PODCAST

Doom Debates

Liron Shapira

It"s time to talk about the end of the world! lironshapira.substack.com

technology

All Episodes

104:39

AI Doom Debate: Tilek Mamutov vs. Liron Shapira

Doom Debates ·

2024/07/26

Tilek Mamutov is a Kyrgyzstani software engineer who worked at Google X for 11 years before founding his own international software engineer recruiting company, Outtalent.Since first encountering the AI doom argument at a Center for Applied Rationality bootcamp 10 years ago, he considers it a serious possibility, but he doesn’t currently feel convinced that doom is likely.Let’s explore Tilek’s worldview and pinpoint where he gets off the doom train and why!00:12 Tilek’s Background01:43 Life in

92:34

Liron Reacts to Mike Israetel's "Solving the AI...

Doom Debates ·

2024/07/18

Dr. Mike Israetel is a well-known bodybuilder and fitness influencer with over 600,000 Instagram followers, and a surprisingly intelligent commentator on other subjects, including a whole recent episode on the AI alignment problem:Mike brought up many interesting points that were worth responding to, making for an interesting reaction episode. I also appreciate that he’s helping get the urgent topic of AI alignment in front of a mainstream audience.Unfortunately, Mike doesn’t engage with the

71:02

Robin Hanson Highlights and Post-Debate Analysis

Doom Debates ·

2024/07/12

What did we learn from my debate with Robin Hanson? Did we successfully isolate the cruxes of disagreement? I actually think we did!In this post-debate analysis, we’ll review what those key cruxes are, and why I still think I’m right and Robin is wrong about them!I’ve taken the time to think much harder about everything Robin said during the debate, so I can give you new & better counterarguments than the ones I was able to make in realtime.Timestamps00:00 Debate Reactions06:08 AI Timelines and Key

128:35

Robin Hanson vs. Liron Shapira: Is Near-Term...

Doom Debates ·

2024/07/08

Robin Hanson is a legend in the rationality community and one of my biggest intellectual influences.In 2008, he famously debated Eliezer Yudkowsky about AI doom via a sequence of dueling blog posts known as the great Hanson-Yudkowsky Foom Debate. This debate picks up where Hanson-Yudkowsky left off, revisiting key arguments in the light of recent AI advances.My position is similar to Eliezer's: P(doom) is on the order of 50%. Robin's position is shockingly different: P(doom) is below 1%.00:00

49:01

Preparing for my AI Doom Debate with Robin Hanson

Doom Debates ·

2024/07/05

This episode is a comprehensive preparation session for my upcoming debate on AI doom with the legendary Robin Hanson.Robin’s P(doom) is <1% while mine is 50%. How do we reconcile this?I’ve researched past debates, blogs, tweets, and scholarly discussions related to AI doom, and plan to focus our debate on the cruxes of disagreement between Robin’s position and my own Eliezer Yudkowsky-like position.Key topics include the probability of humanity’s extinction due to uncontrollable AGI, alignment

92:42

Robin Hanson debate prep: Liron argues *against* AI...

Doom Debates ·

2024/06/30

I’ve been studying Robin Hanson’s catalog of writings and interviews in preparation for our upcoming AI doom debate. Now I’m doing an exercise where I step into Robin’s shoes, and make the strongest possible case for his non-doom position!This exercise is called the Ideological Turing Test, and it’s based on the idea that it’s only productive to argue against someone if you understand what you’re arguing against. Being able to argue *for* a position proves that you understand it.My guest David Xu is

65:20

AI Doom Q&A

Doom Debates ·

2024/06/26

Today I'm answering questions from listener Tony Warren.1:16 Biological imperatives in machine learning2:22 Evolutionary pressure vs. AI training4:15 Instrumental convergence and AI goals6:46 Human vs. AI problem domains9:20 AI vs. human actuators18:04 Evolution and intelligence33:23 Maximum intelligence54:55 Computational limits and the futureFollow Tony: https://x.com/Pove_iOS---Doom Debates catalogues all the different stops where people get off the "doom train", all the different reasons people

56:42

AI Doom Debate: Will AGI’s analysis paralysis save...

Doom Debates ·

2024/06/22

My guest Rob thinks superintelligent AI will suffer from analysis paralysis from trying to achieve a 100% probability of killing humanity. Since AI won’t be satisfied with 99.9% of defeating us, it won’t dare to try, and we’ll live!Doom Debates catalogues all the different stops where people get off the “doom train”, all the different reasons people haven’t (yet) followed the train of logic to the conclusion that humanity is doomed.Follow Rob: https://x.com/LoB_BlacksageIf you want to get the full

28:26

AI Doom Debate: Steven Pinker vs. Liron Shapira

Doom Debates ·

2024/06/21

Today I’m debating the one & only Professor Steven Pinker!!! Well, I kind of am, in my head. Let me know if you like this format…Dr. Pinker is optimistic that AI doom worries are overblown. But I find his arguments shallow, and I’m disappointed with his overall approach to the AI doom discourse.Here’s the full video of Steven Pinker talking to Michael C. Moynihan on this week’s episode of “Honestly with Bari Weiss”: https://youtube.com/watch?v=mTuH1Ucbif4If you want to get the full Doom Debates

26:15

AI Doom Debate: What's a plausible alignment scenario?

Doom Debates ·

2024/06/20

RJ, a pseudonymous listener, volunteered to debate me.Follow RJ: https://x.com/impershblknightIf you want to get the full Doom Debates experience, it's as easy as doing 4 separate things:1. Join my Substack - https://doomdebates.com2. Search "Doom Debates" to subscribe in your podcast player3. Subscribe to YouTube videos - https://youtube.com/@doomdebates4. Follow me on Twitter - https://x.com/liron This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to

11:54

Q&A: How scary is a superintelligent football coach?

Doom Debates ·

2024/06/18

Danny asks:> You've said that an intelligent AI would lead to doom because it would be an excellent goal-to-action mapper. A great football coach like Andy Reid is a great goal-to-action mapper. He's on the sidelines, but he knows exactly what actions his team needs to execute to achieve the goal and win the game. > But if he had a team of chimpanzees or elementary schoolers, or just players who did not want to cooperate, then his team would not execute his plans and they would lose. And even his

77:11

AI Doom Debate: George Hotz vs. Liron Shapira

Doom Debates ·

2024/06/17

Today I’m going to play you my debate with the brilliant hacker and entrepreneur, George Hotz.This took place on an X Space last August.Prior to our debate, George had done a debate with Eliezer Yudkowsky on Dwarkesh Podcast:Follow George: https://x.com/realGeorgeHotzFollow Liron: https://x.com/liron This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit lironshapira.substack.com

56:29

Should we gamble on AGI before all 8 billion of us die?

Doom Debates ·

2024/06/16

Chase Mann claims accelerating AGI timelines is the best thing we can do for the survival of the 8 billion people alive today.I claim pausing AI is still the highest-expected-utility decision for everyone.Who do you agree with? Comment on my Substack/X/YouTube and let me know!Follow Chase:https://x.com/ChaseMannFollow Liron:https://x.com/lironLessWrong has some great posts about cryonics: https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/cryonics This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other

33:29

Can humans judge AI's arguments?

Doom Debates ·

2024/06/14

It’s a monologue episode!Robin Hanson’s blog: https://OvercomingBias.comRobin Hanson’s famous concept, the Great Filter: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_FilterRobin Hanson’s groundbreaking 2021 solution to the Fermi Paradox: https://GrabbyAliens.comRobin Hanson’s conversation with Ronny Fernandez about AI doom from May 2023: My tweet about whether we can hope to control superintelligent AI by judging its explanations and arguments: https://x.com/liron/status/1798135026166698239Zvi Mowshowitz’s

39:35

What this "Doom Debates" podcast is about

Doom Debates ·

2024/06/12

Welcome and thanks for listening!* Why is Liron finally starting a podcast?* Who does Liron want to debate?* What’s the debate format?* What are Liron’s credentials?* Is someone “rational” like Liron actually just a religious cult member?Follow Ori on Twitter: https://x.com/ygrowthcoMake sure to subscribe for more episodes! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit lironshapira.substack.com

38:59

AI Doom Debate: Liron Shapira vs. Kelvin Santos

Doom Debates ·

2024/06/10

Kelvin is optimistic that the forces of economic competition will keep AIs sufficiently aligned with humanity by the time they become superintelligent.He thinks AIs and humans will plausibly use interoperable money systems (powered by crypto).So even if our values diverge, the AIs will still uphold a system that respects ownership rights, such that humans may hold onto a nontrivial share of capital with which to pursue human values.I view these kinds of scenarios as wishful thinking with probability

116 results

Doom Debates

All Episodes

Similar Podcasts

Lead With AI

Tamara Nall

Linux in the Ham Shack

Black Sparrow Media

Data Engineering Podcast

Tobias Macey

Eye On A.I.

Craig S. Smith

Reflections

Livewire Labs