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PODCAST

Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast

In this podcast, John & Sam exchange perspectives on current events that are impacting our economy and influencing investment strategies. Trading Perspectives is hosted by Oakworth Capital Bank"s Chief Investment Officer, John Norris along with Sam Clement, Associate Managing Director. *Oakworth Asset Management is a registered investment advisor. All advisory services, including investment management and financial planning, are offered through Oakworth Asset Management, LLC, which is owned by

business investing

All Episodes

21:44

The End of Higher Rates - For Now

Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast ·

2023/12/14

This week, central banks across the world essentially said their collective fight against inflation was over. In the United States, the Fed’s own data suggested it would start cutting the overnight rate roughly 3 times in 2024. Couple that with Fed Chairman Powell’s dovish comments about inflation, and investors took it as the end of this tightening cycle. However, this begs the questions: 1) is inflation really dead, and; 2) did the Fed do the right thing? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam

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23:21

College Football Tomfoolery?

Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast ·

2023/12/06

This past weekend, the CFP Committee chose its Top 4 teams to participate for the national championship. But were they the best, let alone the most deserving teams? Is there any real difference between the best and the most deserving? Or did the committee simply make a business decision? After all, money talks, and it always has. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss the upcoming college football playoffs, and ask the question: are the Top 4 teams participating or are the Top 4

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23:01

The Global Shift to the Right?

Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast ·

2023/11/29

After surprising right-wing victories in elections in Argentina and the Netherlands, pundits have noticed there seems to be a growing trend towards nationalism, especially in Europe. While some outlets blame record immigration levels for this change in sentiment, the causes could also be economic. After all, has globalism produced the economic benefits in Europe or South America that its supporters claimed it would? That is a good question. What if it is a combination of the two? After all, when

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19:57

Bringing AI Back to the Front Page

Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast ·

2023/11/22

This past week, the board of directors at OpenAI abruptly terminated co-founder and CEO Sam Altman. This came as a shock to just about everyone but the board itself. However, it reopened the conversation about AI and its potential future impact on, well, everything. That it has the potential to fundamentally change our lives and conduct business is without question. However, who will benefit the most? Who will adapt the quickest? Who won’t adapt at all? Are there any generational differences? In

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23:49

Is America's Influence Declining?

Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast ·

2023/11/15

Depending on to whom you are talking, America’s global influence is either plummeting or slowly decreasing. Regardless, it seems no one feels the US is in ascendency. How did this come about and what are the reasons? Further, what does it mean for the US economy, if anything at all? Does it matter if the US is no longer the world’s policeman, but is still a major economic force? Are there any generational differences of opinion? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John welcome Sidney Fry to

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20:34

When Will the Consumer Quit Complaining?

Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast ·

2023/11/08

Although analysts keep saying inflation is coming down, prices at the store certainly aren’t. This is the difference between relativity and absolutism. Although prices have been elevated for a while, consumers continue to have sticker shock. So, how much longer will it be before the average U.S. consumer accepts higher prices are here to stay and move on? While it be next year, 2025 or never? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss higher prices and when the U.S. consumer will quit

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20:50

How Are We Going to Buy for Everything?

Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast ·

2023/10/25

As everyone knows, Washington is already running eye-watering deficits. What happens when the U.S. has to significantly increase defense expenditures in order to fulfill our global promises? Couple that with an apparent unwillingness to address runaway entitlements programs, and how is the Treasury going to pay for it all? At least at current interest rates? Simply put, it isn’t. At some point in the not so distant future, the Federal Reserve is going to have to stop reducing its balance sheet and

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21:21

How Weight Loss Impacts the Economy

Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast ·

2023/10/19

Recently, consumers have been using drugs approved to treat diabetes to lose weight. Depending on the person, the results can be significant. Further, it seems people using these drugs for weight loss often change their consumption patterns, at least to some degree. While this is obvious great news for a country struggling with obesity, what does it mean to companies and economic sectors which depend on Americans being fat? There is real money at stake. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and

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23:50

Turmoil in the Middle East

Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast ·

2023/10/12

Last weekend, Hamas unleashed a coordinated military attack against southern Israel, catching the latter off guard. While the world’s leaders have condemned the attack, social media message boards and websites aren’t anywhere close to being one-sided for the Israelis. Far from it. Since young people are more apt to use social media, is there a generational divide in public support for Israel? If so, what has caused it and what does it mean if the situation escalates? In this week’s Trading

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23:38

How Much Higher Will Rates Go?

Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast ·

2023/10/05

Long-term interest rates have climbed dramatically over the last two months. This has negatively impacted bond and stock investors. However, many people fear they have higher still to go. After all, Washington keeps running massive deficits. The Federal Reserve and foreign investors aren’t buying as many Treasuries securities, and domestic investors want a high real rate of return. Then there is the current mess in Washington. So, just how much higher will rates go before people start gobbling them

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24:12

Are EV Dreams a Nightmare?

Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast ·

2023/09/27

This week, Ford announced plans to pause production on an electric vehicle battery assembly plant in Michigan. This was due to political pushback stemming from the realization that Ford was going to license the necessary technology from the Chinese firm CATL. However, given how far behind the US is in EV battery technology and supply-chain sourcing, is it realistic to imagine the Big Three expanding its EV production without technical assistance from China? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam

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23:33

How Many Strikes Are In An Out?

Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast ·

2023/09/21

The division between labor and management seems to be growing around the world. From railway workers in Sri Lanka to doctors in the U.K. to screenwriters in Hollywood to autoworkers in the Midwest. Does it make sense? Or do those on strike not fully understand the bigger picture, even if they might have a legitimate grief? After all, telephone operators probably had gripes too. In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John discuss various strikes around the world, but focus on those closer to

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22:41

Will Inflation Eat Your Wallet?

Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast ·

2023/09/14

Recent sharp increases in energy prices have caused pain at the pump and pushed the inflation gauges higher. Couple this with student loan repayments, and what, then, is the state of the U.S. consumer heading into the holiday shopping season? When things get tight, what gets the ax? Is it travel? The movies? Restaurants? Or is everyone different? Further, what impact would this have on overall U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)? Basically, how much will this recent uptick in inflation drive down real

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22:07

Student Debt Payback Blowout!

Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast ·

2023/09/06

After years of pandemic-related moratoriums on the repayment of student loan debt, the clock has finally stopped ticking. Unless something dramatic happens, people will have to start paying back what they have borrowed. Have they budgeted for it? Not likely. If they haven’t, what expenditures get the ax? Essentially, what can younger people cut out of a monthly budget when there is a serious need for cash? In this week’s Trading Perspective’s, Sam and John welcome another member of Generation-Z to

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24:31

COVID. Come Again?

Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast ·

2023/08/30

It seems COVID is rearing its ugly head again. As a result, more and more people are wearing masks in public and consciously keeping their distance from others. It begs the question: what would the public’s response be to future mask mandates, economic shutdowns and shelter in place orders? Would we acquiesce as quickly as we did in 2020? Or will people push back on the government this time around? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam and John talk about the potential for a return of pandemic

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22:21

Are High Interest Rates as Bad as Advertised?

Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast ·

2023/08/23

Everyone knows lower interest rates are supposed to stimulate economic growth. If that is the case, the inverse must also be true. However, is that really the truth? After all, the Japanese have had manufactured low interest rates for almost three decades, and where has the growth been? The same could be said for the Europeans over the last decade or so. Shoot, even the American economy seemed to be weaker than it should have been with artificially low rates. This begs the counterintuitive question:

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22:51

Who is Going to Buy Our Debt?

Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast ·

2023/08/16

The Chinese have been reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury securities. The Federal Reserve has stopped adding huge amounts to its balance sheet. However, Washington will still have to borrow trillions of dollars over the next decade. Will we be able to finance at 4% if the Chinese and the Fed are on the sideline? What will individual U.S. investors need to see before they go back to bonds? 5% 6% or higher? It seems higher interest rates are here to stay, but just how high is high? In this week’s

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21:43

The Dog Days of Summer Have Finally Arrived

Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast ·

2023/08/10

After a positive July, the dog days of summer have shown up in August. The heat has been oppressive, Fitch downgraded U.S. Treasury debt, Moody’s downgraded the banks and the tech stocks have fallen apart. Is it time to worry? In this week’s Trading Perspectives, Sam, John and special guest Grace Schlenker discuss why things seem to be boiling over during the hottest time of the year.

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22:56

They Downgraded the Nation's Debt. So What?

Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast ·

2023/08/03

This week, the Fitch Rating organization downgraded U.S. Treasury debt from its highest rating of AAA to AA+. But what did it accomplish? Is the U.S. Treasury market no longer the world’s most liquid? Is the U.S. dollar no longer the world’s primary reserve currency? Did the U.S. financial system suddenly become more opaque? Is the U.S. Treasury in danger of defaulting on its debt? Or is the bigger issue Washington’s inefficiency in spending money that it will eventually have to repay? Further, does

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24:07

Barbie Movie Magic?

Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast ·

2023/07/26

For much of 2023, commentators have been wondering about the health of the domestic movie industry. Actor and screenwriter strikes aside, a lot of tried-and-true formulas weren’t performing as well as the studios wanted. Was this a change in consumer preferences? Had streaming killed the movies? Or were viewers just bored? Then came along a strange combination of the world’s most famous plastic doll and “the father of the atomic bomb.” Did Barbenheimer save Hollywood? In this week’s Trading

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