhile everyone was looking into year-end SOFR, real money stuff went haywire. Repo fails absolutely surged and swap spreads collapsed more than they had already. Dealers are hoarding Treasuries at the same time where banks are hitting up the Fed's BTFP. What do all of these and others mean, including the BTFP? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIOSCO/CPSS Securities

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18:52

This Is The *All At Once* Moment

Eurodollar University ·

2024/01/08

Friday delivered labor market body blows to the soft landing's chances. Friday was filled with labor market data that isn't leaving us any gray area. The evidence continues to stack up and in more convincing fashion the US economy bonds were right. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts

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18:32

This is The 3rd Worst EVER (This Has Only Been...

Eurodollar University ·

2024/01/07

Full interview with Mr. Milkshake, Brent Johnson, on eurodollar (not dollar) dominance:https://funnel.eurodollar.university/dollarWhile many cheered another payroll number, in reality the labor data were a complete trainwreck. The Household Survey's measure of employment plunged and full-time jobs crashed by an almost record amount during December. What's the meaning behind this bevy of increasingly grim numbers?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter:

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19:52

Does This New Data Show I Am Wrong About A Recession?

Eurodollar University ·

2024/01/05

Payrolls are positive. The unemployment rate is incredibly low. Stocks are soaring. What recession? Furthermore, we've been talking about one for so long it is more than understandable why people have tuned it out. But how could we know the recession call is wrong? It isn't just the continued lack of layoffs. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession

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18:39

Companies Are Now REFUSING To Hire Employees

Eurodollar University ·

2024/01/04

The level of hiring in the US has collapsed in a way we haven't seen since 2008 and 2009 (outside the pandemic lockdowns). JOLTS survey results show the largest 6-month decline in hiring of any same-sized period over the entire 21st century (ex. '20). The labor market is more than halfway into recession; but what about that other half?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays:

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18:30

This is BY FAR The Biggest Risk To The Global Economy

Eurodollar University ·

2024/01/03

China's 'president' Xi Jinping made a startling admission in his New Year address. For the first time he said the economy struggled last year. The confession merely underscores the difficulties the country is currently facing and has so far been unable to surmount. But why? As more data pours in, we see how the answer to that question isn't actually Chinese. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFull text of President Xi Jinping's 2024 New Year

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21:58

Why We Are NOT Going Into A 1970s Type Of Inflation

Eurodollar University ·

2024/01/02

For quite a while there, you couldn't go long without hearing about how the 2020s were about to repeat the 1970s. That was never any real risk, but why? What is inflation? Where does it actually come from (spoiler: not the Fed)? Most important of all, how can we tell? The answer to all those questions are painfully clear, but once more Economics has the public thinking only backwards.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter:

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21:50

What Really Happened In 2008? (It's NOT What You've...

Eurodollar University ·

2023/12/31

Last Chance for Christmas Sale https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1What's the difference between financial and monetary crisis? Everything. Whether anyone knows it or not, we continue to live in the long shadows of 2008. They are deflationary more than anything, too, a Silent Depression that so long as we remain stuck in it will make the 2020s into something more like the 2010s. That's not good. Getting out starts with finally a proper accounting of 15 years ago. Eurodollar

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18:29

Why Stocks Are Up When Everything Else Looks Bad

Eurodollar University ·

2023/12/30

Bond yields have plunged and not just US Treasuries. Yet, stocks are sitting at or above all-time highs. In fact, the two seem to be related at least in the short run. The bond rally began in late October and the stock surge followed a week later. But what bonds are suggesting wouldn't be good for stocks. So, what are stocks really doing?Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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20:04

Watch This Before The Fed Cuts Rates

Eurodollar University ·

2023/12/29

Only a few days left for EDU's Christmas Sale, memberships, and research subscriptions. https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1What happens when the Fed really pivots and starts cutting rates? We know what's supposed to happen, though it never does. Before we get into the history of rate cut programs, we first have to understand why "monetary" policy targets interest rates in the first place. Once we do that it's easy to see why rate cuts are all hype. Eurodollar University's Money

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19:22

This ONLY Happens Before Sh*t Hits The Fan

Eurodollar University ·

2023/12/28

Does any of this stuff matter? If you stand back and look at this year, all of these weird financial indications may not have appeared to make any difference. The US economy, in particular, seems just fine if not better than fine. They haven't been any more bank failures. Yet, bond yields are crashing here, which is not something to ignore. What we're doing with Euro$ data is trying to assess the health of the monetary system to see if there might indeed be "something" there. Eurodollar

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18:48

The Real Reason The Fed Is Pivoting?!

Eurodollar University ·

2023/12/27

Still time left for EDU's Christmas Sale, memberships and research subscriptions. https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1In a very important and very real sense, the Fed has already pivoted by embracing the recent and sharp decline in market interest rates. Why? In a word, insurance. Along with other crucial concerns, officials are no longer so sure the soft landing is on track. Since central bankers and Economists believe lower rates are "accommodative", they believe a pivot could

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19:50

This Is One Of The MOST Important Signals In ALL of...

Eurodollar University ·

2023/12/22

The conversation with Brent Johnson on eurodollar dominancehttps://funnel.eurodollar.university/dollarChristmas Sale at EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1When the dollar goes up it is one of the simplest yet most critical warning signs in all finance. Most people are told it is because of the Fed and its rate policies. The last couple years have made it appear like that's actually the case. Instead, the evidence conclusively shows the real culprit behind the dollar's

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19:31

Another MAJOR Central Bank Just Pivoted

Eurodollar University ·

2023/12/21

Christmas Sale at EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1Whether they want to admit it now or not, Jay Powell completely changed his tune in a matter of less than two weeks. What's more, another major central bank seems to have done the same thing and during the same two week timeframe. What the hell is going on changing all these hawks not to doves but increasingly chickens? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC The Bank of Japan just shocked markets with a

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17:50

Is This The Black Swan Event The Fed Is Preparing For?!

Eurodollar University ·

2023/12/20

Christmas Sale at EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1There are several reasons why suddenly the Fed has apparently accepted market rates going sharply lower. The soft landing scenario might be in greater jeopardy than recent data indicates - or it might more likely come from outside the US. Our focus here, however, is on the financial. What if conditions in the CRE market we all know is going to be a huge problem have started to come to a head? If so, that would get the FOMC's

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19:28

The True Scale of The Global Dollar Shortage

Eurodollar University ·

2023/12/19

Christmas Sale at EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1What's the difference between a dollar short and a dollar shortage? The one actually comes from the needs of the other. To understand them both, you have to consider what a reserve currency really is - and what it is not- and how it is supposed to do its job. We're left considering only a range of bad options given those constraints. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter:

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