Love Doves! This Zany Audio Tidbit features a BNP exclusive sneak preview of the riveting, illuminating and transformational 2024 U.S. Presidential Debates currently barreling our way, like a slow-motion pre-recorded train wreck. Aren't we lucky?? The fabulous Illusion of Choice in our awesome Two Party Duopoly effing rules!! Late-stage capitalist bread n circuses for life! Wooot!! I mean, come on, this match up was already so amazing just 4 short years ago!! I can't wait to watch these ...

Paine.tvYour Private Intel Operation.

Preamble: Delta vs CruxThis section is redundant if you already read My AI Model Delta Compared To Yudkowsky.I don’t natively think in terms of cruxes. But there's a similar concept which is more natural for me, which I’ll call a delta.Imagine that you and I each model the world (or some part of it) as implementing some program. Very oversimplified example: if I learn that e.g. it's cloudy today, that means the “weather” variable in my program at a particular time[1] takes on the value “clou...

Preamble: Delta vs CruxI don’t natively think in terms of cruxes. But there's a similar concept which is more natural for me, which I’ll call a delta.Imagine that you and I each model the world (or some part of it) as implementing some program. Very oversimplified example: if I learn that e.g. it's cloudy today, that means the “weather” variable in my program at a particular time[1] takes on the value “cloudy”. Now, suppose your program and my program are exactly the same, except that somewh...

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Crossposted from the AI Alignment Forum. May contain more technical jargon than usual.As an AI researcher who wants to do technical work that helps humanity, there is a strong drive to find a research area that is definitely helpful somehow, so that you don’t have to worry about how your work will be applied, and thus you don’t have to worry about things like corporate ethics or geopolitics to make sure your work benefits humanity.Unfortunately, no such field exists. In particular, technical AI

This is a link post. I previously included a link to this as part of my trilogy on anti-philanthropic misdirection, but a commenter asked me to post the full text here for the automated audio conversion. Apologies to anyone who has already read it. As I wrote in ‘Why Not Effective Altruism?’, I find the extreme hostility towards effective altruism from some quarters to be rather baffling. Group evaluations can be vexing: perhaps what the critics have in mind when they hate on EA has little or no

Research Status: Written & researched quickly. I think the key point is fairly simple and obvious. I relied on Claude to help with rewriting. There's been a growing interest in predicting when various products or jobs will be "fully automated." Will we soon have popular movies, books, or even CEOs that are entirely AI-generated? Some very quickly-found links: - https://manifold.markets/ChaseStevens/will-an-aigenerated-paper-be-accept -

Crossposted on my blog. When I was at Manifest, Austin Chen said something interesting to me: that one thing that he liked about my blog was that I was proud to be an effective altruist. I didn’t treat it as an embarrassing quirk, but as something that's actively good, that's worth encouraging. A lot of EAs don’t do this, which I think is sad. Scott Alexander amusingly quips: I hate having to post criticism of EA. Not because EA is bad at taking criticism. The opposite: they like it too much. It

This post is for EAs at the start of their careers who are considering which organisations to apply to, and their next steps in general. Conclusion up front: It can be really hard to get that first job out of university. If you don’t get your top picks, your less exciting backup options can still be great for having a highly impactful career. If those first few years of work experience aren’t your best pick, they will still be useful as a place where you can ‘learn how to job’, save some money, and

As an AI researcher who wants to do technical work that helps humanity, there is a strong drive to find a research area that is definitely helpful somehow, so that you don’t have to worry about how your work will be applied, and thus you don’t have to worry about things like corporate ethics or geopolitics to make sure your work benefits humanity. Unfortunately, no such field exists. In particular, technical AI alignment is not such a field, and technical AI safety is not such a field. It

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This is a link post. microwave drilling startupsI've seen a bunch of articles about startups trying to do microwave drilling of rock for geothermal energy. Multiple people have asked me about Quaise Energy. (Here's a popular video.) I'm tired of hearing about them, so I'm writing this post to explain some of the reasons why their idea is impractical. vaporized rock condenses When rock is vaporized, that rock vapor doesn't just disappear. What happens to it? The answer is, it would quickly condense

Preamble: Delta vs CruxThis section is redundant if you already read My AI Model Delta Compared To Yudkowsky.I don’t natively think in terms of cruxes. But there's a similar concept which is more natural for me, which I’ll call a delta.Imagine that you and I each model the world (or some part of it) as implementing some program. Very oversimplified example: if I learn that e.g. it's cloudy today, that means the “weather” variable in my program at a particular time[1] takes on the value “cloudy”

Summary. The Midas Project is a new AI safety organization. We use public advocacy to incentivize stronger self-governance from the companies developing and deploying high-risk AI products. This week, we’re launching our first major campaign, targeting the AI company Cognition. Cognition is a rapidly growing startup [1] developing autonomous coding agents. Unfortunately, they’ve told the public virtually nothing about how, or even if, they will conduct risk evaluations to prevent misuse and other