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Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

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12:14

Excessive heat across SA summer crop regions is worrying

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/02/19

The excessive heat across South Africa currently is a significant concern for the farming sector. The 2023/24 summer crop season started on favourable footing. We received widespread rains, which was unusual in an El Niño season, which would typically start with drier weather conditions. According to data from the Crop Estimates Committee, the farmers managed to plant a sizable summer grain and oilseed area of 4,4 million hectares, up by 0,4% from the 2022/23 season. For a while, it appeared as

11:35

Weak agricultural machinery sales

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/02/13

We start the year with reasonably weak agricultural machinery sales data. South Africa's tractor sales were down 26% y/y in January 2024, with 353 units sold. At the same time, the combine harvesters were down 50% y/y, with eight units sold. At face value, this could be viewed as a worrying agricultural machinery sales report indicating difficulties in the sector. But we have a different reading of it. This is more of a normalization after a few years of robust sales. For example, South Africa's

12:53

A promising summer grain outlook

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/02/05

South Africa could have yet another decent summer grains and oilseeds harvest in the 2023/24 production season. The data released this afternoon by the Crop Estimates Committee puts the preliminary area plantings for summer grains and oilseeds at 4,41 million hectares, up by 0,4% y/y (albeit down mildly from 4,48 million hectares of the intended area when the season started). This increase is not limited to a few crops but across most summer crops except for soybeans, where plantings possibly fell

12:04

SA to export beef to Saudi Arabia

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/01/30

One positive bit of news I noticed this past week is about South Africa's beef industry, with an encouraging headline stating, "Saudi Arabia to start South African meat imports as ban ends". This means everything is now in order for Saudi Arabia to import beef from South Africa. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has not featured prominently in South Africa's beef export markets in the past, with only small volumes last exported in the early 2000s. The renewed access to this market is critical to South

11:45

South Africa’s 2023 agricultural machinery sales were...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/01/22

South Africa’s filed crop harvest was excellent in 2022/23 season. For example, the 2022/23 maize harvest amounted to 16,4 million, which is 6% higher than the 2021/22 season's harvest and the second-largest harvest on record. Soybean harvest is at a record 2,8 million tonnes. South Africa's sugar cane crop was at 18,5 million tonnes in 2023/24, up 3% y/y. Other field crops and fruit harvests were also decent in 2023. Still, this excellent performance did not translate into overall robust

12:59

SA has a decent winter crop harvest

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/01/16

South Africa's 2023/24 winter crop season has turned out better than some feared. The data released at the end of December 2023 by the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) painted a positive picture of South Africa's winter crop harvest. In its fifth production estimate for the 2023/24 season, the CEC kept the wheat harvest estimate unchanged from the previous month, at 2,15 million tonnes. This is 2% up from the last season's crop. The only concern some producers had was the crop quality following

11:44

SA agricultural outlook for 2024

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2024/01/05

One can categorise the start of this year as positive for South Africa’s agriculture. I recently drove across the country from Pretoria to the Wild Coast, which was an opportunity to assess South Africa's agricultural conditions after the first few months of the summer season. The vegetation was welcoming and green throughout the way, having benefitted from the early summer favourable rainfall. In areas planted early in the season, the maize fields looked healthy. Other crops were also visibly in

12:12

Key challenges that constrained SA's agricultural...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/12/18

As the year draws to a close, it is worth reflecting on critical events that dominated the South African agricultural scene this year. There is three in particular that stood out. First, the intense and persistent load-shedding right from the start of the year was a significant challenge for South Africa's agriculture and agribusinesses. The impact became apparent when one considers that all of South Africa's horticulture – fruits and vegetables depend on irrigation that needs an adequate power

11:46

SA agricultural exports were robust in Q3, 2023

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/12/12

South Africa's agricultural exports amounted to US$3.9 billion in the third quarter of this year, up by 4% y/y (according to data from Trade Map). This quarter, the products that dominated the export list were citrus, maize, apples and pears, nuts, wine, soybeans, sugar, and fruit juices. This solid export activity was both a function of improvement in volumes and prices, specifically of fruits. This more than offsets the effects of lower grains and oilseed prices, which have declined notably from

12:14

Winter crops in South Africa

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/12/05

The data released this past week by the Crop Estimates Committee continue to paint a reasonably positive picture of South Africa's winter crop harvest, albeit with minor downward monthly revisions of the crop size. The primary issue on farmers' minds is perhaps not crop size but the deterioration in quality following heavy floods in the Western Cape in September. The Western Cape is a significant producer of winter crops, accounting for roughly two-thirds of South Africa's total winter crop

14:13

Food prices in South Africa

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/11/27

Food inflation has been topical over the past few months, and South Africa saw double-digit levels from mid-2022 to mid-2023. This was not unique to South Africa but a global phenomenon underpinned by various factors, including drought in South America, China's strong demand for grains and oilseed, higher energy prices, and the Russia-Ukraine war, amongst other factors. Positively, from March 2023, South Africa's consumer food price inflation began to slow, from 14,4% at that time to 8,0% in

12:33

SA farm jobs up

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/11/21

The solid production conditions in South Africa's agricultural sector continue to be reflected in the employment data. For example, the data released today by Statistics South Africa showed that in the third quarter of 2023, about 956 000 people were employed in primary agriculture, up 10% year-on-year (and 7% quarter-on-quarter). This is well above the long-term agricultural employment of 793 000. From a regional perspective, the Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Northern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, North

12:54

Biosecurity challenges in SA agriculture

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/11/13

One aspect that remains a major challenge for the domestic animal farming sector and has been raised by our members in various engagements for some time is the weaknesses in South Africa's biosecurity system. Admittedly, biosecurity breaches are not uniquely South African and have become a significant challenge globally. We frequently hear of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in cattle, African Swine Fever in pigs and Avian Influenza in poultry worldwide. However, very few countries have had to deal with

12:53

Prospects for solid summer crop harvest in SA in...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/10/30

Although El Niño is on our doorstep, we have generally held an optimistic view about South Africa's 2023/24 summer grains and oilseed production season. The excellent soil moisture from the past rainy seasons and prospects of rainfall throughout 2023 have convinced us that there may still be decent summer grain and oilseed plantings. The South African Weather Service expects the El Niño induced dryness or below-normal rainfall to mainly be a reality from the start of 2024 and the current year to

12:48

South Africa's food security conditions

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/10/23

October 16th marks World Food Day, a celebration of the founding of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization in 1945. This day is also an opportunity for countries to reflect on their food security conditions and efforts to boost agricultural production. Thus, today, we revisit an aspect we discussed a year ago: food security conditions in South Africa. One of the measures some researchers often use to evaluate the food security condition of each country relative to the world is The

13:18

Eggs and poultry supply constraints in South Africa

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/10/17

The topical issue in South Africa's agriculture currently is the avian influenza spreading across South Africa. The most dominant strains are the highly pathogenic H5 and H7. The most affected provinces so far are Gauteng, Mpumalanga, Free State, Limpopo and North West. We understand that over a hundred mostly commercial facilities have reported avian influenza cases so far. Notably, there are reported losses in parental stock for breeders of layers and in broilers. For this reason, there are now

15:23

Western Cape Floods and Agricultural Conditions

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/10/09

The Western Cape, which accounts for over two-thirds of South Africa's winter crops and a large share of wine grapes and various horticulture products, faced another heavy and destructive flood this past week. The rainfall peak was mainly the Bredasdorp in the Southern Overberg region. Significant damages to farm infrastructure, electricity supply and road networks are reported in various small farming towns of the province, mainly the southern areas. Still, the impact of the floods on wine grapes

7:09

Quick Comment on the Avian Flu in SA

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/10/05

This is a quick comment on the current avian flu in South Africa. The segment is mainly to update the listeners of the podcast on this topical issue Wandile Sihlobo website

17:06

SA summer crop harvest and prospects for new season

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/10/02

Last week, South Africa's Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) released its 2022/23 8th summer crop production forecasts. In these production estimates, there were no new surprises or significant adjustments to the existing forecasts. For example, if we can highlight maize, the 2022/23 commercial harvest is 16,4 million tonnes, roughly unchanged from August figures (-0,09% m/m). This crop is 6% more than the 2021/22 season and the second-largest harvest on record. The expected ample harvest is primarily

14:41

Summer crop planting prospects in South Africa

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2023/09/26

We are three weeks into the start of South Africa's 2023/24 summer crop production season. The uncertainty regarding the intensity of the El Niño weather event as well as the, possible higher temperatures and lower-than-normal rainfall that this could bring is still a concern. However, the latest message from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) through their Seasonal Climate Watch on 28 August 2023 was encouraging, stating that "the multi-model rainfall forecast indicates above-normal

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