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NAB Morning Call

Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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All Episodes

16:49

Hot air on rare earths

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/10/12

Monday 13th October 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABMarkets threw a bit of a hissy fit on Friday over US threats of 100% tariffs on China, and the meeting between Xi and Trump supposedly cancelled. But how much of it is hot air? If you look at the latest gambling odds from Polymarket, there’s only an 11% chance of a 100% tariff on China by November 1st and a 67% chance the two presidents will meet before the end of the month. Phil asks

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30:34

Weekend Edition: The thirst for gold. How long before...

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/10/10

Friday 10th October 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Gold hit another watershed moment this week, moving beyond $4,000 an ounce. Investors seemingly can’t get enough of it. John Reade, senior market strategist for the World Gold Council, joins Phil to talk about why gold keeps rising in price, and whether $6,000 by this time next year is realistic? Or have we reached ‘peak worry’, and prices

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17:07

Markets cautious in data drought

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/10/09

Friday 10th October 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABThe US shutdown continues and the data drought continues, hence, markets are a little more cautious and central bankers seem to be erring on the side of caution (RBNZ being the exception). NAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil to decipher some of the comments from central bank speakers and looks at a couple of interesting papers from the Boston and Dallas Fed. Plus, with Japan now under new

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16:40

Fed Minutes, Gold’s New High and the RBNZ’s big cut

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/10/08

Thursday 9th October 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABThe Fed minutes are out, and NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to peruse the 40 pages to see what prompted the decision to cut rates, even though there were concerns over rising inflation. They also discuss RBNZ’s big cut yesterday, with more to come. And they look at gold, which pushed higher, even against a stronger US dollar. Ray puts it down to a lack of choices when it comes to stable

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16:42

US shut for a week, gold over $4k, RBNZ ready to cut

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/10/07

Wednesday 8th October 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABThe US shutdown continues with no end in sight, just a threat from the President not to pay back salary to some furloughed workers, and the prospect of layoffs just days away. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk through the latest news and data, including the NY Fed survey that shows consumer inflation expectations have lifted. At home, consumer sentiment fell for the second time in

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16:35

Konnichiwa and Au Revoir

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/10/06

Tuesday 7th October 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABIt’s been a session light on data but heavy on geopolitics. Markets reacted firmly as expected, to the surprise win for Sane Takaichi as leader of Japan’s LDP. The resignation of the French Prime Minister yesterday was also a surprise, sending yields higher and a big fall in equities. US equities, meanwhile, continue to rise, including a surge in the price of OpenAI after a data-centre

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17:26

Abenomics to rise again? Surprise as Takaichi wins...

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/10/05

Monday 6th October 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABSanae Takaichi won the LDP leadership vote in Japan on Saturday, so is set to become Japan’s first female prime minister.She’s a known supporter of Abenomics, so could its resurgence mean a rate hike by the Bank of Japan is less likely. ‘Yes!’ is the quick answer from NAB’s Taylor Nugent. So what does that mean for bond yields, equities and the Yen today? The other weekend surprise was

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26:33

ASK ANDREW: On AI, Trump, Global Warming, Asia, Debt...

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/10/03

Friday 3rd October 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.NAB CEO Andrew Irvine returns to the Morning Call to answer your questions. Hear his views on Australia’s investment opportunity from Asia and what he’s doing to make NAB stand out for customers. ‘We have no God-given right to be here’, he says.Phil also relays some pointed questions from listeners; the danger of job losses from AI, NAB’s

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17:29

The jobs challenge

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/10/02

Friday 3rd October 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABWith no non-farm payrolls out in the US today, and no jobless claims numbers last night, attention turns to private data, of which the Challenger jobs survey is one of the more credible reports. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the overnight data supports the idea of a low hiring, low firing economy, although it did also highlight the extent of the DOGE cuts on government workers. There could be

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16:01

Dancing in the Dark

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/10/01

Thursday 2nd October 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABMarkets will have to feel their way through the next few weeks, because the US shutdown means there’s an absence of key government data. No weekly jobless claims today, and no non-farms payrolls tomorrow.Betting suggests it will last longer than two weeks. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through the market reaction and the implications. They also examine the surprise fall in the

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15:56

Schools Out. And so is the US government.

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/30

Wednesday 1st October 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABNot only is it school holidays for a lot of Australia right now, there’s also a week-long national holiday in China. And the US government seems likely to shutdown later today unless there’s a last-minute reprieve. That’s a lot of people not going to work. Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent about the potential impact of the US shutdown and, assuming no payrolls data on Friday, what can

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19:26

Lights out for US government

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/29

Tuesday 30th September 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABThere has been no breakthrough yet in avoiding a US government shutdown from tomorrow. President Trump's focus has been on negotiating a peace deal for Gaza. NAB’s Ray Attrill says markets are concerned the shutdown means non-farm payrolls are not published on Friday, leaving everyone guessing about whether the weakness in the labour market has continued. He also looks ahead to

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17:11

Happy Friday

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/28

Friday 29th September 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABFriday was a day of positivity in the US, with shares bouncing back and a higher than expected read on US personal spending. But NAB’s Sally Auld says inflation is still higher than where the Fed would like it. But we know Jerome Powell is also concerned about a weakening labour market, so that makes Friday’s non-farm payrolls particularly prescient.Sally and Phil also discuss Trump’s

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34:39

Weekend Edition: China and US. Who holds the cards?

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/26

Friday 26th September 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Donald Trump came out heavy on tariffs against China, supposedly to crack down on fentanyl trafficking, but mostly to offset America’s big trade deficit. Last year that deficit with China was close to $300 billion, more than a third of the US’s total negative trade balance. Since then, tariffs have been reduced in two successive 90-day

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17:27

Faster US growth ahead of PCE data pushes us equities...

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/25

Thursday 25th September 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABUnexpectedly positive data out of the US, including an upward revision to GDP, has push ed equities lower, and adds to the question of when does the Fed need to cut. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to dissect the data and examine the (still very varied) views of Fed speakers. It depends on the inflation data, of course, out later today. But if growth is picking up, if the job market

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16:59

Inflation numbers likely to keep RBA on hold well...

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/24

Thursday 25th September 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABAussie inflation numbers were a bit higher than expected yesterday. On the surface it didn’t seem to be too much of an upside surprise, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent tells Phil that the devil was in the detail, with worrying indicators around services inflation.Taylor says this will have a material impact on the quarterly inflation print. As a result, it is changing its forecasts for rate

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13:08

Powell keeps quiet, Trump speaks out

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/23

Wednesday 24th September 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABNot a lot of movement in the markets today, and what there has been mostly comes from what’s not being said. Jerome Powell didn’t give any commitment to a path of cuts from the Fed, instead focusing on the rising challenges of inflation and employment. It was enough to drive bond yields lower and stop the forward momentum in the US share market, particularly for tech stocks. For

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14:03

All talk from central bankers

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/22

Tuesday 23rd September 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABIt’s been light-on for data so far this week, so the focus has been on the words of central bankers, starting with Michelle Bullock’s testimony to the House Economics Committee, followed by Fed speakers overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says the sentiment is slightly more hawkish, which is why bond yields are edging up slowly. Equity markets aren’t concerned though, particularly tech

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15:25

US shares carry on regardless

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/21

Monday 22nd September 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABThere’s one thing US equity markets seem to love – no news.If there’s no news they’ll assume everything is good. That was the case on Friday with the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P all reaching new highs. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk about what news was driving markets, including the fall in Sterling after news of a rising government deficit, a continued slump in retail sales for

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28:01

Weekend Edition: Stablecoin – the Australian opportunity

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/19

Friday 19th September 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.A couple of weeks ago we talked about how Stablecoin in the US was seen as a means to drive demand for the expanding supply of US treasuries. What we didn’t touch onwas why people would want to use Stablecoin.’ There are so many different use cases,’ says Drew Bradford, CEO of Catena Digital, currently Australia’s only stablecoin

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