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PODCAST

Excess Returns

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

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All Episodes

00:55:54

The Risk Isn't Where You Think | Carl Kaufman on AI...

Excess Returns ·

2025/11/21

In this episode of Excess Returns, we talk with Carl Kaufman, Co-President and Co-CIO of Osterweis Capital Management, about navigating today’s fixed income landscape. Carl breaks down the major segments of the bond market, explains how credit and interest rate cycles interact, discusses private credit risks, and shares how he builds durable, low-volatility bond portfolios. Drawing on more than two decades managing one of the top multi-sector income funds, Carl offers clear, practical insights for

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01:00:26

The Bubble You Can't Short | Rob Arnott on What You...

Excess Returns ·

2025/11/19

Follow Us on Substack:https://excessreturnspod.substack.com/In this episode, we sit down with Rob Arnott for a wide-ranging discussion on bubbles, valuations, AI spending, market history, index construction, and long-term return expectations. Rob explains how to think about bubbles in real time, why today’s market echoes the late 1990s, and what investors can practically do to improve future returns. He also digs into Research Affiliates’ latest work on fundamental indexing, growth investing, and

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00:53:59

The Bull Market Where Everyone Feels Broke | Behind...

Excess Returns ·

2025/11/18

Follow Click Beta:Spotifyhttps://open.spotify.com/show/0u1fxie4C4vHXIJPUMhvUsApple Podcastshttps://podcasts.apple.com/ky/podcast/click-beta/id1793929457YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/excessreturns

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01:09:37

The Two Tailed Market Risk | Brent Kochuba on What...

Excess Returns ·

2025/11/16

Subscribe on Spotifyhttps://open.spotify.com/show/4KR2YVJqk2lnVETMKDavJfSubscribe on Apple Podcastshttps://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-opex-effect/id1711880009Subscribe on YouTubehttps://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPYvx_y92dvI1PSdiho0ALw

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01:00:14

$1 Trillion AI Bet. $10 Billion in Profits | Bob...

Excess Returns ·

2025/11/14

In this episode, we sit down with Bob Elliott for a wide-ranging conversation about the late-cycle economic backdrop, the Fed’s dilemma, AI’s real economic impact, the cracks forming beneath the surface of private credit and private markets, and the growth of hedge-fund-style strategies inside ETFs. Bob walks through what he is seeing in the labor market, inflation, tariffs, and risk assets, and then breaks down how Unlimited is building replication-based ETF strategies to capture hedge fund returns

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01:03:00

The Hidden Fingerprints of 100 Baggers | Chris Mayer...

Excess Returns ·

2025/11/13

Subscribe on Spotify⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/5IsVVM27KWP6SUW6KN2ife⁠Subscribe on Apple Podcasts⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-100-year-thinkers-long-term-compounding-in-a-short-term-world/id1845466003⁠Subscribe on YouTube⁠https://youtube.com/@excessreturnsIn this episode of The 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer, Robert Hagstrom, Bogumil Baranowski, and Matt Zeigler dive deep into what truly makes a great business and how long-term investors can develop the conviction to hold through

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00:41:08

He Invented the 4% Rule | Bill Bengen on Why He Now...

Excess Returns ·

2025/11/12

Bill Bengen, the creator of the 4% rule, joins us to revisit one of the most important ideas in financial planning and retirement research. In this conversation, he explains the origins of the 4% rule, how his thinking has evolved over 30 years, and why he now believes retirees can safely withdraw closer to 4.7% — or even more — under certain conditions. We explore the data behind his findings, how to think about inflation, valuations, longevity, and sequence of returns risk, and the philosophy of

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00:47:29

The Most Powerful Investing Tool You Aren’t Using |...

Excess Returns ·

2025/11/09

In this episode, we kick off our book project, The Most Important Investing Lesson: What the World’s Best Investors Would Teach You, with a deep dive into the ideas of Michael Mauboussin. We explore his most enduring lessons—concepts that have reshaped how we think about investing, decision making, and life. From base rates to expectations investing, we unpack how Mauboussin’s frameworks can help investors build better models of the world and make more rational, probabilistic decisions.Main topics

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00:54:55

The Bull Market You Don’t Want to Believe | Rupert...

Excess Returns ·

2025/11/07

Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Matt Zeigler to talk global markets, China’s resurgence, the AI CapEx boom, and where investors can still find value in a concentrated, overvalued U.S. market. Rupert shares insights from his recent trip to China, his evolving macro framework, and how he’s positioning across equities, credit, and real assets in what he believes could be the start of a long cycle shift away from U.S. dominance.Topics covered:China’s accelerating industrial and market

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00:59:22

The Most Extreme Speculation in 40 Years | Richard...

Excess Returns ·

2025/11/05

In this episode, we are joined by Richard Bernstein, CIO and CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors. We discuss why this is one of the most speculative market environments he has seen in his 40-year career, why he still believes it may also be one of the best eras for patient long-term investors, and how to think about the real opportunities hiding beneath the market's current narrow leadership. Richard breaks down his profit cycle framework, shares why investors are confusing economic stories for

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01:05:37

99.9% Focus on the Wrong Question | Victor Haghani on...

Excess Returns ·

2025/11/04

In this episode, we sit down with Victor Haghani, founder of Elm Wealth and one of the original partners at LTCM, to explore his journey from running complex hedge fund strategies to adopting a simplified, evidence-based investment approach. We discuss how investors should think about expected returns, portfolio construction, dynamic asset allocation, valuation signals, buybacks, managed futures, and the dangers of extrapolating past returns into the future.Topics covered:• Victor’s journey from

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01:08:52

The Case for Permanently Higher Market Valuations |...

Excess Returns ·

2025/11/02

Subscribe on Apple Podcsasts⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jim-paulsen-show/id1828054999⁠Subscribe on Spotify⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/3QaBDVGuBZ3cZfFZ4mqPFc⁠Subscribe on YouTube⁠https://www.youtube.com/excessreturns

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01:04:48

The Liquidity Trap Door | Cem Karsan on Why We Are...

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/31

In this episode, Cem Karsan returns to Excess Returns to break down the market through the lens of liquidity, reflexivity, and options-driven market structure. We cover why he believes we are in a bubble but still early in its trajectory, the mechanics behind today’s volatility dynamics, the role of AI spending in sustaining the cycle, and why traditional 60/40 portfolios may face major challenges in the years ahead. Cem also explains how investors should think about tail risk, true diversification,

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01:07:18

The $5 Trillion Question | Kai Wu on the Risks of the...

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/29

Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital joins Excess Returns to discuss his paper Surviving the AI CapEx Boom. In this episode, Kai breaks down the unprecedented level of investment in AI infrastructure, why today’s AI buildout mirrors past technology booms, and what it all means for investors. He explores the parallels between AI and historic bubbles, the implications of massive corporate CapEx spending, and where value might ultimately be captured as the cycle plays out.Topics covered:Why big tech’s CapEx

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00:39:22

The Inflation Risk Investors Miss | Nancy Davis

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/28

In this episode of Excess Returns, we speak with Nancy Davis, founder and CIO of Quadratic Capital Management and the mind behind the innovative fixed income ETFs IVOL and BNDD. Nancy shares her insights on how investors are unknowingly short volatility in their portfolios, the role of options and convexity in fixed income, and how her ETFs seek to hedge against inflation, interest rate shifts, and volatility in a unique way. We also discuss the bond market, inflation dynamics, and how investors can

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01:00:47

The 40 CAPE Conundrum | Meb Faber on What High...

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/27

In this episode of Excess Returns, Meb Faber joins the show to discuss valuations, diversification, trend following, value investing, and the evolution of markets and investor behavior over the past two decades. Meb shares insights from his upcoming book, lessons from 400 years of market history, and how investors can position themselves for the next decade. The conversation covers everything from international investing and concentration risk to ETFs, managed futures, AI, and long-term

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00:59:15

Everyone Feared Recession. His Data Said Otherwise |...

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/26

Eric Freedman, Chief Investment Officer at US Bank Wealth, joins Excess Returns to discuss markets, the economy and his investment process. Freedman shares his “control the controllables” investment framework, why he’s maintained a glass-half-full view on the U.S. economy, and how data—not emotion—drives portfolio decisions. The conversation covers macro trends, inflation, the Fed, AI, valuation, and how to stay disciplined as an investor.Topics covered:Data-driven investing and the “control the

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01:01:59

Most Never Escape Stage 3 | Rick Ferri on the...

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/25

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Rick Ferri, founder of Ferri Investment Solutions and host of the Bogleheads on Investing podcast. Rick shares timeless insights on the evolution of an investor’s education, the pitfalls of complexity, and how to build portfolios that are simple, low-cost, and behaviorally sustainable. The discussion covers how investors can think about macro forecasts, indexing, factors, international diversification, and the right withdrawal rates in

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01:05:40

Investing in a Liquidity Dominated Market | Remi Tetot

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/24

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler talks with macro strategist and author Remi Tetot, known as “The Mad King.” They explore how liquidity, policy, and narratives have reshaped markets over the last decade, why fundamentals have lost their grip, and how investors can adapt to a fractured global cycle. The conversation spans macro themes like fiscal dominance, housing, crypto, and AI — and ends with a deeper reflection on human capital, autonomy, and the behavioral side of markets.Topics

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01:05:04

The 4% That Drive All Returns | Larry Swedroe on What...

Excess Returns ·

2025/10/22

In this episode of Excess Returns, Larry Swedroe returns to discuss the biggest risks and opportunities facing investors today. From tariffs and immigration to AI and private credit, Larry shares evidence-based insights on how to think about markets without relying on forecasts. He explains why diversification is essential, how investors can “sin a little” with duration and valuation, and why only 4% of stocks drive the equity risk premium. The conversation blends timeless investing wisdom with

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416 results

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