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PODCAST

Excess Returns

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

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All Episodes

01:10:28

Sold At "Irrational Exuberance". Still Lost Money |...

Excess Returns ·

2026/01/10

In this episode of Excess Returns, we dive deep into one of the most pressing investing debates today: how to think about valuations, profit margins, and artificial intelligence in a market that feels both expensive and transformative. Sam Ro joins Matt Zeigler and Kai Wu for a wide-ranging conversation that explores whether traditional valuation tools still matter, how AI is reshaping corporate economics, and why history suggests investors should be cautious about bubble narratives even when

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01:02:22

Long-Term Uptrend. Short-Term Warning Signs | Katie...

Excess Returns ·

2026/01/08

In this episode of Excess Returns, Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies joins Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau to walk through her technical outlook for markets as we head into 2026. The conversation focuses on trend analysis, momentum, volatility, and risk management across U.S. equities, sectors, international markets, and alternative assets. Rather than making predictions, Katie explains how she reacts to price, confirms signals, and uses a disciplined technical process to identify

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00:57:35

It’s Not K-Shaped. It’s No Shaped | Jim Paulsen on...

Excess Returns ·

2026/01/06

Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple Podcasts⁠⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jim-paulsen-show/id1828054999⁠⁠Subscribe on Spotify⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/3QaBDVGuBZ3cZfFZ4mqPFc⁠⁠In this episode of the Jim Paulsen Show, Jim Paulsen joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to break down what the economy and markets may really be signaling beneath the headline numbers. Drawing from his recent outlook and long history studying market cycles, Jim explains why growth may be weaker

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00:56:48

4% of Stocks. 100% of Wealth | Gautam Baid on the...

Excess Returns ·

2026/01/02

In this wide-ranging conversation, Gautam Baid joins Excess Returns to discuss the principles that shaped his investing philosophy, the lessons learned through bear markets, and why compounding, patience, and quality matter far more than forecasts or short-term performance. Drawing from his books The Joys of Compounding and The Making of a Value Investor, Baid shares a deeply reflective framework for long-term investing, portfolio construction, behavioral discipline, and global diversification, with

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01:02:48

We Read 22 2026 Market Forecasts So You Don't Have To...

Excess Returns ·

2025/12/31

In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler dig into forecast season by reviewing and synthesizing insights from 22 major Wall Street and institutional market outlooks. Rather than treating year-end forecasts as precise predictions, the conversation uses them as a framework for understanding consensus views, hidden assumptions, and where the real risks and surprises for 2026 may lie. The discussion spans macroeconomic conditions, AI-driven growth, earnings expectations,

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01:03:21

The Truth No One Sees | 41 Great Investors Share...

Excess Returns ·

2025/12/28

In this special compilation episode of Excess Returns, we ask one revealing question to some of the most respected investors, strategists, and market thinkers in the industry:What is one belief you hold about investing that most of your peers would disagree with?The answers challenge conventional wisdom across macro, valuation, diversification, options, forecasting, AI, and investor behavior.Rather than consensus, this episode highlights how great investors think differently about risk, uncertainty,

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00:57:29

The Base Case is Wrong | Paul Eitelman on AI,...

Excess Returns ·

2025/12/26

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Paul Eitelman, Global Chief Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, to unpack their 2026 outlook and the idea of a “Great Inflection Point” for markets and the economy. Paul explains why the U.S. economy may be shifting from resilience to reacceleration, how artificial intelligence is moving from hype to measurable returns, and why market leadership could finally broaden beyond the Magnificent Seven. The conversation blends macroeconomic

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00:57:42

Nothing Has a Right to Exist in Your Portfolio | What...

Excess Returns ·

2025/12/24

In the latest episode of Click Beta, Matt Zeigler, Dave Nadig and Cameron Dawson take a look back at 2025 and a look forward to 2026. Subscribe to Click Beta via the links below. Follow Click Beta:Spotify⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/0u1fxie4C4vHXIJPUMhvUs⁠Apple Podcasts⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/ky/podcast/click-beta/id1793929457⁠YouTube:⁠https://www.youtube.com/excessreturns

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01:01:04

The Existential Spending Battle | Adrian Helfert on...

Excess Returns ·

2025/12/21

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Adrian Helfert of Westwood to discuss how investors should be thinking about portfolio construction in a market shaped by artificial intelligence, high levels of concentration, shifting interest rate dynamics, and evolving economic signals. The conversation covers how AI-driven capital spending is changing return profiles across markets, why traditional investing rules are breaking down, and how investors can balance growth, income, and risk in an

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01:19:24

The Precarity Line | Ben Hunt and Adam Butler on the...

Excess Returns ·

2025/12/19

In this special episode, Adam Butler and Ben Hunt join Matt Zeigler to unpack one of the most charged debates in markets and economics today: whether our official statistics still reflect lived reality. Building on Mike Green’s work and Adam Butler’s essay The Bureau of Missing Children, the conversation moves beyond the technical definition of poverty to a deeper idea of economic precarity, the growing gap between what we measure and what people actually experience. Together, they explore debt,

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01:01:22

The Alpha No Human Can Find | David Wright on Machine...

Excess Returns ·

2025/12/17

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with David Wright, Head of Quantitative Investing at Pictet Asset Management, for a deep and practical conversation about how artificial intelligence and machine learning are actually being used in real-world investment strategies. Rather than focusing on hype or black-box promises, David walks through how systematic investors combine human judgment, economic intuition, and machine learning models to forecast stock returns, construct portfolios, and

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01:13:28

The 100 Year Thinkers | Chris Mayer and Robert...

Excess Returns ·

2025/12/15

In this episode of our new show The 100 Year Thinkers, Robert Hagstrom, Chris Mayer, Bogumil Baranowki and Matt Zeigler explain how investors get trapped by labels, abstractions, and simplistic models, and why breaking free with better mental models, language, and long-term thinking is a real edge in markets.Subscribe on Spotify⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/5IsVVM27KWP6SUW6KN2ife⁠⁠Subscribe on Apple

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01:10:11

Magnet Above. Trap Door Below | Inside the Options...

Excess Returns ·

2025/12/13

Brent Kochuba takes a look behind the scenes at the options flows driving the market heading into the December options expiration and the end of 2025. Subscribe on Spotify⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/4KR2YVJqk2lnVETMKDavJf⁠Subscribe on Apple Podcasts⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-opex-effect/id1711880009⁠Subscribe on YouTube⁠https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPYvx_y92dvI1PSdiho0ALw

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00:49:59

He Was Overweight Tech for 15 Years. He Just...

Excess Returns ·

2025/12/11

Ed Yardeni returns to Excess Returns to break down the evolving market landscape, why he moved the Magnificent 7 to underweight, and how AI, productivity, interest rates, global markets, and sector leadership will shape the next stage of the Roaring 2020s. Ed explains why the economy has remained so resilient, what could finally trigger a true market broadening, and how investors should think about everything from tech competition to inflation, private credit risks, and Fed policy heading into

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01:07:52

The Single Most Important Metric | Matt Reustle on...

Excess Returns ·

2025/12/08

We are including this episode from our separate show Teach Me Like I'm Five in the Excess Returns feed. If you would like to continue receiving new episodes, subscribe using the links below.In the episode, we sit down with Business Breakdowns host Matt Reustle to discuss how he breaks down businesses and the common characteristics that the best businesses he has looked at share. Subscribe on Spotifyhttps://open.spotify.com/show/7zu6lFpPohoPKhcu0Er9kBSubscribe on Apple

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01:00:11

The Water No One Can See | Graeme Foerster on Six...

Excess Returns ·

2025/12/06

In this episode of Excess Returns, Graeme Forster of Orbis joins us to discuss two major research papers: Six Courageous Questions for 2026 and Sunrise on Venus. We explore how long-running global trends may be reversing, what that means for U.S. dominance, the future of international and emerging markets, the risks and opportunities created by AI and massive CapEx spending, the dollar’s shifting role, and how investors should think about valuation, humility, and navigating a world where the

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01:00:35

The Thunderclap That Ends the Cycle | Jim Grant on...

Excess Returns ·

2025/12/04

James Grant, legendary founder of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, joins us for a wide-ranging conversation on cycles, interest rates, inflation, credit, the Federal Reserve, private markets, gold, and the future of investing. Grant brings five decades of historical perspective to today’s market extremes, explaining why this era of ultra-low interest rates created distortions that will shape returns for years to come — and where patient investors may ultimately find opportunity.Topics Covered• The

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01:02:49

The Fed Is Fighting the Wrong War | Jim Paulsen on...

Excess Returns ·

2025/12/02

In this episode, we’re joined again by Jim Paulsen to break down the key themes shaping markets and the economy heading into 2026. Jim explains why policymakers may be fighting the wrong battle, why real sustainable growth has quietly collapsed over the past 20 years, and how shifts in policy, demographics, productivity, inflation, and investor psychology all tie together. We also walk through Jim’s latest charts from Paulsen Perspectives and explore what they mean for stocks, sectors, interest

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01:19:37

The One Lesson | 50+ Great Investors Share the One...

Excess Returns ·

2025/11/30

In this special episode of Excess Returns, we share the most important investing lessons from more than 50 of our top guests. After asking more than 200 investors, strategists, academics, and market thinkers the same closing question about the one lesson they would teach the average investor, we compiled the most powerful, timeless, and repeatable insights into a single episode. This collection highlights common themes around patience, discipline, humility, diversification, risk management, and

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01:03:26

World War AI | Ben Hunt on the Economic Consequences...

Excess Returns ·

2025/11/28

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt sits down with Ben Hunt to break down his new Epsilon Theory essay, World War AI. They explore how the US government, markets, and Big Tech are rapidly shifting the AI narrative from productivity and progress toward a national security arms race with massive implications for energy, capital, jobs, inflation, and the broader economy. Ben explains why AI buildout is consuming enormous resources, how this echoes World War II scale mobilization, why consumers are

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