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PODCAST

Excess Returns

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

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All Episodes

00:56:17

The Line We Can't Cross | Mike Green on the Passive...

Excess Returns ·

2026/01/20

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Mike Green of Simplify Asset Management for a deep dive into how passive investing has reshaped market structure, altered price discovery, and created new sources of systemic risk beneath the surface of today’s equity markets. Mike explains why index funds are not as passive as most investors believe, how daily flows drive prices in increasingly inelastic markets, and why the growth of passive strategies may be pushing markets toward an unstable

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00:59:36

Disbelief Is the Real Risk: Gene Munster and Doug...

Excess Returns ·

2026/01/18

This episode of Excess Returns features Gene Munster and Doug Clinton breaking down their 2026 technology and market predictions, with a deep focus on artificial intelligence, big tech, and where investors may be misreading the current cycle. The conversation explores how far along the AI bull market really is, what fundamentals still support it, and where the biggest opportunities and risks may emerge over the next several years. Munster and Clinton discuss market structure, capital spending,

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01:02:08

The Bubble Most Will Get Wrong | Aswath Damodaran on...

Excess Returns ·

2026/01/16

In this episode of Excess Returns, Professor Aswath Damodaran joins Matt Zeigler and Kai Wu for a wide-ranging conversation on valuation, portfolio construction, and how investors should think about risk, discipline, and opportunity in a market shaped by AI, market concentration, and rising uncertainty. Damodaran walks through how he builds and manages his own portfolio, why price matters more than story or quality, and how AI-driven capital spending could reshape margins and returns across the

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00:59:27

The Great Moderation Is Over | Liz Ann Sonders on...

Excess Returns ·

2026/01/14

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Liz Ann Sonders to discuss the evolving market and economic landscape heading into 2026. The conversation focuses on why this cycle feels fundamentally different, how instability rather than uncertainty is shaping investor behavior, and what that means for inflation, the labor market, Federal Reserve policy, and equity markets. Liz Ann breaks down the growing bifurcation across the economy and markets, the shift away from the Great Moderation era,

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01:01:24

The Regime Shift No One is Prepared For | Grant...

Excess Returns ·

2026/01/12

This episode of Excess Returns features a wide ranging conversation with Grant Williams on what he calls the hundred year pivot. Grant explains why today’s environment feels fundamentally different from the last several decades, why long held investing assumptions may no longer apply, and how declining trust in institutions, money, and markets is reshaping the global financial system. Drawing on history, macroeconomics, and decades of market experience, the discussion explores what this transition

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01:10:28

Sold At "Irrational Exuberance". Still Lost Money |...

Excess Returns ·

2026/01/10

In this episode of Excess Returns, we dive deep into one of the most pressing investing debates today: how to think about valuations, profit margins, and artificial intelligence in a market that feels both expensive and transformative. Sam Ro joins Matt Zeigler and Kai Wu for a wide-ranging conversation that explores whether traditional valuation tools still matter, how AI is reshaping corporate economics, and why history suggests investors should be cautious about bubble narratives even when

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01:02:22

Long-Term Uptrend. Short-Term Warning Signs | Katie...

Excess Returns ·

2026/01/08

In this episode of Excess Returns, Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau to walk through her technical outlook for markets as we head into 2026. The conversation focuses on trend analysis, momentum, volatility, and risk management across U.S. equities, sectors, international markets, and alternative assets. Rather than making predictions, Katie explains how she reacts to price, confirms signals, and uses a disciplined technical process to identify

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00:57:35

It’s Not K-Shaped. It’s No Shaped | Jim Paulsen on...

Excess Returns ·

2026/01/06

Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jim-paulsen-show/id1828054999⁠⁠Subscribe on Spotify⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/3QaBDVGuBZ3cZfFZ4mqPFc⁠⁠In this episode of the Jim Paulsen Show, Jim Paulsen joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to break down what the economy and markets may really be signaling beneath the headline numbers. Drawing from his recent outlook and long history studying market cycles, Jim explains why growth may be weaker

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00:56:48

4% of Stocks. 100% of Wealth | Gautam Baid on the...

Excess Returns ·

2026/01/02

In this wide-ranging conversation, Gautam Baid joins Excess Returns to discuss the principles that shaped his investing philosophy, the lessons learned through bear markets, and why compounding, patience, and quality matter far more than forecasts or short-term performance. Drawing from his books The Joys of Compounding and The Making of a Value Investor, Baid shares a deeply reflective framework for long-term investing, portfolio construction, behavioral discipline, and global diversification, with

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01:02:48

We Read 22 2026 Market Forecasts So You Don't Have To...

Excess Returns ·

2025/12/31

In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler dig into forecast season by reviewing and synthesizing insights from 22 major Wall Street and institutional market outlooks. Rather than treating year-end forecasts as precise predictions, the conversation uses them as a framework for understanding consensus views, hidden assumptions, and where the real risks and surprises for 2026 may lie. The discussion spans macroeconomic conditions, AI-driven growth, earnings expectations,

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01:03:21

The Truth No One Sees | 41 Great Investors Share...

Excess Returns ·

2025/12/28

In this special compilation episode of Excess Returns, we ask one revealing question to some of the most respected investors, strategists, and market thinkers in the industry:What is one belief you hold about investing that most of your peers would disagree with?The answers challenge conventional wisdom across macro, valuation, diversification, options, forecasting, AI, and investor behavior.Rather than consensus, this episode highlights how great investors think differently about risk, uncertainty,

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00:57:29

The Base Case is Wrong | Paul Eitelman on AI,...

Excess Returns ·

2025/12/26

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Paul Eitelman, Global Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, to unpack their 2026 outlook and the idea of a “Great Inflection Point” for markets and the economy. Paul explains why the U.S. economy may be shifting from resilience to reacceleration, how artificial intelligence is moving from hype to measurable returns, and why market leadership could finally broaden beyond the Magnificent Seven. The conversation blends macroeconomic

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00:57:42

Nothing Has a Right to Exist in Your Portfolio | What...

Excess Returns ·

2025/12/24

In the latest episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson take a look back at 2025 and a look forward to 2026. Subscribe to Click Beta via the links below. Follow Click Beta:Spotify⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/0u1fxie4C4vHXIJPUMhvUs⁠Apple Podcasts⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/ky/podcast/click-beta/id1793929457⁠YouTube:⁠https://www.youtube.com/excessreturns

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01:01:04

The Existential Spending Battle | Adrian Helfert on...

Excess Returns ·

2025/12/21

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Adrian Helfert of Westwood to discuss how investors should be thinking about portfolio construction in a market shaped by artificial intelligence, high levels of concentration, shifting interest rate dynamics, and evolving economic signals. The conversation covers how AI-driven capital spending is changing return profiles across markets, why traditional investing rules are breaking down, and how investors can balance growth, income, and risk in an

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01:19:24

The Precarity Line | Ben Hunt and Adam Butler on the...

Excess Returns ·

2025/12/19

In this special episode, Adam Butler and Ben Hunt join Matt Zeigler to unpack one of the most charged debates in markets and economics today: whether our official statistics still reflect lived reality. Building on Mike Green’s work and Adam Butler’s essay The Bureau of Missing Children, the conversation moves beyond the technical definition of poverty to a deeper idea of economic precarity, the growing gap between what we measure and what people actually experience. Together, they explore debt,

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01:01:22

The Alpha No Human Can Find | David Wright on Machine...

Excess Returns ·

2025/12/17

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with David Wright, Head of Quantitative Investing at Pictet Asset Management, for a deep and practical conversation about how artificial intelligence and machine learning are actually being used in real-world investment strategies. Rather than focusing on hype or black-box promises, David walks through how systematic investors combine human judgment, economic intuition, and machine learning models to forecast stock returns, construct portfolios, and

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01:13:28

The 100 Year Thinkers | Chris Mayer and Robert...

Excess Returns ·

2025/12/15

In this episode of our new show The 100 Year Thinkers, Robert Hagstrom, Chris Mayer, Bogumil Baranowki and Matt Zeigler explain how investors get trapped by labels, abstractions, and simplistic models, and why breaking free with better mental models, language, and long-term thinking is a real edge in markets.Subscribe on Spotify⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/5IsVVM27KWP6SUW6KN2ife⁠⁠Subscribe on Apple

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01:10:11

Magnet Above. Trap Door Below | Inside the Options...

Excess Returns ·

2025/12/13

Brent Kochuba takes a look behind the scenes at the options flows driving the market heading into the December options expiration and the end of 2025. Subscribe on Spotify⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/4KR2YVJqk2lnVETMKDavJf⁠Subscribe on Apple Podcasts⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-opex-effect/id1711880009⁠Subscribe on YouTube⁠https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPYvx_y92dvI1PSdiho0ALw

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00:49:59

He Was Overweight Tech for 15 Years. He Just...

Excess Returns ·

2025/12/11

Ed Yardeni returns to Excess Returns to break down the evolving market landscape, why he moved the Magnificent 7 to underweight, and how AI, productivity, interest rates, global markets, and sector leadership will shape the next stage of the Roaring 2020s. Ed explains why the economy has remained so resilient, what could finally trigger a true market broadening, and how investors should think about everything from tech competition to inflation, private credit risks, and Fed policy heading into

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01:07:52

The Single Most Important Metric | Matt Reustle on...

Excess Returns ·

2025/12/08

We are including this episode from our separate show Teach Me Like I'm Five in the Excess Returns feed. If you would like to continue receiving new episodes, subscribe using the links below.In the episode, we sit down with Business Breakdowns host Matt Reustle to discuss how he breaks down businesses and the common characteristics that the best businesses he has looked at share. Subscribe on Spotifyhttps://open.spotify.com/show/7zu6lFpPohoPKhcu0Er9kBSubscribe on Apple

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