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NAB Morning Call

Start your day with the NAB Morning Call for the latest overnight key economic and market information straight from our team of expert market economists and strategists. This includes perspective on overnight news and market price action and the forces shaping movements in Australian and global markets in the days ahead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

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All Episodes

31:44

Weekend Edition: How far will AI investment go?

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/11/14

Friday 14th November 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Historically America’s big-tech firms have seemed like a safe bet for investors. They had strong revenue streams, and they were ploughing profits back into innovative ideas for future revenue growth. That’s changed since the pandemic with the rapid growth of AI, with firms embarking on debt-fuelled expansion in what Phil suggests is a good

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14:54

Is that it for the RBA? US missing October.

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/11/13

Friday14th November 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABSally suggested as much yesterday. Now the recovery in the unemployment rate in Australia yesterday has confirmed it. NAB is not expecting any further easing by the RBA in this cycle. Ken Crompton talks through the numbers that led to this decision – actually, the employment data probably had the least to do with NAB’s call.Meanwhile, in the US, the Fed is still divided, although

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13:48

US vote to open, high for Aussie housing investment

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/11/12

Thursday 13th November 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABIt’s hard to imagine the RBA cutting rates anytime soon, after yesterday’s housing loan data showed a sharp rise, including a record for new investment loans. NAB’s Sally Auld says it’s a sign for the RBA that their policy is not as restrictive as they thought it was even a month ago. Today’s employment numbers are unlikely to shift that dial.The good news from the US is that an end

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15:45

US Ready to Open, Aussie confidence climbs, UK...

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/11/11

Wednesday 12th November 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABIt was reasonably constructive news from the latest NAB Business Survey according to Taylor Nugent. Confidence fell 2pts in October, but it remains above the long runaverage and echoes concerns from Andrew Hauser about rising capacity utilisation. Aussie consumer confidence jumped yesterday, despite expectations that the RBA will cut rates later, or not at all. Meanwhile, it looks

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14:26

Shutdown showdown ready to end? RBA’s easing over?

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/11/10

Tuesday 11th November 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABEquity markets have bounced back on the expectation that we are days away from an end to the US shutdown. Phil points out that Polymarket odds shifted from yesterday, when 56% saying it won’t be resolved by November 16th, to now 89% saying it will be! NAB’s Ray Attrill says markets are behaving like it’s a done deal, although it could be an interim fix that has to be revisited in

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16:57

Not so fast!

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/11/09

Monday 10th November 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABSigns of a weakening global economy are mounting—though with limited US data this week, the picture remains incomplete. Still, the sharp drop in the Michigan consumer sentiment survey and a contraction in China’s October exports suggest more than just a slowdown. Even Canada’s falling unemployment rate comes with caveats.Closer to home, all eyes are on Australia’s labour market data and

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30:49

Weekend Edition: Diversifying Australia

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/11/07

Friday 7th November 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Australia has for a long time being criticised for being a dig up and ship out economy, and the need to diversify has been talked about for decades. With that in mind, and fresh from the recognition during the COVID emergency of how fragile global supply chains can be, the Australian government established the National Reconstruction Fund

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15:25

Jobs data lost on the foggy highway

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/11/06

Friday 7th November 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABNormally all eyes would be on the release of the non-farm payrolls data today, but the shutdown has put paid to that. The Fed’s Goolsbee says the lack of data makes it hard to advocate rate cuts; ‘when its foggy, let’s just be a little careful and slow down’. The job is made harder when available data conflicts with each other. Yesterday we were talking about the positive ADP jobs

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16:58

Markets Climb, Jobs Hold, Trump's Wobbles

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/11/05

Thursday 6th November 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABEurope’s revised PMIs suggest a slow but steady recovery, while U.S. services data came in stronger than expected. There’s plenty to feel optimistic about — despite political turbulence. Donald Trump faces mounting challenges: New York has elected a young Muslim mayor in a historic shift, and the Supreme Court has begun reviewing his emergency tariff measures.Meanwhile, markets are in

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16:41

The race to stop inflation

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/11/04

Wednesday 5th November 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABThose who believed we were on the final furlong in the race to stop inflation, will have to think again. Central banks are concerned, and cuts are being pushed back. NAB’s Ray Attrill points to yesterday’s RBA statement that there are uncertainties about whether their policy is too restrictive. In other words, could this mean we’ve already reached the end of the easing cycle? The Bank

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16:09

Housing hotter ahead of RBA forecasts

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/11/03

Tuesday 4th November 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABThe Australian housing sector is certainly picking up, with prices rising and a sharp increase in dwelling approvals last month, particularly for units. An interesting backdrop for today’s RBA meeting. NAB’s Sally Auld says house prices are not targeted by RBA policy, but the wealth effect does increase consumer spending, something which the central bank will be cognisant of. Does that

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16:27

Dribs and drabs

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/11/02

Monday 3rd November 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABMarkets didn’t have a lot to respond to on Friday, with no big data releases and no major surprises in what reports there were. Earnings probably had the biggest influence at the end of the week, with Amazon reporting 20% growth in AWS, providing further evidence of the growth in demand for cloud and AI services. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to pick through the bones from the rest of

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33:31

Weekend Edition: The Tasman Divide

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/10/31

Friday 31st October 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.There are clear differences between the Australian and New Zealand economies right now, and Phil explores them with BNZ’s Doug Steele and NAB’s Gareth Spence. Doug talks of New Zealand’s rolling recession, with three years of slow GDP per capita growth, weak domestic demand and rising unemployment. Gareth paints a rosier picture for

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17:04

He says, Xi Says

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/10/30

Friday 31st October 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABDonald Trump and President Xi have done a deal that staves off the 100% tariff hike, and actually sees existing tariffs fall a little. Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Friend why markets aren’t more excited after what Trump called a ‘truly great’ meeting. Meanwhile uncertainty has kept rates on hold for the ECB and the Bank of Japan. The Yen was the outlier in currency moves overnight. Today’s

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14:34

Fed Cuts, RBA in May, or Maybe Not

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/10/29

Thursday 30th October 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABThe FOMC cut rates, but the Fed was very divided, with one dissenter wanting a 50bpcut, the other wanting to keep rates on hold. NAB’s Sally Auld gives her take on the mood of Powell’s press conference, that pushed bond yields and the dollar higher. At home yields and the Aussie dollar pushed higher after a surprise upside for the latest CPI read. NAB is still not expecting a ratee cut

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17:16

US confidence slides, tech expectations rise, Aussie...

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/10/28

Wednesday 29th October 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABThe S&P hit a new intraday high as markets prepare for the Fed’s assumed cut tomorrow, alongside a swag of tech earnings. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through how, despite all that hope, consumer confidence slid in the latest Conference Board survey. Today’s CPE data for Australia will be uber-important in setting the direction and tone for the RBA, whilst the Bank of Canada makes

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15:38

Aussie dollar gains, gold dives on US China optimism

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/10/27

Tuesday 28th October 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABThe market shift we highlighted yesterday morning continued through the session yesterday and overnight, with gold losing ground, US equities rising and the Aussie dollar the main beneficiary in currency markets. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the ussie was also helped by the PBoC fixing the Renminbi at his highest level since October. Tay says the Aussie was also influenced a little by the

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17:09

Deals, earnings and central banks – a busy week ahead

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/10/26

Monday 27th October 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABThings are about to get very busy. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil at the start of a week that should see off the threat of an extra 100%tariff on China. We will also see rate decisions from the Fed, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan. For the Fed, the assumption of a cut now seems even more likely after the slower than expected growth in US CPI on Friday. Australian CPI for Q3 is

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25:54

Weekend Edition: Is Australia America’s New best Friend?

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/10/24

Friday 17th October 2025Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Earlier this week Donald Trump and Anthony Albanese announced a new rare earths deal and confirmation of the AUKUS defence agreement. The market response was fairly tame. Are we becoming desensitised to the plethora of unilateral deals the US has been doing lately, and sceptical that the promises will see the light of day?James Carouso, who

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14:53

Trump’s oil sanctions hit home

NAB Morning Call ·

2025/10/23

Friday 24th October 2025NAB Markets Research DisclaimerFinancial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABDonald Trump’s sanctions on two big Russian oil producers might be enough to stop India buying from them and could have a profound impact on Putin’s foreign earnings. That’s pushed oil prices higher, whilst equities have been boosted by news that Trump and Xi will meet next week to hammer out a deal.NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the market response to the day’s news, plus a preview of

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1,387 results

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