PODCAST

Doom Debates

Liron Shapira

It"s time to talk about the end of the world! lironshapira.substack.com

technology

All Episodes

77:03

DOOMER vs. BUILDER — AI Doom Debate with Devin...

Doom Debates ·

2025/12/17

Devin Elliot is a former pro snowboarder turned software engineer who has logged thousands of hours building AI systems. His P(Doom) is a flat ⚫. He argues that worrying about an AI takeover is as irrational as fearing your car will sprout wings and fly away.We spar over the hard limits of current models: Devin insists LLMs are hitting a wall, relying entirely on external software “wrappers” to feign intelligence. I push back, arguing that raw models are already demonstrating native reasoning and

112:25

PhD AI Researcher Says P(Doom) is TINY — Debate with...

Doom Debates ·

2025/12/11

Dr. Michael Timothy Bennett, Ph.D, is an award-winning young researcher who has developed a new formal framework for understanding intelligence. He has a TINY P(Doom) because he claims superintelligence will be resource-constrained and tend toward cooperation.In this lively debate, I stress-test Michael’s framework and debate whether its theorized constraints will actually hold back superintelligent AI.Timestamps* 00:00 Trailer* 01:41 Introducing Michael Timothy Bennett* 04:33 What’s Your P(Doom)?™*

71:50

Nobel Prizewinner SWAYED by My AI Doom Argument —...

Doom Debates ·

2025/12/05

My guest today achieved something EXTREMELY rare and impressive: Coming onto my show with an AI optimist position, then admitting he hadn’t thought of my counterarguments before, and updating his beliefs in realtime! Also, he won the 2013 Nobel Prize in computational biology.I’m thrilled that Prof. Levitt understands the value of raising awareness about imminent extinction risk from superintelligent AI, and the value of debate as a tool to uncover the truth — the dual missions of Doom

135:50

Facing AI Doom, Lessons from Daniel Ellsberg...

Doom Debates ·

2025/11/29

Michael Ellsberg, son of the legendary Pentagon Papers leaker Daniel Ellsberg, joins me to discuss the chilling parallels between his father’s nuclear war warnings and today’s race to AGI.We discuss Michael’s 99% probability of doom, his personal experience being “obsoleted” by AI, and the urgent moral duty for insiders to blow the whistle on AI’s outsize risks.Timestamps0:00 Intro1:29 Introducing Michael Ellsberg, His Father Daniel Ellsberg, and The Pentagon Papers5:49 Vietnam War Parallels to AI:

110:47

Max Tegmark vs. Dean Ball: Should We BAN...

Doom Debates ·

2025/11/21

Today's Debate: Should we ban the development of artificial superintelligence until scientists agree it is safe and controllable?Arguing FOR banning superintelligence until there’s a scientific consensus that it’ll be done safely and controllably and with strong public buy-in: Max Tegmark. He is an MIT professor, bestselling author, and co-founder of the Future of Life Institute whose research has focused on artificial intelligence for the past 8 years.Arguing AGAINST banning superintelligent AI

137:48

The AI Corrigibility Debate: MIRI Researchers Max...

Doom Debates ·

2025/11/14

Max Harms and Jeremy Gillen are current and former MIRI researchers who both see superintelligent AI as an imminent extinction threat.But they disagree on whether it’s worthwhile to try to aim for obedient, “corrigible” AI as a singular target for current alignment efforts.Max thinks corrigibility is the most plausible path to build ASI without losing control and dying, while Jeremy is skeptical that this research path will yield better superintelligent AI behavior on a sufficiently early try.By

16:17

These Effective Altruists Betrayed Me — Holly Elmore,...

Doom Debates ·

2025/11/11

Holly Elmore leads protests against frontier AI labs, and that work has strained some of her closest relationships in the AI-safety community.She says AI safety insiders care more about their reputation in tech circles than actually lowering AI x-risk. This is our full conversation from my “If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies” unofficial launch party livestream on Sept 16, 2025.Timestamps0:00 Intro1:06 Holly’s Background and The Current Activities of PauseAI US4:41 The Circular Firing Squad Problem

52:41

DEBATE: Is AGI Really Decades Away? | Ex-MIRI...

Doom Debates ·

2025/11/07

Sparks fly in the finale of my series with ex-MIRI researcher Tsvi Benson-Tilsen as we debate his AGI timelines.Tsvi is a champion of using germline engineering to create smarter humans who can solve AI alignment.I support the approach, even though I’m skeptical it’ll gain much traction before AGI arrives.Timestamps0:00 Debate Preview0:57 Tsvi’s AGI Timeline Prediction 3:03 The Least Impressive Task AI Cannot Do In 2 years6:13 Proposed Task: Solve Cantor’s Theorem From Scratch 8:20 AI Has

66:30

Liron Debunks The Most Common “AI Won't Kill Us"...

Doom Debates ·

2025/11/05

Today I’m sharing my AI doom interview on Donal O’Doherty’s podcast.I lay out the case for having a 50% p(doom). Then Donal plays devil’s advocate and tees up every major objection the accelerationists throw at doomers. See if the anti-doom arguments hold up, or if the AI boosters are just serving sophisticated cope.Timestamps0:00 — Introduction & Liron’s Background 1:29 — Liron’s Worldview: 50% Chance of AI Annihilation 4:03 — Rationalists, Effective Altruists, & AI Developers 5:49 — Major Sources

40:43

Why AI Alignment Is 0% Solved — Ex-MIRI Researcher...

Doom Debates ·

2025/10/31

Tsvi Benson-Tilsen spent seven years tackling the alignment problem at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI). Now he delivers a sobering verdict: humanity has made “basically 0%” progress towards solving it. Tsvi unpacks foundational MIRI research insights like timeless decision theory and corrigibility, which expose just how little humanity actually knows about controlling superintelligence. These theoretical alignment concepts help us peer into the future, revealing the non-obvious,

47:27

Eben Pagan (aka David DeAngelo) Interviews Liron —...

Doom Debates ·

2025/10/29

I’m excited to share my recent AI doom interview with Eben Pagan, better known to many by his pen name David DeAngelo!For an entire generation of men, ‘David DeAngelo’ was the authority on dating—and his work transformed my approach to courtship back in the day. Now the roles reverse, as I teach Eben about a very different game, one where the survival of our entire species is at stake.In this interview, we cover the expert consensus on AI extinction, my dead-simple two-question framework for

49:27

Former MIRI Researcher Solving AI Alignment by...

Doom Debates ·

2025/10/25

Former Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) researcher Tsvi Benson-Tilsen is championing an audacious path to prevent AI doom: engineering smarter humans to tackle AI alignment.I consider this one of the few genuinely viable alignment solutions, and Tsvi is at the forefront of the effort. After seven years at MIRI, he co-founded the Berkeley Genomics Project to advance the human germline engineering approach.In this episode, Tsvi lays out how to lower P(doom), arguing we must stop AGI

47:36

Robert Wright Interrogates the Eliezer Yudkowsky AI...

Doom Debates ·

2025/10/23

Today I'm sharing my interview on Robert Wright's Nonzero Podcast where we unpack Eliezer Yudkowsky's AI doom arguments from his bestselling book, "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies." Bob is an exceptionally thoughtful interviewer who asks sharp questions and pushes me to defend the Yudkowskian position, leading to a rich exploration of the AI doom perspective. I highly recommend getting a premium subscription to his podcast: 0:00 Episode Preview 2:43 Being a "Stochastic Parrot" for Eliezer

77:41

Climate Change Is Stupidly EASY To Stop — Andrew...

Doom Debates ·

2025/10/17

Today I’m taking a rare break from AI doom to cover the dumbest kind of doom humanity has ever created for itself: climate change. We’re talking about a problem that costs less than $2 billion per year to solve. For context, that’s what the US spent on COVID relief every 7 hours during the pandemic. Bill Gates could literally solve this himself.My guest Andrew Song runs Make Sunsets, which launches weather balloons filled with sulfur dioxide (SO₂) into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight and cool

157:59

David Deutschian vs. Eliezer Yudkowskian Debate: Will...

Doom Debates ·

2025/10/10

I’ve been puzzled by David Deutsch’s AI claims for years. Today I finally had the chance to hash it out: Brett Hall, one of the foremost educators of David Deutsch’s ideas around epistemology & science, was brave enough to debate me!Brett has been immersed in Deutsch’s philosophy since 1997 and teaches it on his Theory of Knowledge podcast, which has been praised by tech luminary Naval Ravikant. He agrees with Deutsch on 99.99% of issues, especially the dismissal of AI as an existential threat.In

23:02

Debating People On The Street About AI Doom

Doom Debates ·

2025/10/04

We took Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares’s new book, If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies, on the streets to see what regular people think.Do people think that artificial intelligence is a serious existential risk? Are they open to considering the argument before it’s too late? Are they hostile to the idea? Are they totally uninterested?Watch this episode to see the full spectrum of reactions from a representative slice of America!---Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent

64:05

Wes & Dylan Join Doom Debates — Violent Robots,...

Doom Debates ·

2025/10/02

Welcome to the Doom Debates + Wes Roth + Dylan Curious crossover episode!Wes & Dylan’s host a popular YouTube AI news show that’s better than mainstream media. They interview thought leaders like Prof. Nick Bostrom, Dr. Mike Israetel — and now, yours truly!This episode is Part 2, where Wes & Dylan come on Doom Debates to break down the latest AI news.In Part 1, I went on Wes & Dylan’s channel to talk about my AI doom worries:The only reasonable move is to subscribe to both channels and watch both

5:04

The Merch Store Is Open For Business!

Doom Debates ·

2025/10/01

I’m excited to announce the launch of Doom Hut, the official Doom Debates merch store!This isn’t just another merch drop. It’s a way to spread an urgent message that humanity faces an imminent risk from superintelligent AI, and we need to build common knowledge about it now.What We’re OfferingThe Doom Hut is the premiere source of “high P(doom) fashion.” We’ve got t-shirts in men’s and women’s styles, tall tees, tote bags, and hats that keep both the sun and the doom out of your eyes.Our signature

161:43

Are We A Circular Firing Squad? — with Holly Elmore,...

Doom Debates ·

2025/09/27

Eliezer Yudkowsky can warn humankind that If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies and get on the New York Times bestseller list, but he won’t get upvoted to the top of LessWrong.According to the leaders of LessWrong, that’s intentional. The rationalist community thinks aggregating community support for important claims is “political fighting”.Unfortunately, the idea that some other community will strongly rally behind Eliezer Yudkowsky’s message while LessWrong “stays out of the fray” and purposely

11:48

Ex-OpenAI CEO Says AI Labs Are Making a HUGE Mistake...

Doom Debates ·

2025/09/26

Ex-Twitch Founder and OpenAI Interim CEO Emmett Shear is one of the rare established tech leaders to lend his name and credibility to Eliezer Yudkowsky’s warnings about AI existential risk.Even though he disagrees on some points, he chose to endorse the new book If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies:“Soares and Yudkowsky lay out, in plain and easy-to-follow terms, why our current path toward ever-more-powerful AIs is extremely dangerous.”In this interview from the IABED launch party, we dive into

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