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Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life

science mathematics

All Episodes

8:58

Numbers of the year 2024

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2024/12/28

It’s that time of year again, the time when we ask some of our favourite statistically-inclined people for their numbers of the year. We present them to you - from falling birth rates in India to children saved by vaccines. Contributors: RukminiS, Data for India Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Cambridge University, Hannah Ritchie, Our World in Data. Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producers: Lizzy McNeill and Vicky Baker Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Sound Engineer: Donald

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8:58

Did Mussolini make the trains run on time?

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2024/12/21

“Say what you like about Mussolini but he did make the trains run on time.” This phrase is the political equivalent of “every cloud has a silver lining” – but does it have any factual basis? Mussolini’s dictatorship in Italy was full of atrocities, brutal suppression and propaganda. Did it also create a more efficient railway network? We speak to Professor Ruth Ben-Ghiat about the truth of the claim and why the Mussolini regime wanted us to believe it. Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer:

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8:58

How many Americans live ‘paycheck to paycheck’?

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2024/12/14

Are most Americans barely holding their head above water when it comes to personal finances?That’s what various US politicians and news outlets keep suggesting. They can’t stop using a statistic about people living “paycheck to paycheck”. But what does this really mean? We go behind the headlines to unpick the numbers. Contributor: Ben Krauss, journalist Presenter: Charlotte McDonald Producer: Vicky Baker and Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie

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9:56

Did one in 10 Greeks die in World War Two?

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2024/12/07

When World War Two came to Greece, a period of terrible human suffering followed. There was a brutal battle with Italian and then Nazi forces, followed by an occupation in which thousands were executed and a terrible famine swept the nation. There’s an often repeated number that appears to capture the brutality of this time – that 10% of the Greek population died during the war. We investigate where this statistic comes from and whether it is true. Presenter: Charlotte McDonaldProducer: Tom

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8:59

Can Elon Musk save the US Government $2 trillion?

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2024/11/30

President Elect Donald Trump has created a new government advisory group – the Department of Government Efficiency or ‘DOGE’ - to help cut the US budget. The world richest man, Elon Musk, will co-head the department and has pledged to cut ‘at least $2 trillion’ to ‘balance the budget’. But is this possible? We talk to Professor Linda Bilmes about what DOGE could or couldn’t do and how she balanced the budget in the 1990’s. Presenter: Charlotte McDonaldProducer: Lizzy McNeill Series producer: Tom

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8:56

Do fossil fuels get $7 trillion in subsidies?

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2024/11/23

Governments around the world have promised to fight climate change. But are they also pumping an absolutely massive amount of money into subsidies for fossil fuels? In 2022, an IMF working paper estimated that global subsidies for fossil fuels totalled $7 trillion. But when you dig into that research, you find that this number might not mean what you think it does. We explain how they reached that conclusion, with the help of Angela Picciariello from the International Institute for Sustainable

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8:59

Did 20 million votes really go missing in the US...

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2024/11/16

Just hours after Donald Trump claimed victory in the US presidential election, rumours started swirling that something was afoot. A graph went viral on social media that appeared to show there were 20 million more votes cast in 2020 than in the 2024 election. Where had these supposedly “missing” votes gone? Conspiracy theorists on both sides of the political spectrum began shouting claims of fraud. The answer, it turns out, is rather more straightforward. Presenter: Charlotte

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10:00

Do we have enough clothes for the next six generations?

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2024/11/09

A huge quantity of clothing is produced every year around the world. But is so much made that there are already enough tops, trousers, skirts and all the rest to clothe humanity for decades into the future? That’s a claim that has been percolating around the internet recently, that there are already enough clothes for the next six generations. Tim Harford and Beth Ashmead Latham explore the source of this claim and, with help from Sabina Lawreniuk from Nottingham University, find that the evidence

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8:57

What can economics learn from sport?

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2024/11/02

The great theories of economics seem to have great explanatory power, but the actual world is often far too complicated and messy to fully test them out. Professor Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, an economist at the London School of Economics has an answer – sport. In the contained setting of competitive sport, he says, the rules are clear and you know who is doing what. This means, with some analysis, you can see vibrant illustrations of well-known economic theories playing out before your eyes. Ignacio

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28:01

Are older drivers more dangerous?

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2024/10/30

Could the cut in winter fuel payments cost thousands of lives?Is it really true that criminals sentenced to three years will be out of prison in two months? Are older drivers more dangerous than young ones? Do Southeastern Railway shift 50 million leaves from their lines?Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Bethan Ashmead Latham and Nathan Gower Producer: Natasha Fernandes Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound

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10:07

Is Trump right about violent crime in Venezuela and...

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2024/10/26

On the campaign trail for the US presidency, former president Donald Trump has been saying that the US is becoming a more dangerous than Venezuela.He also claims that the crime data for the US that the FBI collects is missing the most violent cities. Is he right? Tim Harford investigates, with the help of Bastian Herre from Our World in Data and Jay Albanese from Virginia Commonwealth University.Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Bethan Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production

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28:19

Do US crime statistics miss out the most violent cities?

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2024/10/23

Was an MP wrong about the number of people who pay capital gains tax?Why is 2% the magic number for the rate of inflation?Donald Trump says US crime figures are fake. Are they?How do you work out how many buffaloberries a bear eats in a day?And we fact-check a claim about the prevalence of suicide among GPs. For information and support follow this link: https://www.bbc.co.uk/actionlineTim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.Presenter: Tim HarfordReporters: Nathan Gower and Bethan

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8:55

Nobel prize: Why are some countries so much richer...

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2024/10/19

The question of why some countries are rich and some poor has been described as the most important question in economics. Perhaps that is why the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson for their work on the importance of institutions in the economic fortunes of nation states. Tim Harford explains the economic theory that underpins their award.Presenter: Charlotte McDonaldReporter: Tim Harford Producer:

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28:43

When are numbers like a horse at a gymkhana?

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2024/10/16

Can we teach BBC political editor Chris Mason some new maths skills?Do 60 of the UK’s richest people pay 100% tax? Have water bills fallen in real terms since 2010? When it comes to HPV and cervical cancer, is zero a small number?Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Nathan Gower and Bethan Ashmead Latham Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sarah Hockley Editor: Richard Vadon

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8:57

Uncertainty, probability and double yoked eggs

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2024/10/12

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter is one of the great communicators of probability and uncertainty. His new book, The Art of Uncertainty, explains how to approach uncertainty, luck, probability and ignorance. Tim Harford talks to Sir David about double yoked eggs, the Bay of Pigs, and his top tips for politicians who want to communicate evidence and uncertainty. Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: John Scott Editor: Richard Vadon

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27:55

Should the government target persnuffle?

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2024/10/09

Are childhood obesity rates going down? Do 35 million birds die every year in the UK after hitting windows? How much money could the Chancellor find by changing the debt rule? And Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter contemplates the probability of his own conception.Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news, and in life. Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Charlotte MacDonald Producers: Bethan Ashmead Latham, Natasha Fernandes and Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production

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10:13

Are 672 billion pounds of corn eaten in the US every...

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2024/10/05

National Geographic magazine recently wrote that “people in the United States eat more than 672 billion pounds of corn per year, which breaks down to more than 2,000 pounds per person annually”.Is this really true? Tim Harford investigates all the things that we don’t eat, that are counted in this number. Presenter: Tim HarfordProducer: Bethan Ashmead Latham Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Giles Aspen Editor: Richard Vadon

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28:42

How do you breed seventeen octillion rats?

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2024/10/02

Are GPs really working less hours per week?Does Wetherspoons really pay one in every £1000 of tax in the UK? Are more people in the UK economically inactive? How long does it take two rats to produce 17 octillion rats?Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Natasha Fernandes and Bethan Ashmead-Latham Producer: Nathan Gower Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison Sound mix: Sarah Hockley Editor: Richard Vadon

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8:58

The puzzles you’re meant to get wrong

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2024/09/28

Why do some puzzles make us immediately leap to the wrong conclusion?That’s the subject of Alex Bellos’ new book Think Twice, which has page after page of questions designed to deceive.Alex sets Tim Harford some of his favourite puzzles. Presenter: Tim Harford Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Katie Morrison and Janet Staples Sound mix: Donald MacDonald Editor: Richard Vadon

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28:37

Could the winter fuel cut cost more than it saves?

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2024/09/25

The government is encouraging pensioners to claim pension credit in order to remain eligible for winter fuel payments. Will people sign up - and might that end up costing the exchequer more than it saves?The Office for National Statistics has downgraded the status of a new statistic aiming to measure how many people are transgender. What went wrong?Cancer appears to be on the rise in people under 50. But are more people dying?And try your hand at a puzzle you’re likely to get wrong.Tim Harford

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