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NAB Morning Call

Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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All Episodes

15:56

Schools Out. And so is the US government.

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/30

Wednesday 1st October 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABNot only is it school holidays for a lot of Australia right now, there’s also a week-long national holiday in China. And the US government seems likely to shutdown later today unless there’s a last-minute reprieve. That’s a lot of people not going to work. Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent about the potential impact of the US shutdown and, assuming no payrolls data on Friday, what can

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19:26

Lights out for US government

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/29

Tuesday 30th September 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABThere has been no breakthrough yet in avoiding a US government shutdown from tomorrow. President Trump's focus has been on negotiating a peace deal for Gaza. NAB’s Ray Attrill says markets are concerned the shutdown means non-farm payrolls are not published on Friday, leaving everyone guessing about whether the weakness in the labour market has continued. He also looks ahead to

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17:11

Happy Friday

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/28

Friday 29th September 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABFriday was a day of positivity in the US, with shares bouncing back and a higher than expected read on US personal spending. But NAB’s Sally Auld says inflation is still higher than where the Fed would like it. But we know Jerome Powell is also concerned about a weakening labour market, so that makes Friday’s non-farm payrolls particularly prescient.Sally and Phil also discuss Trump’s

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34:39

Weekend Edition: China and US. Who holds the cards?

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/26

Friday 26th September 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Donald Trump came out heavy on tariffs against China, supposedly to crack down on fentanyl trafficking, but mostly to offset America’s big trade deficit. Last year that deficit with China was close to $300 billion, more than a third of the US’s total negative trade balance. Since then, tariffs have been reduced in two successive 90-day

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17:27

Faster US growth ahead of PCE data pushes us equities...

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/25

Thursday 25th September 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABUnexpectedly positive data out of the US, including an upward revision to GDP, has push ed equities lower, and adds to the question of when does the Fed need to cut. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to dissect the data and examine the (still very varied) views of Fed speakers. It depends on the inflation data, of course, out later today. But if growth is picking up, if the job market

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16:59

Inflation numbers likely to keep RBA on hold well...

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/24

Thursday 25th September 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABAussie inflation numbers were a bit higher than expected yesterday. On the surface it didn’t seem to be too much of an upside surprise, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent tells Phil that the devil was in the detail, with worrying indicators around services inflation.Taylor says this will have a material impact on the quarterly inflation print. As a result, it is changing its forecasts for rate

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13:08

Powell keeps quiet, Trump speaks out

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/23

Wednesday 24th September 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABNot a lot of movement in the markets today, and what there has been mostly comes from what’s not being said. Jerome Powell didn’t give any commitment to a path of cuts from the Fed, instead focusing on the rising challenges of inflation and employment. It was enough to drive bond yields lower and stop the forward momentum in the US share market, particularly for tech stocks. For

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14:03

All talk from central bankers

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/22

Tuesday 23rd September 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABIt’s been light-on for data so far this week, so the focus has been on the words of central bankers, starting with Michelle Bullock’s testimony to the House Economics Committee, followed by Fed speakers overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says the sentiment is slightly more hawkish, which is why bond yields are edging up slowly. Equity markets aren’t concerned though, particularly tech

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15:25

US shares carry on regardless

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/21

Monday 22nd September 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABThere’s one thing US equity markets seem to love – no news.If there’s no news they’ll assume everything is good. That was the case on Friday with the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P all reaching new highs. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk about what news was driving markets, including the fall in Sterling after news of a rising government deficit, a continued slump in retail sales for

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28:01

Weekend Edition: Stablecoin – the Australian opportunity

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/19

Friday 19th September 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.A couple of weeks ago we talked about how Stablecoin in the US was seen as a means to drive demand for the expanding supply of US treasuries. What we didn’t touch onwas why people would want to use Stablecoin.’ There are so many different use cases,’ says Drew Bradford, CEO of Catena Digital, currently Australia’s only stablecoin

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19:07

More central bank decisions, more US optimism

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/18

Friday 19th September 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABIt’s been a busy week for central banks, with many staying on hold. The Bank of England was one of them, but they did announce a slowdown in their QT program. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through the path for the BoE, the glacial rate of cuts from the Norge Bank and expectations for the Bank of Japan today. Meanwhile markets have responded well to the Fed’s more hawkish

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15:39

Fed’s risk management cut

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/17

Thursday 18th September 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABJerome Powell called today’s rate cut, and the increased dots plot for the remainder of the year, part of their risk management approach. Although some might say increasing the expectation for cuts, whilst highlighting the potential for a weaker labour market and forecasting an increase in inflation was throwing caution to the wind. Certainly, bond markets have been on a journey in

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17:19

Cautious markets a day out from the Fed

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/16

Tuesday 14th September 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABMarkets are a little more cautious today a day out from the Fed. Maybe it’s been compounded by stronger tbhan expected data out of the us, particularly retail sales. Maybe less cuts will be needed. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether we can expect some market repricing after the dots plot from the Fed tomorrow morning. And the Euro hit a 4 year high. And it’s not just the Fed in

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17:24

Too ready for a Fed easing cycle?

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/15

Tuesday 14th September 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABMarkets are positioning themselves for the Fed and the assumption seems to be that the cut this week will be the start of a broader easing cycle. But what if it isn’t? NAB’s Sally Auld says growth and unemployment are both tracking close to the Fed’s forecasts in June, so we are unlikely to see a mass revision to the dots at tomorrow’s Fed meeting. The activity data out of China was

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14:59

Aussie dollar climbs above the uncertainty

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/14

Monday 13th September 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABThe Aussie dollar has broken free from the holding pattern that has kept it below 66 US cents all year. On today’s podcast Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill why now, for a risk-sensitive currency, when there is still so much global uncertainty.That uncertainty was reflected in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey on Friday, which showed US inflation expectations were rising

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29:55

Weekend Edition: Less autonomous central banks and...

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/12

Friday 12th September 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Maybe it’snot just the Fed that’s having its independence challenged. This week independent economist Paul Mortimer-Lee wonders whether the Bank of England is now more focused on preventing the economy from tanking that it is concerned about inflation. He provides a pessimistic outlook for the UK economy, which he says is suffering from

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15:13

US inflation, jobless claims and equities, all...

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/11

Friday 12th September 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABUS inflation numbers overnight weren’t too far from market expectations, but NAB’s Sally Auld points out that the core rate for August was close to a rounding error that could have been uncomfortable (0.4% rather than 0.3%). That print, combined with continued growing labour weakness in the weekly jobless claims, was enough to push bond yields down (US 10-year yields got down to 3.99%)

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18:00

Less inflation and the world’s richest man

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/10

Thursday 11th September 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABUS bond yields pushed lower after the latest producer price index was weaker than expected. The core figure, year on year, has gone from 3.4% in July to 2.8% in August. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says a chunk of the fall has been margin squeeze to compensate for import tariffs. Obviously, we only have to wait for today for a measure of consumer CPI. China’s CPI was mixed, with a fall

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17:35

BLS rewrites US jobs history

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/09

Wednesday 10th September 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABAlthough we said yesterday that revisions to the BLS jobs data for the year to March are a piece of history, the size of the downward revision does flag the issue about just how accurate these numbers are. The revision basically wipes out half the jobs growth for the year to March, following a big revision down the year before. The markets didn’t respond too much to the data, but it

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16:18

Will US jobs numbers be revised down today?

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/09/08

Tuesday 9th September 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABAre we about to see a big downward revision in US jobs data? Today a recalibrated set of results for the year to March will be released. Last time it showed a downward revision of 818,000 jobs. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says its ancient history and he doesn’t expect the markets, or the Fed to pay toomuch attention. He also talks to Phil about the collapse of the French government – again -

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1,348 results

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