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PODCAST

Eurodollar University

Jeff Snider will guide you through the realm of monetary science. Multiple episodes uploaded each week, discussing big news and key current events, the state of markets and what they are telling you, as well as historical summaries and deep background material so that you can understand what’s really going on in this eurodollar’s world.

business investing

All Episodes

18:22

Huge misses, weakness across-the-board show...

Eurodollar University ·

2023/05/17

China's reopening is dead and buried. The country's government reported truly sobering economic data that proved beyond any doubt there is nothing left to it. Worse, much of that same data showed the global economy is in big trouble as fallout from events over the last few months are, unfortunately, already producing results. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg: China Leaders Surprised by Pace of Economy’s

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18:35

Shocking reasons these crucial indications are down...

Eurodollar University ·

2023/05/16

Forward rates and forward rate spreads have substantially deteriorated since March. They were already more inverted than at any time in 2007 leading up to 2008. How could they be so much worse in 2023? You have to understand what forward rate spreads are telling us and why.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFOMC Transcript; June 2007https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20070628meeting.pdfBen Bernanke Congress Testimony; March

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18:58

May reports show consumers, small businesses facing...

Eurodollar University ·

2023/05/15

Consumer confidence fell sharply in two recent surveys, as recession fears and banking woes deepen rather than fade. Small businesses facing the same pressures are beginning to crack, too, as the initial stages of contraction take shape. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van MetreTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityhttps://www.marketsinsiderpro.comhttps://www.PortfolioShield.netRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7THE

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18:25

They keep pushing rate hikes and short sellers as...

Eurodollar University ·

2023/05/14

Because so many of us focus so much on US banks, and US banks are making it easy to do this, it's also easy to lose sight of the fact this crisis is far from limited to the United States and a few of its banks. There are global elements at work. One we can see emerging in Sweden, and another in China we've been watching for a long time. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter:

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18:36

We have a very good - better than very good - idea...

Eurodollar University ·

2023/05/12

As expected, not only is another bank in danger of failing, they're blaming short sellers for it. Jamie Dimon made the ridiculous comments today as major market swings leave little doubt where all this is going. And if that wasn't enough, more big data to corroborate. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityhttps://www.marketsinsiderpro.comhttps://www.PortfolioShield.netRealClearMarkets Essays:

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18:30

The problem isn't just bank failures. What is causing...

Eurodollar University ·

2023/05/11

Deflationary money leads to a deflationary economy which has to be disinflationary first. We keep getting "anomalies" in the monetary system (interest rate swaps and collateral) including another one this week. April's CPI already shows disinflation and more creeping into the US economy - particularly services. The two of these together will lead to falling CPIs...and more. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter:

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17:34

Big global problems behind lower oil prices, from US...

Eurodollar University ·

2023/05/10

The Chinese reported renewed declines for their imports, including a big one in crude oil. When OPEC announced production cuts, they could see China wasn't living up to reopening hype and the latest data absolutely confirms it (while driving a stake in the narrative). Not only are steelmakers there urging production cuts, too, US bank credit is about to become lights out if only to make things even worse. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter:

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18:01

Banking crisis isn't just US regional banks. Europe's...

Eurodollar University ·

2023/05/09

Bad steepening in global curves from Treasuries to German bunds even French Obligations assimilables du Trésor (OATs). Regional banks have gotten all the attention though European banks have been experiencing serious deposit (therefore wholesale) trouble for longer. And maybe worse, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisECB M3 Press Releasehttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/stats/md/html/ecb.md2303~5a86c581c4.en.htmlTwitter:

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18:12

The alarming dollar connections between oil plunge...

Eurodollar University ·

2023/05/08

It was not a good week for long oil traders or those betting on the economy and inflation. Prices were down huge Monday and Tuesday last week before suffering a flash crash Wednesday/Thursday. These together implicate bad liquidity as much as bad economy. As does the utter and worrisome collapse in Germany's goods sectors. Eurodollar University's Weekly Conversation w/Steve Van MetreBloomberg: Oil’s Dramatic Open Leaves Traders Puzzled After WTI

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18:13

Big downward revisions to prior months payrolls plus...

Eurodollar University ·

2023/05/07

The April payroll report came out and the topline figure was far from terrible. Some might say it was pretty darn good. As usual, it is the rest of the employment numbers that tell the story. Whatever the payroll figure, there aren't any hours. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityhttps://www.marketsinsiderpro.comhttps://www.PortfolioShield.netRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7THE

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18:25

Conditions have rapidly deteriorated. Bad steepening...

Eurodollar University ·

2023/05/05

Both the Fed and ECB hiked rates this week (in successive days), each claiming inflation is still their greatest threat. German and Treasury markets didn't care one bit, altogether pricing unmistakable deflationary dangers that aren't in the future. They're happening right now. As one consequence, central banks are now priced to turn around into cuts by mid-summer. Maybe even late spring. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFRB Chair Jay Powell May 2023 Press

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18:30

Everyone now betting on the avalanche as crisis...

Eurodollar University ·

2023/05/04

Who cares about the Fed's (final) rate hike? You shouldn't. While chasing inflation risks that don't exist, instead markets are hedged and priced for serious deflation ahead. All the signs, all the history and basic economics conclusively point toward worse ahead.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBill Gross: Bull Market in Bonds Is Overhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-MBB-1297Minutes FOMC Meeting July-Aug

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18:36

Bad banks. Bad data. Bad curves. Bad everything today...

Eurodollar University ·

2023/05/03

Despite some relative calm yesterday after First Republic's failure, today was anything but as huge hedging in markets along with more turmoil in the broader banking sector. Bad economic data around the world reinforces the dangers of the 2008-style that continues to unfold right in front of us.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBberg: First Republic’s Demise Fails to Mark the All-Clear on

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18:14

Deflationary fallout begins to emerge in this one...

Eurodollar University ·

2023/05/02

Deflationary fallout has become visible and almost unmistakable in the one place which was supposed to save us from that very outcome. China's economy is getting weaker and even stock market investors are getting out and running for the exits. Not just China, but already spilling over to its closer partners. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisChina NBS Press Releasehttp://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/sjjd/202304/t20230429_1939137.htmlDarkening Gloom in Chinese Stocks Puzzles Wall

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19:20

What it it's not just one or two, but all of them?...

Eurodollar University ·

2023/05/01

Another major US bank failed - First Republic - and the markets barely moved because this is all in the context of deflationary money. If so, we know where this is going. For interest rates and the overall economy.Eurodollar University's Weekly Conversations w/Steve Van MetreTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityhttps://www.marketsinsiderpro.comhttps://www.PortfolioShield.netRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7THE EPISODESYouTube:

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18:47

There is a lot more going on here than just one, no...

Eurodollar University ·

2023/04/30

First Republic finally fails and on the same day the Fed's report on SVB is released. It says SVB was on outlier, a loner. But that only raises more questions given what happened to First Republic (or Credit Suisse). The only place to find answers is from within the monetary system itself. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisReview of the Federal Reserve’s Supervision and Regulation of Silicon Valley

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18:22

We haven't seen anything like these in a couple...

Eurodollar University ·

2023/04/28

Both the yield curve's 3-month/10-year spread and the Fed's near term forward spread have nose-dived in April. The former by far at a record extreme (for modern USTs), the latter worst since the early 80s. You have to start from these in order to understand current data, the current situation, as well as what the official story will be about both. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter:

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18:06

We're about to become a lot poorer and worse off....

Eurodollar University ·

2023/04/27

Bank of England's Chief Economist tells Columbia University podcast that people need to accept that they're poorer and worse off, and to stop trying to do anything about it because they're getting in the way of central bankers attempting to fix a mess they can't seem to fix. While they're afraid of a wage-price spiral there's no evidence they should be afraid of, the costs of the past few years are coming due in a much worse way.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisColumbia Law

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18:09

Fear grips markets as participants realize nothing...

Eurodollar University ·

2023/04/26

Major buying the curves has pushed them back down to and even below the worst points since mid-March. Markets have never been more certain about what's coming and why. Since eurodollar futures are no more, we'll have to depend on 3-month SOFR futures from here on. And right here they're beyond pessimistic. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg: Hedge Funds Place Biggest Ever Short on Benchmark

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19:42

New data shows eruption from banking crisis. The gory...

Eurodollar University ·

2023/04/25

The transmission from deflationary money to a deflationary economy was always going to come from a credit crunch. Updated data shows the banking system remains in a critical state which means taking proactive steps to freeze their collective activities in broad fashion. So much, even the mainstream media is reporting the gory details. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisA Corporate Credit Crunch Is Just Getting

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1,370 results

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