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Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

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7:54

The African continent is at the heart of South...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2026/03/30

When we consider exports in South Africa’s agriculture, we typically overlook the importance of the African continent. Such an approach is wrong; the continent is central to our agricultural export success so far. In 2025, South Africa’s agriculture exported a record US$15.1 billion, up 10% from a year ago. Nearly half of these exports went to the African continent. Indeed, the continent’s prominence differs product by product. Still, there is no way we would have been able to enjoy this export

7:28

The Middle East remains a key potential export market...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2026/03/26

South Africa's agricultural exports to the Middle East, worth US$1.3 billion in 2025, or 8% of overall agricultural exports, are at risk from this crisis. Shipping costs are rising. Agricultural businesses that export to the Middle East will now be exploring whether other markets can absorb their products. South Africa's citrus, strawberry, and maize harvest seasons will soon begin across the country, and as the conflict in the Middle East drags on, trade interruptions will persist. While the

6:34

Is it not too soon to be considering food price...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2026/03/18

South Africa indeed transports much of its agriculture and food products by road. For example, 80% of South African staple grain products are transported by road. We see similar volumes in other commodities. Agricultural products are also processed in certain regions and then transported to various consumption points. This means that fuel price changes affect food prices through adjustments in distribution costs. Still, such fuel price changes in some products take a while to be passed through

8:05

South Africa will likely miss its maize export...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2026/03/16

South Africa may miss its maize export forecast of 2.4 million tonnes for the 2025-26 marketing year, which ends in April. The exports so far are at 1.7 million tonnes as of the first week of March 2026. Given a softer weekly export pace, it is unlikely that the country will see strong enough momentum in the remaining weeks of the current marketing year to reach the 2.4 million tonnes seasonal forecast for maize exports. The challenge is the softer global demand, not supply availability. I discuss

10:17

Why are South African farmers feeling downbeat about...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2026/03/12

A day after we received robust agricultural GDP data, showing that the sector’s gross value added grew by 17.4% year-on-year in 2025, following a -8.4% year-on-year contraction in 2024, some may wonder why the sentiment indicators suggest a subdued mood.In data released on March 11, we learned that after rising for much of last year, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) fell by 18 points in Q1 2026 to 49, the lowest level since Q3 2024. The current ACI level of 49 is just under the

8:05

How the Middle East issues will likely impact South...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2026/03/08

We are watching the worrying developments in the Middle East. The region is key to South Africa's agriculture, both for exports and for its influence on oil and gas prices. Listen to the podcast for our early impression. Wandile Sihlobo website

10:42

South Africa’s agricultural outlook for 2026 remains...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2026/01/10

We are in another favourable agricultural season in South Africa, with favourable rains that enabled the farmers to plant and supported the grazing veld for the livestock industry. This builds on a better agricultural performance in 2025, a year of La Niña rains that supported the sector. The only significant risk at the moment is foot-and-mouth disease, which continues to weigh on South Africa’s cattle industry. The Department of Agriculture is undertaking a nationwide vaccination campaign against

11:11

SA farmers are upbeat about business conditions in...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/12/07

After falling for two consecutive quarters, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) increased by 5 points to 67 in Q4 2025. Favourable weather conditions, strong exports throughout the year on the back of ample grains, oilseeds, and horticulture harvests, as well as better port efficiencies, are among the key drivers of optimism in the sector. We suspect that the announcement of nationwide vaccination of cattle against foot-and-mouth disease also contributed to the upbeat mood, as the

8:22

SA agricultural conditions

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/11/30

We continue to receive encouraging notes about the prospects of La Niña in the 2025-26 summer season. The La Niña-induced rains will help support field crops, horticulture, and grazing veld for livestock. The farmers are optimistic and plan to increase area plantings, primarily of field crops.One aspect of the agricultural sector that has posed a significant challenge is the livestock industry, which struggles with foot-and-mouth disease. But South Africa is embarking on vaccination nationwide

9:16

The G20 places a spotlight on the global hunger problem

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/11/23

About 720 million people continued to experience hunger in 2024, and 2.6 billion people were unable to afford healthy diets. It is this reality that compelled the G20 Leaders' Declaration in Johannesburg to shine a spotlight on global food insecurity challenges correctly. Countries can explore many interventions to resolve this challenge, from improving agricultural productivity to easing trade. Listen to the podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

8:23

The rainy weather is an excellent start to the...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/11/17

Various regions of South Africa have started receiving the 2025-26 summer rains. The rains will help ensure that the agricultural season begins on time and that we have excellent production conditions. The farmers are relatively optimistic, having suggested that they intend to plant 4.5 million hectares of summer grains and oilseeds, a 1% increase from the 2024-25 season. Importantly, the favourable rains also help improve the grazing veld for livestock, and are beneficial to the horticulture

10:23

The US recent tariff modification may be favourable...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/11/16

The U.S. decision to modify its reciprocal tariffs and exempt some food products is a positive step towards easing agricultural trade friction, which is costly to both exporting countries and U.S. consumers. The exempted products include coffee and tea, fruit juices, cocoa, and spices, as well as avocados, bananas, coconuts, guavas, limes, oranges, mangoes, plantains, pineapples, various peppers and tomatoes, beef, and additional fertilisers. The U.S. government took this positive policy step in an

9:25

The unforgiving winters and summers of the beautiful...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/11/14

The Karoo region of South Africa experiences intense weather conditions, with often extremely hot summers and bitterly cold winters. It is these extreme weather conditions that nurture the distinct vegetation of the region, which is a source of feed for the sheep industry there. The Karoo lamb has a unique and supreme taste due to the distinct vegetation. But there are times when extreme heat and dryness can cause worries about the vegetation, and there were certainly areas where farmers were

10:11

The African governments must help farmers

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/11/13

The African government must do everything possible to assist farmers during the 2025-26 production season. In the past, when confronted with disasters and food shortages, we had relied on organisations such as the World Food Programme for assistance. This time around, the World Food Programme is no longer fit to assist if we run into challenges. Hence, thinking about the future, we have to do whatever we can to help farmers get out into the fields and till the land, so they can have an ample

12:14

Agricultural job prospects remain positive in South...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/11/12

South Africa’s agriculture continues to create job opportunities, and its long-term job creation prospects remain positive. If we look at the high-frequency data for a moment, the number of farm jobs in South Africa has increased slightly from the second quarter of 2025, by 2% to 920k in the third quarter. We see the quarterly improvements mainly in some field crops, horticulture, forestry, and in the production of organic fertiliser. The increase in jobs reflects the optimism generated by the

8:38

South Africa's 2025-26 winter crop production...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/11/09

This is a busy period in South African farming. The summer crop farmers are tilling the land for the new season, table grape farmers are harvesting, and the winter crop farmers are harvesting.South Africa’s 2025-26 winter wheat season began at the start of October. But we are seeing that farmers have begun delivering the new season crop, which was planted from the start of May. In the first five weeks of this year, farmers have delivered about 425,190 tonnes of wheat to commercial silos. These

11:37

Dispel false narratives about the South African...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/11/08

We must dispel the false narrative that South Africa’s farming sector is under siege. This sector has flourished since the dawn of democracy in 1994. We have seen its value more than double, and exports are expanding. We are now the only African country in the top 40 global agricultural exporters. If there were indeed an attack on the farming sector, we wouldn’t be seeing such success. Another danger we must not underestimate is the negative image the false narratives create. We are an

12:25

Grain abundance in South Africa bodes well for...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/11/02

South Africa's 2024-25 summer grain and oilseeds production season was excellent. In its 9th production estimate, released on October 28, 2025, the Crop Estimate Committee raised South Africa's 2024-25 production by 1% from the September estimate to 20.08 million tonnes. This figure comprises maize, soybean, sunflower seed, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans. The upward revision was mainly on maize, while other production estimates remained unchanged from the September figure. The current

10:48

SA agriculture is in a busy period, with a promising...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/10/26

We are in a period of relatively high activity in South Africa’s agriculture. Farmers across the country are tilling the land to mark the start of the 2025-26 summer crop season. We also see some activity in the vegetable fields as farmers prepare for the season ahead. The outlook is positive as we are in a La Niña period. There is also increased activity in the winter crop-growing regions of the country, with farmers beginning harvest of the 2025-26 crop, which was planted in May 2025. We may

7:28

South Africa's maize exports to Zimbabwe continue, as...

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo ·

2025/10/13

In the week of September 26 and October 3, 2025, Zimbabwe imported 34,093 tonnes of maize from South Africa. These imports are at a time when Zimbabwe has previously announced a ban on maize imports, an effort that was set to provide the local producers space to sell their produce to the domestic users. What then is happening here? Listen to the podcast for more information. Richard Humphries and Sam Mkokeli produce this podcast. Wandile Sihlobo website

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Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

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