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PODCAST

RenMac

Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer ..........This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC.This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to

business investing

All Episodes

24:24

RenMac Off-Script: Losing Control

RenMac ·

2023/11/10

RenMac discusses what Tuesday’s election results mean for next year, the Republican debates, the emergence of new third-party presidential candidates, why yields are coming down and how that is impacting equities, how the usually boring treasury auctions are becoming more interesting, why the latest unemployment report may impact the Fed by opening the door to cuts, and whether Treasury and the Fed are losing control over the fiscal situation.

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23:23

RenMac Off-Script: Nonlinear Risks

RenMac ·

2023/11/03

RenMac discusses how the soft payroll print will impact the Fed, how the recent strikes may have impacted the data, why good things happened to housing, the anti-momentum trade heading into yearend, the importance of Nov. 17th to the gov’t shutdown, and Biden-Xi’s APEC meeting, and why Nikki Haley may have a low ceiling in the GOP primary.

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17:02

RenMac Off-Script: Fed vs. GDP

RenMac ·

2023/10/27

RenMac discusses why Gavin Newsom is meeting with Xi Jinping, why “Mike Johnson” is a leading Google search, the momentum behind 3Q GDP, why the Fed is more forecast vs data dependent, how fiscal stimulus is likely to pressure yields, the deteriorating breadth in equities in the face of strong seasonality.

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18:28

RenMac Off-Script: Don’t Follow the Easy Path

RenMac ·

2023/10/20

RenMac discusses Powell’s speech on the outlook, why the Fed is probably done for 2023 but why the economy is not, why builders might be a buy despite elevated rates and why gold is a sell despite high geopolitical tensions, and the latest in Jim Jordan’s ongoing fight to become Speaker of the House.

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21:48

RenMac Off-Script: House of Horrors

RenMac ·

2023/10/13

RenMac discuss the latest political drama around the House Speakership race, the prospect of an acting Speaker working with Democrats, why the upside surprise in inflation this week does not change the Fed’s near-term calculus, why it is not worth using geopolitical events as a basis for a market call, and why the rise in yields is providing an alternative to stocks.

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22:47

RenMac Off-Script: Grasping At Straws

RenMac ·

2023/10/06

The RenMac team discusses the upside surprise in payrolls, why the bears are grasping at straws, how the UAW strike could impact future prints, the increased yield sensitivity of sectors, how McCarthy’s ouster adds to the D.C. drama, the seasonal impact on markets, and how tactical conditions are providing an opportunity for the bulls.

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17:50

RenMac Off-Script: Cracking Gold

RenMac ·

2023/09/29

The RenMac team discusses why hiking is harder for the Fed, the danger of focusing on headlines rather than data, cracks in gold, well-behaved BBB spreads, why a rally without beta is troublesome, more motion than progress on avoiding a gov’t shutdown, and the politics of replacement regarding the Senate seats for Feinstein and Menendez.

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16:47

RenMac Off-Script: No Capitulation

RenMac ·

2023/09/22

The RenMac team discusses why the gov’t shutdown could last a while, why the market reaction was more surprising than the Fed’s decision to erase cuts for next year, why the Fed is unlikely to hike in December either, why the 2-year yield and BBB spread usually respond Fed but not this time, not yet oversold in equities, close to improving seasonality, and why Trump is going to the MI and not the second GOP debate.

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16:47

RenMac Off-Script: 3Ss (Shutdown, Strike, and Student...

RenMac ·

2023/09/15

The RenMac team discusses the odds and economic impact (or lack thereof) of a gov’t shutdown, why not all inflation data is created equal, whether short-term soft-landing enthusiasm now could lead to inflationary consequences later, why reduced volatility in line with credit conditions, intra-market correlation, and the decline in Bitcoin..Also, please join us Monday at 11am for a call with former World Bank President David Malpass. CLICK HERE to Register

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20:47

RenMac Off-Script: Fed Following Financial Flow

RenMac ·

2023/09/08

The RenMac team discusses recent polling around Biden’s age, Nikki Haley’s chances, the anecdotal wage stories, responding to capital conditions, what the firming energy story is saying, and Neil’s recession odds for next year.

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13:56

RenMac Off-Script: Data Deluge

RenMac ·

2023/09/01

Neil and Steve digest the economic data dump, why August may have been a peculiar month that understated jobs, why cyclicals are looking stronger, why the Fed may still be in the woods, the disconnect between data and voter perceptions of Bidenomics, the September UAW strike, why Mitch McConnell matters, 2024 politics and the Fed.

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18:30

RenMac Off-Script: Fireworks in Russia not the GOP...

RenMac ·

2023/08/25

RenMac discusses Trump’s GA mugshot strategy, Neil’s opinion on the Indian guy and gal in the Republican primary, why Bullard sounds like Neil on the U.S. economic outlook, BBB-spreads not following the breakout script, cracks in consumer discretionary could be causing top-formations, previewing Powell at Jackson Hole, and Putin’s power move with the Prigozhin explosion.

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21:05

RenMac Off-Script: Retail Robustness

RenMac ·

2023/08/18

RenMac discusses the breakout in 10-year yields, why Neil thinks the Fed is still offsides on growth, the political impact (or lack thereof) of the latest Trump indictment, first oversold S&P condition since last fall, early internal indications of an uptrends, and the early expansion in the put/call ratio.

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13:59

RenMac Off-Script: Suckers for a Soft-Landing?

RenMac ·

2023/08/11

Neil and Steve discuss the Biden administration’s actions towards China, how the Fed might be getting sucked into the soft-landing story, and whether the Fed still has more work to do in the context of an above-trend growth economy.

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22:46

RenMac Off-Script: Still In The Woods

RenMac ·

2023/08/04

RenMac discusses why the latest payroll print will not provide comfort to the Fed, why employment is slowing as the economy is ramping up, why China charts are looking better than their economic reports, whether the 2024 election will resemble 2020 or 2016, how Manchin’s third-party threat could help rather than hurt Biden-s re-election, the politics surrounding the Fitch downgrade, and the Japanese yen trade following the BoJ pivot.

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19:20

RenMac Off-Script: Precision vs. Accuracy

RenMac ·

2023/07/28

RenMac discusses the bullish GDP data, receding recession risk, knowing what you don’t know, the low odds of pulling off two soft-landings, how relying on doubtful data and rigidity has led to capitulation, precision vs. accuracy, Mitch McConnell’s health, the increased impeachment inquiry odds following the Hunter Biden plea deal collapse, why extreme beta is more likely to be a liability than in asset, and keeping an eye on the yen.

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15:48

RenMac Off-Script: Betting on Beta

RenMac ·

2023/07/21

RenMac discusses how to adjust the different economic outlook scenarios based on recent data, why a third-party candidate would pull more votes away from Biden, how Biden’s green push is costing him the support of autoworkers (and Springsteen a song), and the risks of betting on beta.

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16:15

RenMac Off-Script: Lower Inflation = Less Fed Pressure

RenMac ·

2023/07/14

RenMac discusses how the latest inflation report will take pressure off the Fed and increases the odds of a soft landing, why bull steepening is more of a recession signal than an inverted yield curve, why markets reacted accordingly, whether Bidenomics will help or hurt inflation and Biden’s re-election effort.

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15:04

RenMac Off-Script: Keeping Dry Powder

RenMac ·

2023/07/07

Renmac discuss why our elevated yield impact model and seasonality favors keeping some dry powder, but not the same type found in the White House this week. How cocaine-gate is overshadowing the “Bidenomics” push? Why the latest payroll print shows no signs of recession and is unlikely to prevent the Fed from hiking two more times this year? All in today’s episode.

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13:43

RenMac Off-Script: Bull Boost

RenMac ·

2023/06/30

The RenMac team discusses Neil’s ten-year anniversary trip and why he feels there will be no recession, the durable strength of the consumer, why the Fed may not deliver the shock needed for the bears, why cyclicals are consistent with a bull market, and the odd situation in Russia.

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277 results

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