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PODCAST

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Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life

science mathematics

All Episodes

8:57

Halloween special: How many people did the real...

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2025/10/31

Vlad III Dracula, the Wallachian Prince who became Bram Stokers inspiration behind his famous vampire 'Count Dracula,' was a brutal ruler. So brutal that history dubbed him 'Vlad the Impaler' due to his penchant for that particularly gruesome form of execution. Which, without going into too much detail, involved driving a large stake or pole through someone's body - often vertically. Chroniclers and historians claim that he impaled over 20,000 people during his reigns which, if true is a very, very

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8:58

Is your housework split sexist?

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2025/10/25

Do you ever have fights with your partner about who does more of the housework and whether it’s fair? Well data might have the answer. Corinne Low is an associate professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. She analyses surveys of how people spend their time, particularly in terms of “home production” - that is things like cooking and cleaning, and “market work”, that is, paid work. If you’re the male half of a heterosexual couple, then she’s got some stats you should

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8:56

Nobel economics prize 2025: What's the big idea?

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2025/10/18

Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt have been awarded this year’s Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.The three are sharing 11 million Swedish kronor, over a million dollars, after being recognised for their work in the area of “innovation-driven economic growth”. But why does this area matter and what did the three economists actually do? We turn the tables on our presenter Tim Harford, to explain all.If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, let us

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28:38

Are millions of people getting Motability cars for...

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2025/10/15

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:The Conservative party conference has been told that millions of people are getting free cars from the government because they have ADHD and anxiety. Is that right?The chair of the Labour party says that only 3% of farmers will be affected by proposed changes to inheritance tax. Is that true?The charity Movember claim that two in five men die too young. What does that really mean?And Tim’s mid-life crisis has manifested itself in a

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8:58

Are 72% of prison inmates in Switzerland foreign?

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2025/10/11

In a recent speech to the UN, US president Donald Trump set out some remarkable figures on the proportion of inmates in European prisons who were foreign nationals.Citing statistics from the Council of Europe, he references Greece, Germany and Austria, as having rates around 50%.“In Switzerland, beautiful Switzerland,” he said “72% of the people in prisons are from outside of Switzerland.”These numbers are correct, but why are the percentages so high – particularly in Switzerland?Tim Harford speaks

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26:40

Does half the UK get more in benefits than they pay...

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2025/10/08

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:The Daily Mail says that over half of the UK population live in households that get more in benefits than they pay in tax - is it true?Do some billionaires earn more in a night than the population of Bournemouth earns in a year? New Green leader Zack Polanski seems to think so - we scrutinise the figures.Are older generations getting smarter?Have 77% of Gen-Z brought a parent along to a job interview? Really?If you’ve seen a number

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8:58

Is the world getting less miserable?

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2025/10/04

When you follow the news, particularly in countries like the UK and the US, it sometimes feels like people are less optimistic about their lives than they were in the past.But a new piece of analysis from polling company Gallup suggests this might just be the local view, not the global one. Using data from the Gallup World Poll, it suggests that “people in more countries are living better lives and expressing more hope for the future” than at any point in the last decade.Tim Harford speaks to

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28:24

Has Donald Trump ended seven 'unendable' wars?

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2025/10/01

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:US President Donald Trump claims he has ended seven “unendable” wars. Is that true?Chancellor Rachel Reeves says the UK was the fastest growing economy in the G7 for the first six months of 2025. What do you need to know about that stat?The Daily Mail has described a recent scientific paper as describing a global cancer “explosion”. Is that the whole story?And why have Oxford and Cambridge dropped down a university league table?If

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8:58

The Case of the Missing US Data

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2025/09/27

In early February 2025, something strange started happening across US government websites. Decades of data began disappearing from webpages for agencies such as the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health and the Census Bureau. In many cases the entire website went dark. Within a few days some 8,000 government pages and 3,000 datasets had been taken down. Since then, many have been reinstated - but some have not. We speak to Professors Maggie Levinstein and

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28:48

Was it easier to deport migrants to France before...

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2025/09/24

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey says it was easier to deport illegal migrants to Europe when we were in the EU. Is that true?Did the governor of the Bank of England get his numbers wrong on the UK’s ageing population?Why is the price of beef up by 25% in a year?Is it possible to prove that MPs are using AI to write their speeches?If you’ve seen a number you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter:

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8:58

Is JD Vance right about left-wing violence?

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2025/09/20

On September the 10th 2025, right-wing political activist and media personality Charlie Kirk was assassinated while speaking at an event in Utah. In the aftermath, his friend JD Vance, the US Vice President, hosted a special memorial edition of ‘The Charlie Kirk Show’, live from the White House, during which he called for unity, but said that could only be found by “climbing the mountain of truth”. “While our side of the aisle certainly has its crazies, it is a statistical fact that most of the

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29:09

Is it true that out-of-work benefits have almost...

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2025/09/17

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:Nigel Farage says 6.5 million people are on out-of-work benefits – with some benefits up 80% since 2018. Are those numbers right?Do French pensioners really earn more than their working-age compatriots?How is it possible for one kilogram of fish food to produce one kilogram of salmon?And do we really have five senses?If you’ve seen a number you think we should take a look at, email the team: moreorless@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Tim

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8:58

Will the world really be 50 million workers short by...

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2025/09/13

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says the world faces a severe labour shortage – 50 million workers by the end of the decade.The boss of the world’s most valuable company thinks humanoid robots will be needed to fill the gap.But is this prediction based on solid evidence?Tim Harford looks at the calculations behind the claim with Rajiv Gupta, a technology expert at Boston Consulting Group, who is the likely source of the 50 million figure.If you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should look at,

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28:26

Are Afghan nationals more likely to be convicted of...

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2025/09/10

Tim Harford looks at some of the numbers in the news. This week:Is it true that interest payments on the UK’s national debt are equivalent to £240 per month for everyone in the country?Reform UK claim that Afghan migrants are 22 times more likely to be convicted of sex offences. Is that number correct?We try to make sense of a claim that one in 10 women are being driven to leave work by their menopause symptoms.And we investigate a claim comparing the speed of a snail and the war in Ukraine.If

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8:57

Do 11,000 sharks die every hour?

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2025/09/06

Hollywood has given sharks a terrible reputation. But in reality, the finned fish should be far more scared of us, than we of them.Millions of sharks are killed in fishing nets and lines every year.One statistical claim seems to sum up the scale of this slaughter – that 100 million sharks are killed every year, or roughly 11,000 per hour.But how was this figure calculated, and what exactly does it mean?We go straight to the source and speak to the researcher who worked it out, Dr Boris Worm, a

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8:58

Are self-driving cars safer than cars with drivers?

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2025/08/30

Fully autonomous cars are here. In a handful of cities across the US and China, robotaxis are transporting human passengers around town, but with no human behind the wheel.Loyal Listener Amberish wrote in to More or Less to ask about a couple of safety statistics he’d seen regarding these self-driving cars on social media. These claimed that Waymo self-driving taxis were five times safer than human drivers in the US, and that Tesla’s self-driving cars are 10 times safer. But, are these claims true

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8:57

Do women feel the cold more than men?

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2025/08/23

Are office temperatures set too low in the summer for women to be comfortable? This idea has featured in news headlines and comedy videos which describe the summer as a “women’s winter”. But is there evidence behind the claims of a gender bias in air conditioning? To find out, we speak to Gail Brager, Director of the Center for Environmental Design Research at UC Berkeley, and Boris Kingma, a senior researcher at CNO, the Netherlands Applied Research Institute.Presenter: Lizzy McNeill Producer:

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8:58

How weird was the Med Sea heatwave?

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2025/08/16

In early July, the Mediterranean Sea experienced a marine heatwave. The surface of the water reached temperatures of 30 degrees in some places. A social media post at the time claimed that some of these sea temperatures were so different to the normal sea temperature at this time of year, that the sea was experiencing a “1-in-216,000,000,000-year sea temperature anomaly”. This would suggest that the likelihood of the event was on a timescale far longer than the amount of time the entire universe

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8:58

Why it matters that Trump fired data chief

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2025/08/09

On Friday 1st August the US Bureau of Labor Statistics put out their job report data for August. It included revisions to their estimates for the jobs created in May and June which stated there were 258,000 fewer jobs than they had previously estimated.This news was not received well by the White House. President Trump fired the head of the bureau, Erika McEntarfer, calling the numbers ‘phony, rigged, a scam’ and spreading conspiracy theories that McEntarfer had fudged the data. We speak to

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8:58

Are abortion numbers rising in the US?

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2025/08/06

In June 2022 the United States Supreme Court passed what became known as ‘the Dobbs decision’. In doing so they overturned the long standing constitutional right for women to access abortion in the US. Since then a number of states have banned abortion completely with many others having highly prohibitive rules. You’d expect the numbers of abortions to go down. They haven’t. How is it possible that more people are accessing abortions in a post Dobbs society and why is it not true that states

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