PODCAST

Mind the Macro

Michael Roberts and Jeff Baldwin

Weekly economic insights from Professional Forecasters in under 20 minutes

business investing

All Episodes

00:23:54

Inflation, Iran and the Ghost of Executive Life

Mind the Macro ·

2026/03/05

This week we examine the implications of the war in Iran and the rising uncertainty now weighing on financial markets. Since our previous episode, titled “Inflation Intensifies Amid Credit Cracks,” the inflation outlook has deteriorated sharply as the conflict has pushed energy prices higher. In the near term, stronger inflation now appears almost unavoidable, arriving at a moment when the economic backdrop was already fragile. We also look to history for guidance on the risks building in private

00:23:44

Inflation Intensifies Amid Credit Cracks

Mind the Macro ·

2026/02/28

On this week’s episode, we examine signs that inflationary pressures are proving more stubborn than many had hoped. January’s Producer Price Index surprised to the upside, with headline prices rising 0.5 per cent over the month and the measure excluding food and energy increasing 0.8 per cent. We discuss why these pressures are likely to filter into the forthcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures data, particularly in goods, and what that means for the broader inflation narrative. We also turn to

00:24:28

Stagflation Creeps Back Into View

Mind the Macro ·

2026/02/24

This week the stagflation theme refused to fade. On Friday the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation. Headline and core PCE rose 2.9 per cent and 3.0 per cent respectively. More troubling than the levels was the recent momentum. Inflation has firmed over the past three months, an unwelcome development that further complicates the Fed’s path forward. The same release cycle brought a softer than expected Q4 2025 GDP report

00:24:53

Markets Catch On to the One Legged Stools

Mind the Macro ·

2026/02/14

This week we examine the reassuring headlines in the employment and inflation reports, set against weakening retail sales and housing activity. On the surface, payroll growth and a softer CPI print suggested resilience. A closer look told a more fragile story. Nearly all net payroll gains were concentrated in health care and social services, leaving the broader labor market treading water. Inflation, meanwhile, cooled largely because of sharp month over month declines in energy and used vehicle

00:19:32

Earnings Beat, Shares Retreat

Mind the Macro ·

2026/02/12

This week, we examine signs of economic cooling and a more demanding market backdrop. Private labor market reports from ADP, Revelio Labs, and Challenger, Gray and Christmas point to slowing hiring and softer demand for workers. Motor vehicle sales also weakened, and we argue the slowdown reflects more than poor weather, with a slowing consumer playing a larger role. Finally, we review recent earnings in the technology sector. While positive surprises remain common, markets have often reacted

00:24:33

More Red Flags

Mind the Macro ·

2026/01/29

This week, we address a broad set of developments shaping the macro landscape: Japan’s government bond strains, the weakening dollar, the state of the housing market, rising inflation risks, a fall in the consumer savings rate, and the key takeaways from the January FOMC press conference. We also revisit the latest GDP report, highlighting a notable anomaly - an outsized contribution from gold exports in the third quarter - that we argued was unlikely to persist. That view was promptly borne out

00:26:29

Beneath the CPI Calm

Mind the Macro ·

2026/01/20

In this episode, recorded on Friday, January 16, we examine the inflation outlook and the growing influence of geopolitics on financial markets. A superficially benign headline CPI reading obscures a firmer underlying inflationary trend that is likely to assert itself later in the year. Other inflation gauges are already running hotter, raising questions about whether the CPI is understating price pressures. We also consider the economic drag from the resumption of student loan payments, the

00:18:28

More Questions Than Answers

Mind the Macro ·

2026/01/10

This week, we examine a run of key labor market releases alongside the latest GDP and productivity data. The Employment Situation report showed nonfarm payroll growth coming in below expectations, capping off the weakest year for job creation since 2020 and the weakest non-recessionary year since 2003. While much of the commentary celebrated the headline GDP figure, we were left with more questions than answers. Net exports is typically a modest swing factor but it accounted for more than a third of

00:23:43

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

Mind the Macro ·

2025/12/19

In this episode, recorded on December 19, 2025, we examine the latest retail sales, employment, and CPI reports. Retail sales were flat on the month, underscoring a continued pullback in consumer spending as sentiment deteriorates and labor-market momentum slows.The employment report was more troubling than the headline figures suggest. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, while payrolls fell in October before rebounding modestly in November. A closer inspection, however, reveals a far

00:30:45

The Monetary Mission Impossible

Mind the Macro ·

2025/12/11

On this December 12 episode, we turn to the latest JOLTS report and, more importantly, the decisions and tone emerging from the Federal Open Market Committee. Job openings surprised modestly on the upside, yet were largely unchanged from the previous month. The more telling signal came from the quits rate, a gauge the Federal Reserve treats as a window into the confidence of American workers. Quits have fallen to their lowest level since August 2020, when the economy was still in the teeth of the

00:23:39

Strengthening Signs of Stagflation

Mind the Macro ·

2025/12/06

On this December 5th episode, we examine a raft of data releases that together sketch a disquieting portrait of the US economy. The latest ADP report showed the economy losing 32,000 private-sector jobs in November, while the Challenger Job Cuts report registered more than 70,000 layoffs—only the third time since 2008 that November cuts have exceeded that threshold. The Beige Book echoed this deterioration, noting that firms have moved beyond hiring freezes and begun outright reductions in

00:20:53

Double Trouble: Payrolls and Processors (Nov 21 Episode)

Mind the Macro ·

2025/11/24

On this November 21st episode, we examine the government’s first employment report since the shutdown. The headline payroll figures were strong, but nearly every detail beneath them was troubling. Most of the job growth came from three sectors that are more vulnerable to economic swings and that offer lower compensation, raising questions about the quality and durability of recent hiring. The unemployment rate also edged up to 4.4 percent, adding yet another data point to the fading labor market. We

00:24:01

Stress Rising in the Shadows (Nov. 14 episode)

Mind the Macro ·

2025/11/22

On this November 14 episode we examine a market that is drifting without a single unifying negative narrative yet is steadily accumulating reasons for concern. High yield spreads are widening, and option adjusted spreads on CCC rated debt never returned to their pre Liberation Day lows. Creditors, it seems, have been pricing in greater risk for some time, and the recent rise in spreads only reinforces that view.We note as well that lending to non bank financial institutions has surged by roughly

00:24:12

Signs of Weakness in the Shutdown Fog

Mind the Macro ·

2025/11/22

This November 7, 2025 podcast opens with a sober look at a labor market that is showing clear signs of strain, despite the absence of governmental data due to the shutdown. The latest figures from Challenger Gray and Christmas show that announced layoffs now exceed one million so far this year, a threshold that in earlier cycles has been crossed only in recessions. We also assess new releases from Indeed on job openings, along with the latest reading from the ADP payroll report, both of which point

00:26:36

Losing Steam

Mind the Macro ·

2025/11/01

In this episode, we examine an unsettling mix of economic signals: a seemingly benign inflation print, rumblings in the banking system reminiscent of the pre-crisis era, the first major wave of layoffs, and growing dissent at the Federal Reserve. Markets greeted the latest CPI release with enthusiasm. Yet the details tell a darker story. The dubiously calculated shelter component has become a source of disinflation. Stripped of this measure, consumer prices rose faster than expected. At the same

00:24:14

The Bear Narrative: The Fast After the Feast

Mind the Macro ·

2025/10/24

In this episode, we take a different tack. We begin with the latest inflation figures, which offer little comfort to policymakers, before turning to the our bear case for the equity markets. From the pandemic-era flood of fiscal and monetary stimulus to the abrupt tightening that followed in 2022, the economic pendulum has swung with unusual violence. Now, as higher rates bite, the data point to a steady loss of momentum: hiring is slowing, corporate profits are softening, and consumers—once flush

00:21:25

The Beige and the Bruised

Mind the Macro ·

2025/10/23

In this episode, we dissect the latest Beige Book, which paints an increasingly uneven portrait of the American economy. Reports from the Federal Reserve’s districts point to softening retail demand, particularly among lower- and middle-income households, and to mounting strains in sectors such as agriculture, energy and transportation. We also examine the slide in the shares of business development companies—a bellwether for credit conditions in the lower reaches of corporate America—and the

00:21:06

Toil and Trouble

Mind the Macro ·

2025/10/14

While the government shutdown has temporarily silenced the flow of official macroeconomic data, other warning lights are flashing red. High-yield spreads are widening, loan-loss provisions are climbing across the banking sector, and negative revisions to corporate profits continue to erode confidence. Roughly a third of industries are already in recession—a sign that the slowdown is more pervasive than headline figures suggest. Against this backdrop, the question is no longer whether the Federal

00:22:39

Weakness in the Labor Market: Confirmed!

Mind the Macro ·

2025/10/04

In this episode, we discuss the weakness in the ADP report, Challenger Report, and JOLTS report in the context of the overall macroeconomic backdrop.

00:24:47

Mixed Signals: Housing & Regional Fed Presidents

Mind the Macro ·

2025/09/26

Markets were cheered this week by stronger-than-expected new home sales. We are less impressed. The data are notoriously volatile and often revised, offering at best a hazy snapshot of the housing market. More telling, perhaps, is the discord within the Federal Reserve. Regional presidents have struck markedly different notes from Jerome Powell’s message last week, underscoring the policy uncertainty that continues to shadow the economic outlook.

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