PODCAST

Mind the Macro

Michael Roberts and Jeff Baldwin

Weekly economic insights from Professional Forecasters in under 20 minutes

business investing

All Episodes

00:24:01

Stress Rising in the Shadows (Nov. 14 episode)

Mind the Macro ·

2025/11/22

On this November 14 episode we examine a market that is drifting without a single unifying negative narrative yet is steadily accumulating reasons for concern. High yield spreads are widening, and option adjusted spreads on CCC rated debt never returned to their pre Liberation Day lows. Creditors, it seems, have been pricing in greater risk for some time, and the recent rise in spreads only reinforces that view.We note as well that lending to non bank financial institutions has surged by roughly

00:24:12

Signs of Weakness in the Shutdown Fog

Mind the Macro ·

2025/11/22

This November 7, 2025 podcast opens with a sober look at a labor market that is showing clear signs of strain, despite the absence of governmental data due to the shutdown. The latest figures from Challenger Gray and Christmas show that announced layoffs now exceed one million so far this year, a threshold that in earlier cycles has been crossed only in recessions. We also assess new releases from Indeed on job openings, along with the latest reading from the ADP payroll report, both of which point

00:26:36

Losing Steam

Mind the Macro ·

2025/11/01

In this episode, we examine an unsettling mix of economic signals: a seemingly benign inflation print, rumblings in the banking system reminiscent of the pre-crisis era, the first major wave of layoffs, and growing dissent at the Federal Reserve. Markets greeted the latest CPI release with enthusiasm. Yet the details tell a darker story. The dubiously calculated shelter component has become a source of disinflation. Stripped of this measure, consumer prices rose faster than expected. At the same

00:24:14

The Bear Narrative: The Fast After the Feast

Mind the Macro ·

2025/10/24

In this episode, we take a different tack. We begin with the latest inflation figures, which offer little comfort to policymakers, before turning to the our bear case for the equity markets. From the pandemic-era flood of fiscal and monetary stimulus to the abrupt tightening that followed in 2022, the economic pendulum has swung with unusual violence. Now, as higher rates bite, the data point to a steady loss of momentum: hiring is slowing, corporate profits are softening, and consumers—once flush

00:21:25

The Beige and the Bruised

Mind the Macro ·

2025/10/23

In this episode, we dissect the latest Beige Book, which paints an increasingly uneven portrait of the American economy. Reports from the Federal Reserve’s districts point to softening retail demand, particularly among lower- and middle-income households, and to mounting strains in sectors such as agriculture, energy and transportation. We also examine the slide in the shares of business development companies—a bellwether for credit conditions in the lower reaches of corporate America—and the

00:21:06

Toil and Trouble

Mind the Macro ·

2025/10/14

While the government shutdown has temporarily silenced the flow of official macroeconomic data, other warning lights are flashing red. High-yield spreads are widening, loan-loss provisions are climbing across the banking sector, and negative revisions to corporate profits continue to erode confidence. Roughly a third of industries are already in recession—a sign that the slowdown is more pervasive than headline figures suggest. Against this backdrop, the question is no longer whether the Federal

00:22:39

Weakness in the Labor Market: Confirmed!

Mind the Macro ·

2025/10/04

In this episode, we discuss the weakness in the ADP report, Challenger Report, and JOLTS report in the context of the overall macroeconomic backdrop.

00:24:47

Mixed Signals: Housing & Regional Fed Presidents

Mind the Macro ·

2025/09/26

Markets were cheered this week by stronger-than-expected new home sales. We are less impressed. The data are notoriously volatile and often revised, offering at best a hazy snapshot of the housing market. More telling, perhaps, is the discord within the Federal Reserve. Regional presidents have struck markedly different notes from Jerome Powell’s message last week, underscoring the policy uncertainty that continues to shadow the economic outlook.

00:24:57

Highs that Haunt: Margin and Markets

Mind the Macro ·

2025/09/19

In this episode, we unpack the latest FOMC meeting, the shifting dynamics in housing, Dow Theory signals, and the surge in margin borrowing. The Fed appears poised to cut rates three times in 2025, and for now, fears about its independence remain overblown. Yet the market backdrop is uneasy: margin debt and equity indices have both reached record highs, a pairing that has historically preceded sharp sell-offs.

00:24:32

Rising Inflation and Unemployment

Mind the Macro ·

2025/09/12

Dan joins us again to discuss the implications of the massive negative revisions to nonfarm payrolls for the period April 2024 to March 2025. In addition, we discuss recent rising CPI figures and the conundrum facing the Federal Reserve; namely, the conflict in its inflation and employment mandates.

00:27:54

Dousing the Spinnaker: Removing Risk from the...

Mind the Macro ·

2025/09/06

We trimmed the portfolio’s risk profile earlier this week,though the fund remains fully invested in equities. In March and April 2025, we shifted the portfolio toward higher-beta sectors, reducing positions in defensive areas such as healthcare while increasing allocations to more volatile technology stocks. At the time, we likened the maneuver to hoisting a spinnaker to catch an additional gust of market momentum. The move proved highly profitable. However, recent data has altered the calculus. A

00:27:30

Powell Pivot: August 28, 2025

Mind the Macro ·

2025/09/05

We discuss Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, the housing market, and the implications of President Trump's potential removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

00:26:30

Dear Chair Powell - Are you Listening?

Mind the Macro ·

2025/08/22

On August 21st, we sat down with Dan Roberts to record this episode—just a day before Jerome Powell took to the stage at Jackson Hole. We wagered he would sound dovish. He did. The Fed chair even raised the specter of wage-price spirals, a subject we had dissected ourselves only hours earlier. Our conversation ranges from the fragility of credit markets to the tell-tale canaries in the coal mine that may yet shape monetary policy. They are surely among the concerns weighing on Mr. Powell as he

00:28:36

Signs of a Slowdown But Still Too Early to Sell

Mind the Macro ·

2025/08/14

In this episode, we feature our first guest who was the perfect first to the show. Dan Roberts, PhD was an economist with the Ronald Reagan Administration in the 1980s, and more recently, the head of Global Fixed Income at MacKay Shields, where he was the portfolio manager for the largest macro-oriented high yield strategy in the world. He also happens to be Mike's Dad. In this episode, Mike and Dan have a father-son chat on the the latest inflation figures, the current tension between

00:24:52

Negative News Dominates the Headlines

Mind the Macro ·

2025/08/08

This week, we discuss the negative revisions to payrolls, higher student loan delinquencies, and latest GDP figures, and how the glut of negative news is impacting our market views.

00:25:23

Housing Crunch

Mind the Macro ·

2025/07/29

In Episode 49, we discuss recent housing data pointing to a deteriorating outlook.

00:23:11

Higher Inflation, Lower Uncertainty

Mind the Macro ·

2025/07/17

We discuss the recent CPI and PPI releases, lower universal tariff threats, and red flags in the Beige Book, housing market, and credit market.

00:21:36

Jobs Numbers and Fed Minutes

Mind the Macro ·

2025/07/10

This week we chat about mixed jobs numbers out for May and June and what the Fed Minutes tell us about their likely future actions.

00:21:59

Market Recovery

Mind the Macro ·

2025/06/27

This episode we talk about the US equity market recovery vs Europe and Asia. We also go into inflation numbers released this week and other consumer spending metrics over the last few months.

00:21:30

Inflation Stays Low Despite Tariffs

Mind the Macro ·

2025/06/13

This week we chat about May inflation numbers, consumer confidence improving, and the interesting anomaly in Israel's strike on Iran.

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